Iceland will not reopen negotiations for membership in the European Union. In a referendum held on Saturday, 52.8 percent of voters voted against resuming talks, while 47.2 percent voted in favor. The narrow result strips the government of the mandate to return to the negotiating table with Brussels.
But the Icelanders' vote raises a broader question for the European Union: Is the EU losing its ability to attract even stable, wealthy, and economically developed democracies, beyond arguments related to financial benefits?
On Saturday, Icelanders went to the polls to decide whether the country should reopen EU membership negotiations. The referendum did not directly decide on Iceland's membership, but on reopening negotiations, which would then have to lead to an agreement that would require another decision.
Unlike other candidate countries, where membership depends on deep institutional reforms, Iceland's case is different. It is a wealthy and stable country, closely aligned with the EU's democratic values and principles.
“In the previous accession process, 27 out of 35 negotiation chapters were opened and 11 of them were provisionally closed. Furthermore, through the European Economic Area (EEA) and Schengen, Iceland already implements a significant part of the EU legislation and is deeply integrated into the Common Market,” said Christine Leuchtenmüller, Head of the Nordic Regional Programme at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
However, according to Leuchtenmüller, Saturday's result "mainly reflects Iceland's particular political and economic circumstances" and should not "serve as a basis for drawing broader conclusions about EU enlargement," euronews writes.
The vote in Iceland also calls into question the EU's broader approach to security, particularly at a time when the bloc is increasingly relying on enlargement to boost its global influence and security.
This approach has become even more important following Russia's war in Ukraine, the deterioration of relations with Washington, and conflicts in the Middle East.
Reasons for membership
The accession negotiations with Iceland would have progressed quickly, as the country already implements a large part of the EU legislation. “In the previous accession process, 27 out of 35 negotiation chapters were opened and 11 of them were provisionally closed. Through the European Economic Area and Schengen, Iceland already implements a significant part of the EU legislation and is deeply integrated into the Common Market,” said Leuchtenmüller.
For Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir’s government, reopening accession negotiations was a key initiative. The aim was to create a stronger security shield and a more stable economic base for Iceland. Among the reasons were economic pressures, including peak inflation at 10.2 percent and interest rates at 9.25 percent, as well as urgent security threats related to instability in the Arctic and diplomatic tensions over Greenland. Adoption of the euro and membership in the EU Customs Union would have reduced living costs and helped its defense and sovereignty interests.
“Icelanders did not vote against Europe; they voted against an unnecessary membership. When a country already has the common market, Schengen and open borders, the added value of a seat at the table must be greater than the cost of sharing control over its main resource,” said Mika Aaltola MEP from the European People’s Party (EPP), shadow rapporteur in the European Parliament for the report on the EU’s diplomatic strategy and geopolitical cooperation in the Arctic.
Both Ukraine and Moldova see EU membership primarily as a security option. The Russian invasion made EU membership a key issue for Ukraine’s future, while Moldova faces interference and pressure from Russia. Both countries received official candidate status in 2022, officially opened accession negotiations in 2024, and have been progressing in parallel since then.
Membership would allow both countries full access to the EU's single market and potentially billions of euros in European funds for modernization, infrastructure and, especially for Ukraine, reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Montenegro and Albania are currently leading the accession process. Montenegro has been negotiating since 2012 and has already opened all 33 policy areas, while Albania, a candidate since 2014, has accelerated negotiations in recent years. For both countries, membership promises more investment and access to EU funds and markets. The accession process also aims to boost domestic reforms, particularly in the fight against corruption, the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law.
Candidate countries Serbia, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also see membership as a path to greater economic development and political stability, but their journey has been slower. Serbia has been negotiating with Brussels for more than a decade, but its relations with Kosovo, concerns about democratic standards and continued ties with Russia have hampered progress.
North Macedonia faces obstacles, including disputes with neighboring EU member states, while Bosnia and Herzegovina still needs significant institutional and rule of law reforms. For all three countries, membership would mean access to a market of around 450 million people, more investment and a stronger political position within Europe.
The most complicated cases are Georgia and Turkey. Georgia received official candidate status in 2023, but the accession process has stalled due to EU concerns about democratic regression and the government's political direction, despite historically strong public support for European integration.
Turkey has been a candidate since 1999 and began negotiations in 2005, making it the candidate country with the longest accession process. However, negotiations have been frozen for years due to concerns about democracy, fundamental rights and the rule of law, as well as disputes involving Cyprus.
Does EU enlargement bring benefits?
For the European Union, enlargement is primarily about security and geopolitical influence, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Bringing neighboring countries closer to the EU helps reduce instability along its borders and limits the influence of powers like Russia and China in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans.
Ukraine and Moldova are particularly important for this strategy due to their position on the EU's eastern flank. Meanwhile, the integration of the Western Balkans would bring a region that is largely surrounded by EU member states closer to European political and security structures.
A larger bloc would also represent a larger market and population, strengthening Europe's negotiating power in the areas of trade, foreign policy, energy and security, at a time when competition between the United States, China and Russia is increasing.
In economic terms, new members would expand the size of the EU's Single Market, creating new opportunities for trade and investment and helping to connect European transport, energy and supply networks. The Western Balkans, for example, constitute important transit routes between different parts of the continent and could play a greater role in European energy and infrastructure networks.
Enlargement also aims to promote democratic and institutional reforms in countries seeking membership. Candidates must meet EU standards on the rule of law, independence of the judiciary, fundamental rights and the fight against corruption and organised crime before joining.
This gives Brussels a leverage mechanism to push for reforms beyond its current borders and, at the same time, could strengthen the EU's own security by improving cooperation on issues such as migration, border management and cross-border crime.
How can a country join the EU?
EU membership is a merit-based process, requiring countries to align their values and legislation with those of the European Union. Any country can apply for EU membership, but must first meet the 1993 Copenhagen criteria.
They include stable and democratic institutions; respect for the rule of law and human rights; a functioning market economy; and the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including the full implementation of EU law. Negotiations officially start once these conditions have been met. The European Commission and the Council of the EU then grant the country candidate status. The Commission starts with a screening process to determine how prepared the candidate country is. It then has to implement EU law and, where necessary, carry out reforms in 35 policy areas, called “chapters”, divided into six thematic groups.
These include the fundamentals (such as justice, public administration, economic functioning and fundamental rights), the internal market, competitiveness, the green agenda, agriculture and cohesion, as well as external relations.
The last two chapters, “Institutions” and “Other issues”, include issues that arise during the negotiations but are not covered by any of the other chapters.
Chapters are opened individually and provisionally closed after the Commission and the Council assess that the country has made sufficient progress and implemented sufficient reforms.
Once all chapters are completed, the Commission decides whether the country is ready to become a member of the EU. Final approval is then sought from the European Parliament and the Council of the EU. If the decision is positive, the member states and the candidate country sign and ratify the accession treaty.
Negotiations can take years, although the Commission is keen to speed up the process, depending on the candidate country's reforms and political stability. The process is also taking time because each step requires unanimous approval from all member states. Hungary, for example, has blocked Ukraine's progress for years, despite the latter receiving candidate status in 2022.
Of the seven candidate countries, Montenegro is at the forefront of the process, with all chapters open and 18 of them provisionally closed. Albania has opened all chapters and provisionally closed three of them, followed by Serbia, which has opened 22 chapters and closed two. Moldova and Ukraine have opened chapters on basic foundations and external relations, while North Macedonia is still in the screening phase. Negotiations with Turkey have been stalled since 2018. /Telegraph/
