The murderous Assad regime has been toppled, but what will fill the void in Syria?

Source: The Guardian
Translation: Telegrafi.com

The use of the word "historic" is finally justified to describe the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime after more than 50 years of brutal dictatorship, 13 years of civil war and a world filled with suffering. The Syrian people, or at least most of them, are celebrating. They should enjoy this moment. They deserve it. This reminds us of the celebrations that accompanied the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. However, such memories carry a warning and a threat.

The warning is that joy can quickly turn to tears, and liberation to new oppression if the sudden collapse of hated but relatively stable authoritarian structures causes uncontrollable chaos. The threat is that the resulting political and military vacuum will be exploited by actors interested not in justice and reconciliation, but in power and revenge. In Syria, revenge is a dish served hot – and it's back on the menu.

The beginning of the campaign to topple Assad can be traced to Daraa, in southwestern Syria, which was the scene of a popular revolt in 2011. In this context, the successful advance of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from the base of his march in Idlib – northwest Syria – towards the capital Damascus, is a fitting conclusion: a popular revolution by the people, for the people. But no one can yet say what kind of Syrian future HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former al-Qaeda-linked jihadist and wanted terrorist who has rebranded as a national liberator, envisions. HTS has a history of human rights abuses and authoritarian rule in Idlib.

Many Syrians reportedly joined the HTS banner as Jolan's forces marched south. But other groups, with different goals and interests, are moving quickly to exploit the crisis. Among them is a coalition of Kurdish-led nationalist militias in the northeast – the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces; Turkish-backed rebel factions commonly known as the Syrian National Army; and opposition groups in the south united by hatred of Assad, but perhaps not by any other common goal.

Can the pre-war Syrian mosaic – multi-ethnic, multi-religious, extremely tolerant and secular – be rebuilt? Is Jolani a fit man to lead a nation? Who else can prevent anarchic territorial and political fragmentation? No one has answers to these questions yet. The regime's prime minister, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, announced that, unlike the wretched Assad, he would not leave and was ready to work with the rebels. Brave words and hopefully not the last.

The challenge ahead is truly daunting. The civil war has killed more than 300 people, although some estimates double this figure. About 100 people are believed to be missing or kidnapped since 2011. Where are they? A terrible reckoning has just begun. Half the population – about 12 million people – is displaced. Tens of thousands have been imprisoned without trial, tortured and abused. Prisons are now being emptied, releasing a wave of angry, bitter, physically and psychologically wounded, and revengeful people – back into a broken and now dysfunctional society. Millions of refugees, in Turkey and Jordan, can safely return home. Humanitarian and security disasters are inevitable.

Destructive foreign intervention – a constant element in Syria's history since the start of the war – is another very real threat if things fall apart. Assad's ouster represents a major loss for his main backers, Russia and Iran. Vladimir Putin intervened in Syria in 2015 after then-US President Barack Obama withdrew - prioritizing the fight against terrorism over support for pro-democracy forces. Russian air force bombers, along with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, kept Assad in power. Putin's reward was the creation of military bases and increased influence. All of these are now endangered.

For Iran, Syria's collapse is just the latest in a series of losses linked to Israel's response to Hamas' terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023. The weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Tehran's main ally in the so-called "axis of resistance," has denied Assad another important support and made Iran's position more vulnerable. It is reported that the Iranian embassy in Damascus is under attack and its diplomats have left. But neither Russia nor Iran will surrender. They will try to shape the new order according to their interests, regardless of what is best for the Syrian people.

The same can be said for Israel which, in its campaign against Hamas and other Iranian proxies, has repeatedly bombed alleged Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Damascus and other areas of Syria. Tehran sees Israel's role in Assad's downfall. Although perhaps not on purpose, Israel – following the law of unintended consequences – undoubtedly helped weaken it. Now Israel worries about a failed state on its border, control of Assad's chemical weapons and a possible resurgent threat from Islamic jihadists.

Speaking of goals, former footballer Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the president of Turkey, tops the list. He is believed to have given HTS the green light to launch its offensive after Assad rejected his efforts to create a secure border zone inside Syria. Erdoğan is obsessed with the Kurdish threat from northern Syria and Iraq. He can send more troops across the border. But did he really intend to destroy the regime and cause chaos in all of Syria? Perhaps Erdoğan can explain how this serves Turkey's interests.

If dark conspiracy theories are not to be believed, the US, Britain and Europe are as surprised by the events as Assad himself. This, in itself, represents an alarming failure of intelligence – but, on the other hand, the West's record during the Syrian war has been a consistent and shameful failure. They mostly stood by as horrific suffering, mass displacement, war crimes, illegal use of chemical weapons and other atrocities took place. Their sporadic interventions – such as Donald Trump's one-off bombing of regime military facilities in 2017, following a chemical weapons attack in Khan Sheikh in Idlib – were carried out more to ease consciences than to bring about real change. Now the West once again stands as a spectator – although the threat of state failure is urgent. "This is not our war," says Trump smugly.

There is no use asking for help even from Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf at this critical moment. Just a year ago, Assad managed to break his status as an international outcast at an Arab League summit in Riyadh. He was received with honors by leaders such as Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The unspoken message was that Assad was back. Rehabilitated. The world could do business with him again.

But this was wrong. Assad was and remains a monster. Wherever he is, he must not sleep peacefully. Meanwhile, it is up to the Syrians to save Syria. No one else will. /Telegraph/