The return of the Irish problem

Almost exactly 20 years ago, after months of delicate and difficult talks, the leaders of the two main political camps in Northern Ireland – Catholic nationalists and republicans on the one hand; Protestant Unionists on the other hand – signed the Good Friday Agreement, ending more than 30 years of violence and bloodshed. Now, that agreement – ​​and the mutually respectful and harmonious relationship it enabled – is under threat.

The Good Friday Agreement was brokered by the prime ministers of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland – Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, respectively – with the help of United States Senator George Mitchell. (Much of the legwork had been done by Blair's predecessor, John Major.) It rested on the proposition that, as long as everyone agreed that changes to Northern Ireland's constitutional status could only come as a result of election freely democratic, people would determine allegiance to their preferred identity: British, Irish, or both.

To support peace, the agreement created a joint government for Northern Ireland, with representatives from both sides in the conflict. She also set up the Independent Policing Commission for Northern Ireland, which I chaired, with the aim of reforming the police service. Our efforts helped to reduce attacks on the police by making policemen acceptable to all groups and brought about a substantial increase in the recruitment of police officers from the ranks of Catholics.

Once the deal was signed, Britain and Ireland's status as members of the European Union made the transition particularly easy. Likewise, the border between them was more than just a dash on a map: there were no barriers, customs posts, or other dividing symbols to indicate where one country ended and another began. Trade and people could move freely between them.

In fact, their status as European partners – since Ireland became a member of the European Communities in 1973 – has long strengthened the ties between the United Kingdom and Ireland. To be clear, their violent history – which has included invasions, colonization, rebellions and famines – has left behind deep animosities. However, the European partners, not to mention that they are neighbors in an archipelago off the coast of Europe, are closely related. More than five million people in England, Wales and Scotland have at least one Irish grandparent. If we go a generation later, this number increases.

Over the past two decades, the United Kingdom and Ireland have enjoyed the fruits of a mutually respectful and peaceful relationship. There are of course many Brits who admire Ireland today: its economic growth, its cultural renaissance in literature and music, the country's attraction to immigrants from around the world, who now make up 17% of the country's population. With remarkable maturity, Ireland has left narrow clericalism behind and has become a modern and generous state.

However, major challenges are already emerging. In Northern Ireland, shared governance has broken down and the UK government is not in a strong position to help restore constructive cooperation.

In order to secure a working majority in the House of Commons after last year's disastrous snap election, British Prime Minister Theresa May and her Conservatives have struck a deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which has its roots in the most extremist unionist traditions. Consequently, the UK government appears unable to act as a good mediator.

The current Brexit talks are making things even more complicated because no one knows what deal we will get and what the consequences will be for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which will already be separated by the border. between the United Kingdom and the European Union. While many politicians say they want a barrier-free border, May and some of her colleagues have discussed leaving both the single market and the customs union, thereby putting the UK outside the tariff-free zone in which trade facilitated by common rules. Northern Ireland, they say, will have to have the same trading rules as the rest of the UK.

This leaves two options: either a barrier-free trade regime operating across the British Isles, or a hard border through Ireland. After all, the rest of the EU won't just let England, Scotland and Wales leave the single market and customs union while leaving Northern Ireland in it. This can make it incredibly easy to avoid rules, such as rules of origin, with a non-EU country exporting goods to Ireland as a conduit for trade between the EU and the UK. Similar problems arise in relation to the free movement of people within the EU – a rule to which the UK does not want to submit.

None of these challenges should come as a surprise. The warnings were given long ago; the British government simply ignored them. Potential solutions remain a mystery, but authorities will have to face the problem sooner or later.

It is certain that there is no easy technological solution. Any control system will inevitably involve physical control. The customs officials tasked with enforcing these controls will inevitably become symbols of division, and potentially a provocation for violence by republican extremists, as has happened in the past. All it will take is one attack to prompt the government to beef up security, deepening divisions and fueling more violence.

Reinstating the hard border in Ireland will be devastating, as it will undermine the Good Friday Agreement. One hopes that Ireland's leaders will impress this well on the minds of UK politicians, pushing for a solution that does not threaten Ireland's hard-won peace and the well-being of the island. /Project Syndicate/reporter.al/