Pushed by Russia: After Serbia, Bosnia, Hungary and Slovakia, Romania is challenging European democracy

Source: The Guardian (English title: Feeding off anger, fueled by Russia... Enter Călin Georgescu, Europe's latest radical populist)
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Politics in Romania has often been a harsh arena, especially on the right. The extremes of the Iron Guard from the 30s – a violent, anti-Semitic and ultra-nationalist politico-religious rebel militia – stood out even at a time when fascist parties were wreaking havoc in Germany, Italy and Spain. The events of that period are very instructive, considering what is happening in Europe today.

Iron Guard founder Corneliu Codreanu, a ruthless assassin who himself was killed in 1938, and his ally-turned-foe, pro-Nazi General Ion Antonescu – executed for war crimes in 1946 – have recently returned. in the center of attention. That's because both have been hailed as national heroes by Călin Georgescu, the shock winner of the first round of Romania's presidential election last weekend.

Georgescu is not a figure of the past, but a man of our times – a far-right, pro-Russian nationalist radical populist intent on making Romania "great again". His anti-globalisation, anti-NATO and Eurosceptic platform, entitled "Food, Water, Energy", emphasizes self-sufficiency and aims to return the country to its rural roots. He does not represent any traditional political party, but uses TikTok-un to reach millions of followers.

As a sustainable development specialist – described, aptly, as a “toxic waste expert” – Georgescu claims to speak for “those who feel they don't matter, but who actually matter the most”, as he puts it himself. Inflation, debt, corruption and security are key issues as the country heads to parliamentary elections this weekend, followed by a presidential runoff on December 8.

Georgescu's lead in the first round was narrow: 22 percent, against centrist candidate Elena Lasconi's 19.17 percent – ​​and Romania's Constitutional Court has ordered a recount, calling into question the outcome and timing of the runoff. If and when it takes place, it is expected that the Liberal Party and left-wing voters will switch support to Lasconi in a united effort to block Georgescu.

This unprecedented turmoil is dramatizing another pan-European concern: Russian hybrid warfare and, more specifically, election interference and disinformation campaigns via social media. Georgescut's achievement of making a profit from nothing has raised the alarm about "preferential treatment" and operations ignored by the majority. An investigation has been opened amid calls for the suspension of TikTok-ut.

However, even if Georgescu ultimately fails, the apparent attraction to his hard-right, sovereignist agenda could shift the next Parliament to the right and profoundly affect Romania's future direction.

NATO has particular reasons for concern. Earlier this year, the alliance announced a $2.7 billion expansion of its Mihail Kogălniceanu base in Constanta, on the Black Sea coast. When completed, it will be the largest NATO military base in Europe. Its presence underscores Romania's vital role in guarding supply routes to Ukraine, facilitating Kiev's grain exports and holding the front line in the West's deepening confrontation with Vladimir Putin's Russia.

But if he has his way, Georgescu will cut aid to Ukraine and limit Romania's cooperation with NATO, which he considers an unnecessary goal. He strongly criticizes the deployment of American anti-missile systems in Deveselu, in the south of Romania, calling them an unnecessary provocation for Moscow.

These developments are fueling a sense of fear in Europe, which already feels under siege – internally by extreme political parties and externally by the subversive meddling of Russia and its anti-democratic allies. Instability along the EU's southeastern flank is deepening, exacerbated by economic discontent. Fears of what Russia might do next after Ukraine are fueling support for those seeking to reconcile with the Kremlin.

The November elections in Moldova, Romania's neighboring country, provided other shocking examples of these challenges. Maia Sandu, the country's pro-Western president, won re-election by a narrow margin against an opponent representing a covert campaign inspired and funded by Russia. Sandu defeated the Moldovan version of Georgescut, pro-Kremlin outsider Alexandr Stoianoglo. Also, a referendum on EU integration, held in October, was the target of illegal attacks from Moscow.

Across the Black Sea, voters in Georgia are plunged into a political crisis after the ruling Georgian Dream party stole October's parliamentary elections. The EU has rejected the result, citing "significant irregularities", including bribery, manipulation and violence. In addition, a former Manchester City footballer, Mikheil Kavelashvili, is likely to be appointed as president.

The Georgian Dream party's authoritarianism is blamed for stalling EU membership talks. The party is seen as increasingly under the influence of Russia, which, according to reports, has been behind the scenes of the election. The powerful protests of the opposition in the streets and the boycott of the Parliament have not managed to change the result.

Brussels has expressed disappointment, while the American president, Joe Biden, has declared that he is "deeply concerned by the backwardness of democracy in the country". Despite this, few concrete steps have been taken to help. For now, it seems that success is on Moscow's side.

Similar events are taking place in other parts of South-Eastern and Central Europe. In Serbia, Bosnia, Hungary and Slovakia, right-wing political leaders follow Putin's policies and challenge the EU values ​​they claim to support. Right-wing influence fueled by Russia is even spreading to France and Germany – the traditional centers of the European project – where figures such as Marine Le Pen and Alice Weidel are gaining ground.

Populist-nationalist parties, fueled by anger over the cost of living, immigration and cultural tensions, are being bolstered by a hostile Russia waging hybrid and cognitive warfare. These are the twin enemies that are destabilizing, dividing and weakening European democracies. No country is immune to this destabilizing wave, and no country has yet found a way to stop it.

Meanwhile, another negative force is now at work. The elections in Romania are the first national elections held in a Western democracy since the victory of Donald Trump in America. Can we talk about the Trump effect? His cynical populism, national interest-oriented economics, pro-Russian stance and contempt for democratic norms embody – and, unfortunately, legitimize – all that is wrong with Europe today. Recalling the 30s, some suggest that fascism in the style of Codreanu's Iron Guard is returning. Maybe yes, maybe not. Despite the name, the situation remains dire. /Telegraph/