The leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner Group will either end up dead or lead another coup against Moscow within six months, a journalist said.
Christo Grozev, a reporter for the highly respected investigative newspaper Bellingcat, said he was not surprised to see Yevgeny Prigozhin's short-lived rebellion take place in June.
"I said last January that Prigozhin would turn against Putin within six months - and that just fit within my time frame," he was quoted as saying. Financial Times.
He said his suspicions were sparked by the fact that there was an increase in "phone traffic" among Russia's top military, according to data obtained by Bellingcat.
"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin went on TV and called Prigozhin a traitor," Grozev said. "Everyone knows what they do with 'traitors' and Putin hasn't done that. He wants to see him dead. He can't do that yet. In six months, Prigozhin will either die, or there will be a second coup..."
Otherwise, Prigozhin led Wagner's abortive uprising in an attempt to topple Russian military leaders, whom he had feuded with for months over the war in Ukraine.
However, the rebellion, which saw Wagner's troops take a military base in southern Russia before marching on Moscow, was abruptly quashed by Prigozhin.
Wagner's boss agreed to go into exile in Belarus with many of his fighters under a deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
But aspects of that deal are now likely to "collapse," the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an update on Wednesday.
The institute stressed that Putin "has failed to decisively resolve" the issues raised by Prigozhin and Wagner after the rebellion.
Meanwhile, there are rumors circulating that hundreds of Wagner troops are leaving Belarus to return to Russia and are ready to be "activated" at the end of August, ISW said, citing sources linked to Wagner.
A Russian insider and a source connected to Wagner speculated that this may be because Lukashenko refused to finance Wagner as he expected Russia to be responsible for them.
However, the institute noted that the validity of these claims is unclear at this point, and it remains to be seen how the Wagner Group will proceed and how Putin might respond. /Telegrafi/
