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Vogel: Trump does not have dialogue among his priorities, territory exchange may return to the table

Vogel: Trump does not have dialogue among his priorities, territory exchange may return to the table
Toby Vogel

Toby Vogel, a fellow at the Brussels-based Democratization Policy Council, commented on the impact of the Trump administration and developments in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

In an interview with Telegrafi, Vogel expressed skepticism about the priority the US administration gives to this issue.

He warned that the idea of ​​exchanging territories could return to the agenda once the mid-level team at the State Department is consolidated.


"I suspect that the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia is on the Trump administration's priority list. I think that once the mid-level staff is established in the State Department, I would not rule out that the idea of ​​a 'territory swap' – that is, the partition of Kosovo – would return," Vogel declared.

According to him, the lack of a fundamental change in the Western approach to dialogue has created a situation where Belgrade has no incentive to compromise, which also affects Pristina's approach.

"I don't think the main problem between Serbia and Kosovo lies with the government in Kosovo. Of course, a government that works for better relations with Western allies would be beneficial, but a major change in the Western approach remains difficult to achieve," Vogel declared.

In the first Trump administration, from 2017 to 2021, there were some officials, such as the then national security adviser, John Bolton, who did not rule out the option of "territorial corrections" between Kosovo and Serbia.

"We will not be an obstacle, and I don't think anyone in Europe will stand in the middle, if the two parties to the conflict reach a satisfactory agreement," Bolton said in August 2018.

That same month, even the then president of Kosovo, Hashim Thaçi, revealed his idea for correcting the borders with Serbia at a forum in Austria.

Similarly, the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, has spoken about the division between Serbs and Albanians.

Although no one has offered concrete proposals, it has been rumored that the north of Kosovo, inhabited by a majority of Serbs, should be exchanged with the south of Serbia, where the Albanian population lives.

These ideas, both in Kosovo and in Serbia, have met with reactions for and against.

Even Kosovo's main allies in Europe, Britain and Germany, have said that calls for changing the borders of the Balkans could bring destabilization.

For the Government of Kosovo, the exchange of territories with Serbia, as an opportunity to resolve disputes, should not be discussed.

"The Kosovo government rejects projects and solutions of a territorial nature," the Kurti government declared during 2024.

Serwer: Grenell's return could lead to the division of territories in the Balkans

Professor at the American University, Johns Hopkins, Daniel Serwer, stated months ago that ideas about dividing territories in the Balkan region could return if Richard Grenell secures a high position in the new American administration.

However, it emphasizes that the war in Ukraine and China are among the top priorities of the United States of America.

"Everyone is waiting to see what approach the new American administration under the leadership of Republican leader Donald Trump will take in the Western Balkans."

"At this point it is difficult to predict what approach the new US administration will have in the Western Balkans. But what I can say is that currently the Balkan region is not a top priority for Washington. For the US, the priority is the war. in Ukraine, China, tariffs and other issues. So, at the highest levels in the US, no one is thinking about the Balkans," he says.

He further adds that with Grenell's eventual return, ideas for dividing territories in the Balkans could also return, which according to him would be good news for Vučić and Dodik.

Trump has selected Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, as presidential envoy for special missions, a position that appears to require engagement with American adversaries, including North Korea.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, Grenell will also focus on tensions in the Balkans.

Impasse in dialogue: Meetings without concrete results

The dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which began in 2011 under the mediation of the European Union, continues to face an impasse. Recent meetings, both at the high level and at that of the chief negotiators, have ended without concrete results.

The parties constantly blame each other for non-implementation of existing agreements, while the EU has emphasized that the lack of political will is the main obstacle to progress.

Kosovo and Serbia remain divided in their positions on completing the normalization process.

Kosovo seeks mutual recognition, while Serbia insists on a compromise where "no party will be an absolute winner or an absolute loser."

The Ohrid Agreement and the challenges of implementation

In 2023, the parties reached the Ohrid Agreement, a document that the EU considered a major achievement on the path towards normalizing relations.

However, this agreement was not signed due to Serbia's refusal.

The agreement foresees a level of self-governance for the Serbian community in Kosovo and mutual recognition of state symbols.

It also demands the implementation of all previous agreements, including the establishment of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, which Serbia is insistently seeking, while Kosovo continues to reject.

The dialogue, which began as an effort to normalize relations, continues to stall in the absence of a new and common approach from the parties and international mediators. /Telegraph/