Following the rhetoric of official Belgrade, Milorad Dodik, president of the ruling party in Republika Srpska (RSE), declared military cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo as a threat to that entity and the Serbian people.

However, analysts at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty assess Dodik's claims as political tactics, rather than serious security assessments.

During his stay in Belgrade on April 15th, Dodik spoke about the recently signed Declaration on Cooperation in the Field of Defense and Security between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, claiming that it represents an alleged threat to RS.

The creation of defense and security policies is the responsibility of state-level institutions, while the entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina do not have a military or international security role.

Dodik's statement was preceded by similar reactions from government representatives in Serbia, who claimed that this was a provocation and a threat to regional stability.

Croatia, Albania and Kosovo signed the Declaration in mid-March which strengthens cooperation and emphasizes the importance of joint responses to security challenges, hybrid threats and other risks.

Denis Hadzovic of the Center for Security Studies in Sarajevo tells Radio Free Europe that Bosnia and Herzegovina has a clearly defined security and defense system, in which there is no room for entity-based interpretations of threats.

Hadžović stressed that any military or security threat to the entity would automatically be considered a threat to the state of BiH, stressing that there is no realistic scenario in which Republika Srpska could be threatened separately, outside the framework of the security of the state as a whole.

“Within the functioning of the BiH system, such an act would represent an attack on the integrity of the state, and all resources, institutions and the entire security system would be put in place to protect the interests of all citizens of BiH,” Hadzovic said.

Gaining political points

Apart from being the leader of the ruling party in RS, Dodik currently holds no position in the entity or state government. This did not prevent him from delivering a speech at a meeting of RS and Serbian officials in Belgrade, on behalf of the entities, with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the Serbian Army.

Speaking about the cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, which he called a military alliance, he said that RS was “monitoring the situation.” Without further argument, he declared that the aim was “to endanger Serbs,” emphasizing that BiH entity as a separate security entity, separate from the BiH state.

However, the constitutional and legal framework of BiH does not recognize such a perspective. Since the 2005 defense reform, defense, the military, and the creation of security policy have been the responsibility of state-level institutions.

Radio Free Europe's interlocutors claim that Dodik's claims fall into the realm of political rhetoric that ignores BiH's constitutional order, but that they do not represent a realistic assessment of the threats.

Political analyst Zarko Puhovski further relativizes the history of RS's vulnerability, emphasizing to Radio Free Europe that Dodik "has long since ceased to be interested in state power," but instead sends messages in line with his own interests.

Puhovski also questions the current vulnerability of the RS entity in the regional context.

A shared narrative of vulnerability

Hadzovic assesses that regional agreements are used more as a political lever than as a real security challenge, and emphasizes that cooperation between Zagreb, Tirana and Pristina "does not have major implications for Serbia."

However, as he says, this is used in political discourse to create a sense of threat to Serbian interests, rhetoric that has appeared in the statements of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić for a long time.

Vučić says Albania and Croatia have "opened an arms race in the region"

In this context, he emphasizes, Dodik's insistence on this topic in Belgrade can be seen, which indicates an attempt at political mutual reinforcement of the narrative.

"This alliance is being used as a political move, in order to give more space to the narrative about the threat to Serbian interests, or more precisely the common threat, which is then attempted to be reflected in BiH," he says.

Why does Dodik mention the 'Croatian component'?

Speaking in Belgrade, Dodik also mentioned that the "alliance" is destructive throughout the region and said that "the Croatian component, and certainly the Bosnian component, will turn towards such orientations."

Puhovski believes that Dodik's rhetoric is partly a consequence of damaged political relations with Zagreb and the "Croat component" within BiH.

"It seems that the long-standing cooperation with the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) of BiH has entered a serious crisis, if not completely disappeared. Previously, one of Dodik's people was a Croat representative in the Presidency of BiH, which forced the Croat component in BiH to cooperate with Dodik, and then with the Croatian government," says Puhovski.

As he adds, it is clear that these relationships are changing, which is why Dodik is now looking for new confessions and enemies.

“It is clear that Dodik no longer wants to cooperate with the Croatian government, or vice versa – that the Croatian authorities no longer want to cooperate with him, so he decided to take this action. And then, just in case, he included Albania and Kosovo in the story,” says Puhovski.

Apart from the RS political environment, there have been no official reactions from BiH state institutions that would label cooperation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo as a security threat.

Armin Krzalić, professor at the Faculty of Criminalistics, Criminology and Security Studies in Sarajevo, believes that Dodik's statements are part of the daily political discourse through which party representatives try to score political points.

"The Armed Forces of BiH are Bosniak, Serb and Croat, and any activity in the region cannot call this into question. Dodik probably wants to say by this that there is a problem with the Armed Forces as a single force, so they are being disbanded or that another armed force that he dreamed of is being created," he said.

Milorad Dodik has been using claims about the alleged threat to RS for years, most often in the context of relations with state institutions and international actors.

During the political crisis of 2021 and 2022, he announced his withdrawal from the Armed Forces of BiH and spoke about the formation of the RS army, explaining that this was necessary for the "defense" of the entity.

The Joint Armed Forces of BiH were formed in early 2006, following the reform of the BiH defense sector and the transfer of defense responsibilities from the entity to the state level.

The Armed Forces of BiH today also include three national regiments that follow the traditions of the Army of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Croatian Defence Council (HVO), and the Army of Republika Srpska.

Krzalić also believes that there is no real threat to either Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina in the existing security arrangements. He believes that strengthening regional cooperation should be a priority if there is a real security concern.

"However, political interests go in a different direction, everyone looks after their own interests and, if they are not part of certain agreements, immediately presents them as a threat to the security of citizens. The problem is that there is still distrust between states, so cooperation is often mistakenly presented as destabilization," he says.

The Croatian government previously told Radio Free Europe that the three countries' joint statement does not aim to create any military alliance, stressing that this is not necessary, apart from NATO membership.

Croatia and Albania are members of NATO, unlike Kosovo, whose independence is not recognized by BiH, nor by neighboring Serbia, due to opposition from politicians from RS.

Despite opposition from RS representatives, who support military neutrality modeled after Serbia, BiH cooperates with NATO and last year took an important step towards membership by adopting the Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP).

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