Danish intelligence: Russia could start a major war in Europe within five years

If Moscow perceives NATO as weak, Russia could be ready to wage a "full-scale war" in Europe within five years, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) has said, Politico reports.

"Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided," the report, which was published on Tuesday, said.

"This is especially true if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support European NATO countries in a war with Russia," it says, among other things, emphasizing that Russia is increasing its military capabilities to prepare for a possible war against NATO.

The updated DDIS threat assessment comes as US President Donald Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine, which enters its fourth year later this month.

The agency offers three scenarios that could occur if the conflict in Ukraine stops or escalates, working from the assumption that Russia does not have the capacity to wage war with multiple countries at the same time.

Within six months, according to the update projects, Russia will be able to wage a local war with a border country, while within two years it could launch a regional war in the Baltic Sea region.

In five years, meanwhile, it could launch a full-scale attack on Europe, provided the US does not get involved.

The agency notes that it has not influenced any potential increase in NATO's defense capabilities.

Trump has called on NATO members to increase their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, more than double the current target, and has suggested that the US could withdraw from the military alliance if its allies do not pay their way.

In 2024, Trump said he would "encourage" Russia to attack any NATO member country that failed to meet its financial obligations. /Telegraph