Without the collapse of Russia, Putin will not end the war in Ukraine

By: Samuel Ramani / The Daily Telegraph
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin has quietly expressed his willingness to discuss with US President-elect Donald Trump a ceasefire agreement for Ukraine. Putin's alleged position was leaked to the agency Reuters by five Kremlin insiders and gave a boost to Trump's plans to freeze the war in Ukraine early in his presidency.

These are promising signs for Trump's agenda, but is Russia ready to negotiate? The Kremlin's rhetoric suggests that the answer to this question is an emphatic "no". On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin "has repeatedly said that any option for freezing the conflict does not work for us."

Russia also rejected Turkey's proposed peace plan for Ukraine. This proposal included freezing the current battle lines, Ukraine's non-membership of NATO for at least ten years, and the deployment of international troops to a demilitarized border line in eastern Ukraine. These conditions are similar to the peace plan that Trump is expected to present to Putin.

Unless the US accepts Putin's maximalist vision, which includes the occupation of Ukrainian-controlled areas of Zaporizhia, Kherson and Donetsk, as well as the eventual exclusion of Ukraine from NATO membership, the likelihood that Russia will change its short-term approach to negotiations is few.

It is equally unlikely that Trump will accept Putin's extreme demands. Even the peace plans proposed by China and Brazil, which are more favorable to Russia, do not go beyond freezing the conflict at the current borders. Abandoning NATO's open door policy under Russian pressure would seriously damage the long-term credibility of the alliance.

While Russia is unlikely to negotiate in good faith, it still sees tactical value in diplomacy. As happened when Russian warplanes and Wagner Group mercenaries helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad retake Aleppo by force, Russia actively participated in the Astana Peace Process. While Russian forces carried out the Bucha massacre, Putin's top diplomats were toying with the idea of ​​ending the war in Ukraine during the Istanbul talks in March 2022.

Putin's phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and willingness to discuss a ceasefire with Trump are the latest signs of this game. For the Kremlin, diplomacy is a tool for psychological warfare and a delaying tactic that facilitates military advances.

When negotiations begin, Russia will almost certainly cite Ukraine's use of long-range ATACMS missiles on its territory and the occupation of Kursk as obstacles. Russia wants Ukraine to make unilateral concessions on both of these fronts.

To stop Ukraine's attacks with ATACMS, Russia can use the seder of Trump and his inner circle. While national security adviser Mike Waltz has highlighted the risks of escalation associated with Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles and Trump regularly warns of World War III, Russia will raise tensions with nuclear threats.

Prominent Russian commentators, such as former Kremlin adviser Sergey Markov, claim that Biden approved Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles to sabotage Trump's presidency. Russian diplomats will use this narrative in negotiations to reinforce the president-elect's distrust of the US foreign policy establishment.

With regard to Kursk, Russia will find it more difficult to achieve the desired result. Ukraine is determined to keep the territories in Kursk as it aims for a territory swap deal for Russian-occupied parts of Kharkiv or the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. Russia is likely to continue the protracted war at Kursk while negotiations take place.

Even if these issues are resolved, Russian obstructionism is likely to continue. Putin sees the continuation of the war as necessary for the stability of his regime. The military-industrial boom continues to prevent socio-economic upheaval. Led by the fascist philosopher Alexander Dugin, many Russian ultranationalists consider the adoption of the Minsk II Accords in 2015 a naive act of betrayal.

By authorizing a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin made a fateful deal with Russian ultranationalists. The Wagner Group's rebellion in June 2023 underscored the threat posed by their discontent, and Putin sees continuing the war as the ideal way to appease this militarized faction.

The most effective way to change Putin's calculations is to increase the cost of Russian aggression. Tougher sanctions could eventually burst Russia's wartime economic bubble and degrade its military supply chains. Long-range strikes from Ukraine could disrupt Russian energy production and prevent more North Korean forces from entering the front lines. Faced with a declining economy and a poor track record on the battlefield, Putin may be forced to negotiate in earnest.

Russia is determined to survive Western support for Ukraine and sees diplomacy as a tactic to achieve this goal. When negotiating with Putin, Trump must be aware of this reality. /Telegraph/