Source: The Financial Times
Translation: Telegrafi.com
Hassan Nasrallah's assassination came just days before the first anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7. By cutting off Hezbollah's head in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes it will finally have the upper hand in the battle with its regional enemies.
The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further, but Israel is likely to perceive the current moment as a golden opportunity that it should not miss. Many are now keen to seize this advantage, hoping to deliver a decisive blow not only against Hezbollah, but also against Iran - and the "axis of resistance" it leads, which includes Hamas, Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthi movement in Yemen.
After Nasrallah’s assassination, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, spoke of a potential “change in the balance of power in the region for years to come.” If Israel can seriously damage the “axis of resistance,” its achievement will be quietly welcomed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which also fear Iran and have fought against the Houthi movement.
Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that the creation of a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudi government also has good reason to fear an escalation of regional hostilities, which could threaten its ambitious development plans.
For Israel, shifting the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that began after October 7. The Hamas attack was humiliating for Israeli intelligence services. The country's reputation for always being one step ahead of its enemies was a key part of its deterrence strategy. That reputation was lost in a single day last year, when Israel was completely deceived by Hamas.
The subsequent war in Gaza has failed to restore Israel's pride or security. Despite the operation causing massive civilian deaths, Israel has not been able to release all of its hostages. He has also lost the battle for international public opinion and has been accused of genocide in hearings at the International Court of Justice.
The series of attacks on Hezbollah - starting with the roadside bombs, which killed or maimed many of the organization's infantry soldiers - has boosted the reputation of Israeli intelligence and the morale of the Israeli public. The fact that Hezbollah is hated by many Lebanese citizens and some in the wider Arab world also complicates the usual condemnation of Israel.
The destruction of Hezbollah places the Iranian government in the most dangerous international situation it has faced in decades. The presence of a powerful Iranian-backed militant force with a large arsenal of missiles — right on Israel’s northern border — was always seen as key to Iran’s deterrent power against Israel. The theory was that the Israelis would avoid a direct attack on Iran — in part out of fear that Tehran would back Hezbollah.
Now, with its hand outstretched and its ally in decline, Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it stands aside while Hezbollah is hit, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical action—perhaps including direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which it has threatened for decades.
On the other hand, if Iran were to engage directly in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk—especially since the United States could be drawn into the conflict. The Americans have pledged not to enter further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also strongly committed to Israel’s defense and have shown that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody and chaotic aftermath of the U.S.-led war in Iraq remains a fresh and painful memory in Washington. However, the fact that Iran is known to be very close to the capacity to build a nuclear weapon increases Israel’s temptation to strike now.
Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six-Day War of 1967 - a surprise and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East.
But while there are clear opportunities for Israel in the current situation, there are also great risks. Hezbollah is faltering, but it may still be able to use what remains of its rocket arsenal and repeat its strikes on major Israeli cities. If Israel carries out its threats of a ground invasion of Lebanon, it could find itself locked in an intractable conflict that lasts for years—at a time when its forces are already at war in Gaza.
In the long run, the death and destruction in Lebanon caused by Israeli airstrikes is likely to create a new generation of Hezbollah fighters. About 60 percent of Hamas fighters are thought to be orphans from previous conflicts.
Hizbollah and Hamas have been severely damaged. But Israel has not yet answered how Gaza will be governed after the end of the war. Lebanon's weak and interim government may be unable to fill the vacuum left by Hezbollah, in which case Israel may face a failed state on its borders.
Netanyahu may dream of bringing a new regional order to the Middle East. But regional chaos - with all the dangers that entails - seems the most likely outcome. /Telegraph/
