When Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his failed coup against President Vladimir Putin on June 23, he appeared to be riding a wave of popular support as his forces marched toward Moscow.
This was the biggest challenge to Putin's authority in two decades, and he urgently needed to consolidate his power base, restore his authority and eliminate any threat to his rule.
And an intervention by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko convinced Prigozhin to abandon his failed march on Moscow and also helped Putin remove Wagner's persistent threat by offering to host the mercenary group of fighters in Belarus.
That intervention was invaluable to Putin and gave Lukashenko rare leverage in his usually subdued relationship with the Russian leader.
But as soon as Putin reasserted his authority, his attention turned to Wagner, and more specifically to their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, writes military analyst, Sean Bell, Telegraph reports.
In his Sky News piece, Bell points out that although Wagner had provided Russia with rare battlefield success in the Ukraine war - most notably in taking Bakhmut - and Putin relies on Wagner to provide invaluable revenue-generating military services in Africa and beyond, Putin had to limit the potential for any repeated coup attempts.
Thus, he points out, Wagner forces that moved into Belarus were offered the option of joining the Russian defense ministry, or being transferred to Wagner operations abroad. Those who refused were left in Belarusian camps.
But mercenary forces must be paid or risk becoming “guns for hire.” Lukashenko seemed to assume that Russia would pay their salaries.
So when Russia refused, Lukashenko was faced with a difficult choice: fund Wagner's mercenaries and risk fomenting internal unrest, or expel the remaining mercenaries from his country.
Aware that Lukashenko has his own ambitions – Bell points out – many analysts believe that he still aspires to be Putin's successor – he may have judged that the Wagner forces stationed in Belarus could be useful if the war in Ukraine escalates and threatens Belarusian territory.
However, it now seems likely that whatever "deal" Lukashenko brokered with Putin has now expired.
So, according to him, although some Wagner fighters may remain to provide useful military training to the Belarusian military, we can expect to see the remaining Belarus-based Wagner fighters being phased out over the coming weeks. /Telegrafi/
