Germany's military planners are warning that recent cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns could be the beginning of a new war, according to a confidential government document seen by POLITICO.
This assessment is set out in the Operational Plan for Germany (OPLAN), a plan for how Berlin would organize the defense of German territory in a major NATO conflict, the Telegraph reports.
The planning reflects a broader shift in Germany - which has taken a central role in logistics and reinforcement planning for the alliance - as Russia has become increasingly aggressive towards European NATO countries following the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago.
The document says that hybrid measures "could essentially serve to prepare for a military confrontation."
Rather than treating cyber operations or influence campaigns as background pressure, the plan places them squarely within the logic of military escalation.
The assumption has concrete consequences for how Germany plans its role in a future conflict.
The document presents Germany as an operational base and transit corridor for NATO troops that would come under pressure early on, particularly due to its role as the alliance's main hub for force movement and support.
The 24-page document is classified as a so-called light version of the plan, which aims to coordinate civilian and military actors to define Germany's role as a transit hub for allied forces.
In a conflict scenario, Germany would become "a priority target of conventional attacks with long-range weapons systems" directed against military and civilian infrastructure, the document said.
The OPLAN defines a five-stage escalation model, ranging from early threat detection and prevention to national defense, NATO collective defense, and post-conflict recovery.
The document notes that Germany is currently operating in the first phase, where it is focused on building a common threat picture, coordinating across the government, and preparing logistical and defensive measures.
The plan also assigns a significantly expanded role to domestic military forces. Homeland security units are tasked with protecting critical infrastructure, securing troop movements throughout German territory, and supporting the maintenance of state functions while combat forces are deployed elsewhere.
Civilian structures are seen as essential to military success, with transportation networks, energy supplies, health services and private contractors repeatedly mentioned as required enablers. The document says that “numerous tasks require civilian support,” without which the plan cannot be implemented.
In recent months, Germany and its allies have faced a stream of hybrid attacks that reflect the scenarios that planners outline in the OPLAN.
Federal authorities have documented the rise of Russian espionage, cyberattacks and influence efforts targeting political institutions, critical infrastructure and public opinion, with Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt describing the country as a "daily target of hybrid warfare."
