With tensions rising along Europe's borders, the European Union has declared that its new defensive measures will help the bloc confront Russia and other threats by 2030. But is this a credible reality? And how prepared are Europeans for a potential conflict?
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, combined with continued pressure from the United States, has left the European Union with an uncomfortable choice: to focus seriously on its defense and security capacity.
The risks remain high, as there are no signs that the war in Ukraine is nearing an end. At the same time, confidence in Europe's capabilities is low, as the continent appears vulnerable and unprepared, both militarily and diplomatically, the Telegraph reports.
Europe’s main commitment is to defend itself, while continuing to support Ukraine. In December last year, EU leaders agreed on a new €90 billion loan for Ukraine, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced new defense initiatives in October, which she presented as steps to strengthen Europe’s defenses against Russia and other adversaries by 2030.
Adding to the tension, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on December 2 that Russia is ready to fight if necessary and will leave "no one to negotiate with."
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that "we are Russia's next target" and that an attack on the alliance could occur within the next five years.
The US national security strategy criticized Europe and its agenda, labeling it a weak ally. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius echoed the warnings of military historians in November, declaring that “we have already had our last summer of peace.”
The main concern is clear: Europeans now believe that a Russian attack on NATO or neighboring countries is increasingly likely, creating a strong sense of urgency for action.
Are Europeans ready for war?
A recent survey of Euronews asked “Would you fight for the EU’s borders?” The results showed great reluctance to face the prospect of war. Of the 9950 participants, three out of four (75 percent) said they would not be willing to take up arms. Nineteen percent said they would be willing to fight, while 8% remained undecided, reflecting uncertainty about their personal readiness and the level of preparation of their country for a potential conflict.
A YouGov poll found that Russian aggression is perceived as one of the biggest threats to Europe, with 51 percent in Poland, 57 percent in Lithuania and 62 percent in Denmark identifying it as their main concern. “Armed conflicts” were also ranked as the third biggest concern among Europeans.
However, while European leaders share these concerns, it is mainly the Baltic states - Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia - that have taken more decisive steps. These states are located on the eastern border of NATO and the EU and share a border with Russia and Belarus of more than 1000 kilometers.
Lithuania has begun building “drone walls” and, in collaboration with Latvia, is restoring marshes as natural defenses. They have also launched national awareness campaigns, resilience exercises and television training to help citizens mentally prepare for a potential conflict.
Last year, Lithuania's Interior Ministry published maps of shelters and emergency hotlines, while Latvia added a mandatory national defense course to the public education curriculum. Poland built barriers along its border with Belarus and introduced security courses in schools, including weapons training for youth from the age of 14.
Finland and Estonia sent families instruction booklets on how to act during war, reviving Cold War practices. Sweden launched a national initiative in 2025 to distribute updated “If Crisis or War Comes” booklets to every family. All three countries also integrated defense into educational curricula, with Estonia introducing a special national defense course in high schools in 2023.
In parallel, there is a noticeable increase in citizens' interest in civil preparedness. In countries close to Russia, such as Finland, Estonia, Poland, Lithuania and Sweden, Google searches over the past five years for topics such as “what to take with me for war or evacuation” and “where are the bomb shelters near me?” have increased significantly, reaching a peak in 2025.
What is Brussels doing?
Despite the potential panic, national governments are not the only ones acting to increase defense capabilities. At the EU level, initiatives have been taken to improve the bloc's capacity for an "any-case" scenario.
Defense budgets in Europe have increased by over 300 billion euros in 2024. The 2028-2034 CFSP proposal presented by Ursula von der Leyen allocates an additional 131 billion euros for aerospace and defense - five times more than the previous budget.
The “Readiness 2030” plan, adopted by all 27 member states, aims to close capability gaps and accelerate military response, enabling the movement of troops and equipment within three days in peacetime and within six hours during emergencies, through the creation of a “Military Schengen” framework.
The EU is developing a network of military transport corridors, including roads, railways and ports reinforced for heavy vehicles. Around 500 critical infrastructure points, such as bridges and tunnels, have been identified for improvement, to handle vehicles over 60 tonnes.
The plan also aims to standardize the equipment and logistical procedures of EU armed forces, which currently operate on incompatible systems. The cost of these improvements is estimated at between 70 and 100 billion euros, with funding from national budgets and EU programs, such as the Connecting Europe Facility.
One of the main tools is ReArm Europe, launched in 2025, a central platform for the coordination of industrial capacity and defence readiness. Two mechanisms under this umbrella are EDIP, the European Defence Industrial Programme, and SAFE, the Strategic Armaments Financing Envelope.
EDIP offers €1.5 billion in co-financing for projects involving at least three EU countries or two plus Ukraine. SAFE offers a €150 billion loan facility for joint arms purchases, reducing costs and accelerating procurement.
These initiatives aim to pool resources, improve negotiations, and ensure the interoperability of new defense systems.
Why is the US pushing Europe towards rearmament?
The security strategy of the administration of US President Donald Trump in December 2025 criticized Europe as a weak partner, calling for the continent to take over most of NATO's responsibilities by 2027, including intelligence and missile systems.
At the NATO summit in The Hague, allies agreed to invest 5 percent of GDP each year in defense until 2035, while current European contributions are lower.
The US strategy also criticized European policies on migration, fertility, freedom of speech, and support for Ukraine.
Washington's goal is to normalize relations with Russia or "restore strategic stability," presenting Russia neither as an ally nor as a clear adversary.
European officials, such as Valdis Dombrovskis, Antonio Costa and Kaja Kallas, rejected this criticism, emphasizing the EU's determination to act despite US warnings and defending domestic democratic decisions.
European defense challenges
Although Europe is rearming, experts warn that political urgency is not enough. Seamus Boland, president of the European Economic and Social Committee, noted that Europe remains an easy target for dictatorships, as it is not forced to live by the same standards as autocratic countries.
Structural obstacles continue to constrain defense efforts, as Thomas Regnier of the Technology and Defense Sovereignty Commission pointed out. The Commission is accelerating changes with “mini-omnibus” regulations and broader plans to cut production delays and speed up procurement.
The European defence industry is competitive but fragmented. Deeper coordination is essential for the financing, development, production and maintenance of defence capabilities. SAFE and other mechanisms aim to accelerate joint procurement and reduce dependence on suppliers outside the EU, ensuring “independent use” of European defence equipment.
The SAFE plans include 691 projects, with a main focus on joint procurement for air defense, missiles, drones, anti-drone systems and maritime capabilities, with an upfront funding of up to 22.5 billion euros that could be released in March 2026.
The time frame is tight. Europe must modernize its defense industry, support Ukraine, and respond to security warnings from NATO and the US.
Success will depend on deep cooperation, closing capability gaps, and maintaining support for Ukraine. In this environment defined by urgency, the challenge for Europe is not whether it should act, but whether it can act fast enough. /Telegraph/
