The latest long-term forecasts for spring 2026 show that the weakening of the La Nina phenomenon could affect seasonal weather conditions in Europe.
A trend of lower air pressure over the continent and higher pressure over the far north is predicted, a common pattern in springs associated with La Niña, which is also confirmed by historical data.
Meteorological spring includes the months of March, April and May. It is a transitional period from winter to summer, bringing a wide range of weather conditions, writes Severe Weather Europe.
Stratospheric warming
A rapid warming is currently underway in the stratosphere, which could affect the weather in late February and during March, i.e. at the beginning of meteorological spring.
Stratospheric warming is a sudden increase in temperature and pressure in the stratosphere that affects the North Pole and, over time, its effects can extend to the lower layers of the atmosphere.
Forecasts for the stratosphere, at an altitude of about 30 kilometers, show a strong heat wave, with temperatures up to 40 degrees Celsius above normal. This phenomenon is expected to favor the creation of high pressure areas over Greenland, opening up space for low pressure areas over Western and Central Europe.
This situation could bring more unstable weather, with below-average temperatures in western, central and northern parts of Europe, as well as more precipitation in western, central and southern Europe.
Weakening of La Nina
In the long term, spring weather patterns are expected to be influenced by changes in the Pacific. La Nina, the phase of lower ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, is weakening. The latest analysis shows that cold anomalies are gradually receding, while warmer anomalies are already emerging in the eastern part of the region.
Long-term forecasts signal the end of La Niña and a possible rapid transition to El Niño, which could occur as early as summer. Such rapid transitions have been recorded several times in the past. Analysis of those years shows a trend of lower air pressure over Europe during spring, with higher pressure in the north.
Historical temperature data for these periods show a trend towards below-average temperatures, particularly in the northern, central and western parts of the continent. This is linked to a more frequent north-easterly flow of air, which favours the penetration of colder air masses towards Europe.
ECMWF forecast
The European ECMWF model for spring, i.e. for the months of March, April and May, predicts the creation of a high pressure area over the North Atlantic and Southeastern Europe.
However, over the central and western parts of the continent, the trend of lower pressure is expected to continue, similar to the patterns of years when La Niña was weakening.
As a result, temperature forecasts show warmer weather towards the southeast of Europe, while in the western, northern and north-central parts a trend towards normal to below average temperatures is expected.
In terms of precipitation, a wetter spring is expected across most of the continent, which is consistent with the presence of low pressure areas.
Could there be snow?
As a transitional season, spring can still bring snowfall, especially in the first half of the season. The combined ECMWF and UK Met Office forecast for March shows below-average snowfall amounts.
However, the forecast for April appears more interesting, as it signals normal to above-average snowfall in north-central Europe, as well as towards the north and east of the continent.
This situation may be related to a more pronounced area of low pressure over central Europe during April, which, in combination with higher pressure in the north, favors northeasterly airflow and the creation of colder conditions, suitable for snowfall. /Telegraph/
