What does Trump's victory mean for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?

Among the most discussed topics this week in Kosovo is the approach that Donald Trump is expected to have towards Kosovo and Serbia, after his victory in the presidential race in the United States of America. What awaits the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade with his return to the White House?

Republican Donald Trump's victory in the November 5 presidential elections in the United States of America has brought uncertainty to Europe.

And, this fog also applies to the approach that his administration will have to the dialogue process for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, which is mediated by the European Union.

Those familiar with political affairs in Kosovo, Serbia and Europe say they do not expect the Brussels dialogue issue to be high on his agenda when Trump takes his second presidential term on January 20, 2025.

According to them, he has more priority issues before him, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which he has vowed to end.

Donika Emini, from the Advisory Group in Europe for Balkan Policy (BIEPAG), says that, despite the uncertainties created about the policies that Trump will have towards the European continent, "it is very likely that there will be active involvement of the USA in the process" of dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.

She even expects that there will be push from the US and the EU to achieve progress in the dialogue, but also to continue the pressure.

"The matter will return to the Association again, the matter will return to the agreements that Kosovo has pledged to implement. How it will be navigated in relation to Serbia and Kosovo is unknown, but no big change is expected in relation to the pressure that has been put on Kosovo so far regarding these issues", says Emini.

The USA and the EU constantly ask the parties to implement the agreements reached, as Kosovo has been facing constant pressure for years to establish the Association of municipalities with a Serbian majority.

Dushan Janjiq, from the Forum for Ethnic Relations in Belgrade, says that despite the fact that dialogue is not expected to be a priority for Trump, this does not mean that the "general framework" of negotiations for normalization between Kosovo and Serbia will be endangered.

He declares that he is sure that Trump will take initiatives "to shorten the procedures [of negotiations]" that started in 2011, adding that for the agreements reached, which have not been implemented, a method will be found more effective to implement "by signing individual agreements".

Previous disagreements

The degree of involvement of the Trump administration in solving the open issues between Kosovo and Serbia will also be played by previous events, as well as the people who were involved in the interaction with Kosovo during Trump's first term as president of the USA. .

"It will depend on whether the key officials who were involved in the issue between Kosovo and Serbia during Trump's first term [2017-2020], especially Richard Grenell, will take foreign policy positions or take some other position in the new administration," says Bodo Weber, senior fellow at the non-governmental Council for Democratization Policy in Berlin.

Grenell, a close associate of Trump, was also the US envoy for the Western Balkans region. The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, had a series of disagreements with Grenell, who had described the head of the Kosovar executive as "anti-American".

Meanwhile, Kurti had claimed that the American emissary had a hand in the overthrow of his first Government, in March 2020.

"In 2020, there were great tensions, especially with Grenelli. So, all these tensions, even at the individual level, can reflect in the policies, in the approach that the USA will have in Europe, and specifically in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue", says Donika Emini.

According to her, Kurti's participation in the Assembly of American Democrats, during the election campaign in the USA, could also cause trouble. But, she says that Kosovo needs a proactive approach to navigate such a situation, adding that she hopes "that Kosovo will be constructive and that this constructiveness will also reflect on the other side".

Meanwhile, Serbia, according to her, during the last four years has worked and lobbied in the USA, and has hoped that Trump will return to power. But, Emini considers that the proximity that Belgrade has with China - which Trump constantly criticizes - can be problematic.

Will the exchange of territories be updated?

Another issue that can be updated is the issue of the exchange of territories. Weber says that the Serbian president, Aleksandar Vucic, can "use Trump's return to the White House to lobby the US for an ethno-territorial 'solution'."

This topic, which Kurti opposes, was heavily discussed during Trump's first term, and was mentioned by officials in Kosovo and Serbia as a way to reach a final agreement.

Even Emini does not rule out the possibility of returning to this topic. She says that all issues can be open for discussion, due to the non-establishment of the Association or the lack of progress in the dialogue.

Trump, according to experts, may also request that the agreement for economic normalization, reached with Kosovo and Serbia at the White House in 2020, be implemented.

Weber says he expects Trump to engage in the Balkans with deals that focus on trade and the economy. /REL/