What should Biden do in the remaining time? To reach a peace agreement for Ukraine

Source: The Guardian
Translation: Telegrafi.com

First, the good news. The United States is talking to Russia. Then comes the bad news. Vladimir Putin was contacted not by the current president of the USA, but by a well-known admirer and skeptic of American support for Ukraine - the newly elected president, Donald Trump. Could these two facts provide a path to peace?

Two years ago, Putin made a grave mistake. It thought it could invade Ukraine and overthrow its leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but failed miserably. Ukrainian forces forced it to retreat to territories seized in 2014, considered pro-Russian. In talks in Istanbul, a few months after this failure, Putin's representatives could have accepted a ceasefire and some Western security guarantee for Kiev. Talks broke down and the West encouraged Ukraine to fight on. In a war that effectively turned into a proxy war against Moscow, the West attacked Russia and its people with the harshest sanctions ever known, while showering Ukraine with huge amounts of aid.

Since then, Western strategy has lost touch with reality. The squares of Kiev have turned into scenes where Western politicians show their courage, claim complete victory and return home again. Ukrainian cities have been destroyed, while somewhere between 60 and 80 young Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives and more than six million citizens have fled.

Western sanctions have completely failed to change Russian policy. They have strengthened a new alliance of autocracies. Their influence on inflation in the West, especially on energy prices, has undermined Western governments, helping - since the start of the war - bring down governments in Britain, Germany and now the US. As for the use of Ukraine by the West as a proxy in a "deterrent war" against Russia, only history can prove the success of these wars.

Ending the war in Ukraine is a choice for the US, without whose support Ukraine will collapse. However, the end must come through negotiations, which means a return to the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and Istanbul of 2022. There is no realistic alternative. This means a border located somewhere between "Russian" Ukraine and Kievan Ukraine. Kiev cannot retake Crimea. Russia must accept some kind of external guarantee for Ukraine's future security. Kiev must accept that this guarantee does not include NATO membership, while Russia must accept that Ukraine creates an agreement with the EU.

The BBC's Moscow correspondent reported on Monday that Putin is in good spirits after last month's BRICS summit in Kazan, attended by 36 states not aligned with the West. Given Trump's phone call, the Russian leader may be tempted to hold off on negotiations until his friend is in the White House.

This is a risk that should not be taken. Trump in office will be under great pressure from officials and allies to take a tough line and continue the fight. Currently, Putin has Ukraine in dire straits and NATO in a state of uncertainty. Before he leaves, Joe Biden should be ready to end at least one of his wars. A deal can be reached before the chaos and uncertainty of the second Trump era begins.

The US should seize this moment and offer Russia a necessary way out. Putin can present the failure as pragmatism. Who knows, then he may welcome Trump to Moscow. /Telegraph/