The scenarios behind Banjska and the Russian-Serbian hybrid war in Kosovo - analysis by the "Octopus" Institute

On the anniversary of the attack in Banjska, the objectives behind this violent act are being refreshed with new intensity.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has expressed strong support for Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, promoting the return of Serbian forces to Kosovo in accordance with UN Resolution 1244, it is said. in an analysis by the Octopus Institute, whose authors are Agim Musliu and Gurakuç Kuçi.

This project, recently approved by the Serbian Assembly, is gaining more and more traction in Western diplomacy, driven by the Serbian lobby, serving as an instrument to justify Belgrade's territorial ambitions.

"Russia, as the main sponsor of this process, has used Serbia's alignment with the West as a strategic tool in the hybrid war, aiming to advance its influence in the Western Balkans. This dynamic raises fundamental questions about regional stability and the challenges ahead in international politics," the analysis states.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, announced that Russia supports the initiative of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to reintroduce Serbian forces in Kosovo, in accordance with UN Resolution 1244. This statement from Moscow represents a continued commitment to Serbia's strategic interests, not simply for the implementation of Vucic's seven-point plan, published on September 13, 2024, but for a deeper and more well-calculated move.

Octopus points out that the Vucic Plan contains seven public demands on Kosovo, which effectively aim to change Kosovo's status in a way that undermines its sovereignty. Although unacceptable to any rational observer, these demands reveal a deeper purpose: to create a pretext for further action that goes beyond the diplomatic stage.

"The aim of these demands is to create the ground for a Russian-Serbian hybrid conflict in Kosovo, which could start with demonstrative measures such as civil disobedience, terrorist acts, violent protests and sporadic organized incidents. These well-organized activities aim to destabilize Kosovo and generate a narrative that justifies the new international intervention.

This intervention would include KFOR forces, the reactivation of the UNMIK mission and the return of Serbian military forces to northern Kosovo, once again invoking UN Resolution 1244.

This strategic objective became clearer on June 9, when the great All-Serbian Assembly convened. The President and the Government of Serbia, the government of the Republic of Srpska and the Serbian Orthodox Church gathered in this extraordinary session. The statement issued by this assembly is based on Articles 4 and 6, as well as Annex 2 of Resolution 1244, laying the "foundation" for the Serbian military return to Kosovo," the analysis states, Telegrafi reports.

Serbia's ambitions to occupy the north of Kosovo and legitimize it through resolution 1244

Serbia is trying to justify its return to Kosovo – whether through hybrid warfare, terrorist acts or changes in the geopolitical landscape – by relying on the narrative of its rights under UN Resolution 1244. This strategic aim was confirmed on 9 June during the Great War. Assembly of Serbia, held between representatives of Serbia, Republika Srpska and the Serbian Orthodox Church.

"In this assembly, a statement was approved emphasizing Kosovo and the role of Resolution 1244 as a legal basis for Serbia's claims to restore its presence. The statement cites articles 4 and 6, as well as annex 2 of the resolution, claiming that these legitimize Serbia's right to restore its presence in Kosovo.

This assembly followed the Council of the Russian Orthodox Church, held on March 27-28 by the Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), which adopted an ideological and political document entitled 'The Present and Future of the Russian World', addressed to the legislature and the executive Russian. the authorities. In this document, the deputy of the ROC declared that Russia is the creator, pillar and protector of the Russian world, asserting that the borders of this spiritual and cultural world extend beyond the current territory of the Russian Federation. This document also sanctified Russia's war in Ukraine, framing it within the broader context of efforts to preserve a Russian civilized order," the analysis continues.

Banjska attack as a diplomatic-military scenario

The All-Serbian Grand Assembly was originally scheduled for May 5-6, shortly after Vucic's statement threatening the West that any attempt to admit Kosovo to the Council of Europe would provoke Serbia's anger, predicting geopolitical changes that would allow for direct action against Kosovo. However, this assembly was postponed to June 9 to await the outcome of the Council of Europe's decision on Kosovo and its enhanced status in NATO, moving from an observer state to an associate member.

These repeated attempts by Serbia to destabilize Kosovo and its continued threats followed the failed plan involving the terrorist act in Banjska, in Zveçan, which failed to ignite a Serbian uprising in northern Kosovo. This preconceived scenario aimed to create a war situation that would require international intervention – both diplomatically and militarily through KFOR – to impose the division of the North, similar to the developments of 1999.

In detail, Serbia's strategy was designed to respond to Kosovo's efforts to expand its sovereignty in the north and to dismantle the illegal structures operating there. Since the international community did not take concrete steps to protect the interests of Vucic-linked criminal groups in northern Kosovo, Serbia's alternative plan was to use force and manipulate "grievances" through acts of terror. This option was considered the most appropriate to achieve Serbia's regional objectives.

What was Serbia's plan in Banjsk?Is it to promote the division of Kosovo?

On September 24, 2023, Serbia carried out a well-coordinated action in the north of Kosovo through a well-trained and armed group. The purpose of this operation was to incite the indignation of Serbian citizens against the institutions of Kosovo, leading to an armed conflict. This scenario was designed to cause casualties on both sides, forcing the Kosovo authorities to react with harsh measures and disproportionate use of force to suppress the rebellion.

In this context, international intervention - diplomatic and military - would become inevitable. EULEX would be engaged as a second responder, while KFOR would act as a third force to prevent the escalation of violence. This intervention would lead to the creation of a sanitary cordon along the dividing line, similar to that of 1999. Afterwards, this area would fall under the administration of the United Nations, with the governing authority UNMIK, which due to lacking effective capacities, would be forced to cooperate with criminal structures linked to Serbia.

Octopus further states that in this way, the terrorist acts of the group led by Milan Radoicic would be transformed into legitimate actions as "liberation". This would pave the way for a strong reactivation of Resolution 1244. Serbia would take full advantage of this circumstance to restore its military presence in Kosovo, referring to articles 4 and 6, as well as annex 2 of the resolution. This document, which once called for the withdrawal of Yugoslav-Serbian forces from Kosovo, contains a provision that allows the return of Serbian personnel for specific tasks—protection of border points, protection of Serbian monuments and aid in demining—with international approval. presence, namely KFOR.

By crafting a fictitious narrative of international law and taking advantage of the geopolitical circumstances and appeasement policies of the West, Serbia would successfully occupy northern Kosovo.

How Russia Manipulated the West with a "Pro-Western" Serbia

The implementation of this plan would hit the very foundations of Kosovo's citizenship. A Kosovo reduced in its state functionality, constrained by international pressure to refrain from using force against Serbs in the north, deprived of its natural resources and unable to produce its own electricity, would face challenges. existential. In such a situation, Kosovo would be forced to seek a survival solution. Faced with such a crisis, the most likely scenario would be a return to a form of international administration and not a union with Albania, as the latter would provoke discontent and further destabilization in the Western Balkans.

Octopus points out that the failure of the action on September 24, 2023, forced Serbia and Russia to temporarily stop the implementation of these schemes, but they realized that a new diplomatic approach was necessary to achieve their objectives.

"With the support of Russia, Serbia adopted a new strategy, improving its image on the international stage through carefully curated moves: providing military aid to Ukraine and Israel, participating in peacekeeping forces in Lebanon and selling lithium Europeans. These actions were aimed at deceiving international opinion and creating a moderate facade for Serbia. After achieving a certain level of credibility on the international stage, Serbia and Russia resumed plans for the return of Serbian forces to Kosovo.

Throughout this period, Serbia has constantly raised the issue of Resolution 1244 on the diplomatic table, emphasizing the protection of its rights and the victimization of Serbs. This confession has not only served as a diplomatic tool for consolidating Serbia's claims, but has also influenced international opinion, and even certain segments of opinion in Kosovo itself. Through this manipulation, Serbia has reinforced the notion that Kosovo is dependent on Resolution 1244, bypassing the decision of the International Court of Justice and ignoring the inclusion of this resolution in the Constitution of Kosovo," the analysis states, among other things.

According to the Octopus Institute, it is no coincidence that Zakharova made her statement in support of the return of Serbian troops to Kosovo at this moment. This move would not only escalate the situation on the ground, but also give Russia the opportunity to distract the West and intensify its hybrid war in the Western Balkans. Serbia, taking advantage of this situation, would take advantage of the chaos and seek to advance its geopolitical agenda in the region.

Conclusions:

The armed attack in Banjska on September 24, 2023, Russia's support for the return of Serbian troops to Kosovo based on Resolution 1244 and the "pro-Western" positioning of Serbia that aims to lobby for its rights under the same resolution are elements of a strategy of Russian-Serbian planned.

This strategy aims to deceive international actors and create the conditions for the territorial division of Kosovo and ultimately its disintegration as a state. Among other things, this would pave the way for a strong return of Russian influence in the Western Balkans, where Russia has already expanded its presence through hybrid warfare in most countries of the region.

Serbia's claims of a "pro-Western" approach and its commitment to European integration are, in fact, part of a sophisticated diplomatic game within the framework of a hybrid war orchestrated by Russia. This manipulation aims to undermine the structures of the European Union and NATO from within, creating divisions and institutional weaknesses in the face of authoritarian influences.

These Russian-Serbian plans, which are becoming increasingly clear, should serve as a wake-up call to politicians, diplomats and the public, both in Kosovo and in the West. Stronger engagement from these actors is essential to oppose this destabilizing strategy and to protect Kosovo's sovereignty and the stability of the region. /Telegraph/