If Assad falls, it's Putin and the mullahs' turn

Source: The Daily Telegraph
Translation: Telegrafi.com

The lightning offensive by Syrian rebels that brought control of Syria's second largest city, Aleppo, is a classic example of how the law of unintended consequences can cause dramatic changes on the global stage.

With so much turmoil in the Middle East, Syria's protracted civil war, which began in 2011, has become a sideshow. This is despite the fact that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has been accused of war crimes for his role in the deaths of around 500 people during the conflict and for forcing half of the country's 25 million people to flee their homes. .

While Syria is occasionally mentioned in the broader context of Israel's heavy-handed military campaign against Iranian-backed terrorist groups in Gaza and Lebanon, it is usually as collateral damage. An example is the bombing - in April - by Israel of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus which operated as a center for planning terrorist operations.

As for the Assad regime, the main concern has been to avoid involvement in Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. This is a difficult task, given that most of the terrorist group's weapons are transported from Iran through Damascus airport.

Assad's desperate attempt to avoid engaging in direct military conflict with Israel has made his regime reluctant to respond, even as Israeli warplanes have struck targets on Syrian soil. Assad's insistence on remaining neutral in Israel's war with Hezbollah led the Biden administration to seriously consider restoring relations with the regime in exchange for ending its long-standing alliance with Iran.

After the sudden capture of Aleppo by the Syrian opposition, as well as other areas in the north of Syria, these diplomatic considerations will be pushed to the background. This development has plunged the Assad regime into crisis again.

About a decade ago, when the Syrian dictator last faced a real possibility of overthrow, his regime was saved by the support received from allies in Tehran and Moscow. Iran considered it vital to keep Assad in power, to continue its efforts to extend the influence of terrorism in the Arab world. Meanwhile, the Kremlin, whose close ties to Damascus date back to the Soviet era, was keen to maintain its bases in Syria, particularly the naval facility at Tartus – the Russian Navy's only operational base in the Mediterranean.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision, following Iran's request, to intervene militarily in Syria helped turn the tide of the conflict in Assad's favor. Russian bombers destroyed rebel bases in cities such as Aleppo, while Iranian forces, including Hezbollah from neighboring Lebanon, led the ground offensive.

Unfortunately for Assad, these allies are unlikely to save his regime again to the same extent, especially given the changes in the global geopolitical landscape over the past year. The heavy losses the Russian military has suffered in Ukraine since Putin invaded in February 2022 mean Moscow is unable to divert precious resources to keep Assad in power. Russia's military presence in Syria has been significantly reduced compared to 2015 levels, as troops have been deployed to the Ukrainian front.

Iran is also under great pressure after the heavy losses that Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered in Gaza and Lebanon. While Tehran has pledged support for Assad, finding the means to do so is problematic, given Hezbollah's losses in recent months.

The weakened positions of Iran and Russia undoubtedly influenced the timing of the rebels' decision to launch an assault on Aleppo. They knew that, without the support of Tehran and Moscow, Assad's forces would struggle to defend themselves.

The maneuvers of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is pursuing an Islamist agenda to recreate the glory of the Ottoman Empire, are another important consideration in the drama unfolding in northern Syria. Erdogan is a fierce opponent of the US-backed Kurdish enclave created on the Syrian border as a result of the campaign to destroy the so-called Islamic State caliphate. By supporting the rebels, it aims to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state and at the same time put pressure on the secular Assad regime.

How this highly complex geopolitical puzzle plays out depends both on the rebels' own agenda, including territorial ambitions, and on the ability of Assad and his allies to avoid collapse.

The fall of Assad would undoubtedly constitute a strategic disaster for Russia and Iran. For Putin, the loss of military bases in Syria would add to the humiliation of Ukraine, while for Iran, the loss of its terrorist allies in Gaza and Lebanon would worsen.

Russia and Iran will be desperate to save Assad. Failure to do so would have profound consequences not only for the Syrian dictator, but also for the autocratic regimes in Moscow and Tehran. /Telegraph/