Sweden is preparing for a scenario in which Russia could invade an island in the Baltic Sea to test NATO's response, the country's top military commander said.
According to The Times on Thursday, April 16, Swedish Defense Chief Michael Claesson warned that Moscow could carry out a limited naval operation "at any time" to test divisions within the alliance.
"It doesn't have to be particularly broad at all, but more to argue a point and wait to see what might happen politically," Claesson said.
European security officials have increasingly raised concerns about the escalation in the Baltic Sea, where Russia has increased military activity, including escorting so-called "shadow fleet" ships and interacting with NATO naval forces.
Baltic scenarios, growing concerns
Military planning has traditionally focused on a possible Russian ground attack along NATO's eastern flank, but attention is now shifting towards maritime scenarios.
"War games" have simulated possible Russian landings on strategically important islands such as Gotland in Sweden, Bornholm in Denmark, and Hiiumaa and Saaremaa in Estonia.
However, Claesson said Russia could target smaller, less prominent islands, noting that there are tens of thousands of such throughout the Baltic Sea.
In this regard, Swedish military intelligence has warned that Russia could already carry out a limited attack in the region and could expand its capabilities in the coming years.
Officials also say that an end to the war in Ukraine could allow Russia to reorganize and reposition forces closer to NATO territory.
Recent escalations around the Baltic Sea
On April 9, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that countries that allow Ukrainian drones to pass through their territory are exposing themselves to serious risks.
"If third countries have provided or are providing their territory for the flight of enemy drones, they must fully understand - and we are convinced that they do, because it has been explained to them - the risks to which they are exposing themselves," she said.
Estonia, where a Ukrainian drone recently hit a power plant chimney after being diverted by Russian air defenses, has reportedly asked Kiev to adjust its flight path to avoid Estonian airspace during attacks in the Baltics.
NATO's Baltic members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have also reported numerous airspace violations over the years, including a 2023 violation over Latvia and a September 2025 incident in which three MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, prompting the country to call a rare meeting of the UN Security Council.
The Baltic states have also increased defenses along the Russian border, particularly with the launch of the Baltic defense line in 2024. /Telegrafi/
