How will the German elections affect the future of Ukraine?

Ukrainian journalist Denis Trubetskoy believes that the upcoming elections in Germany are less important for Ukraine than those in the US, but the stability and resistance of Ukrainians depends on Germany's long-term support.

On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kiev. Together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he visited wounded soldiers and promised 650 million euros in military aid to be delivered in December.

In speeches and messages on social media, Scholz emphasized several times that Germany stands by Ukraine.

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But on the domestic front, Scholz's surprise visit was said to be due to early Bundestag elections due in February.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has unanimously nominated Scholz as a candidate for chancellor, although he does not have much support: according to the ZDF Politbarometer in November, support for the chancellor was only 35 percent, behind Friedrich Merz of the Christian Social Democratic Union (CDU) and the minister of Defense of the SPD, Boris Pistorius, who had not yet withdrawn his candidacy.

In a speech on security policy on Wednesday, the CDU's Merz announced that he too would make a trip to Ukraine by the end of the year. He requested the creation of a "Contact Group", which would include Germany, France, Poland and the United Kingdom, to develop a common European strategy for supporting Ukraine.

Ukraine must be supported by all means, said Merz, to win the war, he writes euronews.

The ultimatum of 24 hours

The future and limitations of military aid and support to Ukraine is a defining issue for all the parties running.

A few weeks ago, Merz suggested in an interview with Der Spiegel that the restrictions placed on the weapons Ukraine has received should be lifted if Russia does not stop bombing civilians and civilian infrastructure within 24 hours. If that wasn't enough, he said, Taurus missiles could be sent a week later.

Scholz, on the contrary, has so far emphasized "care". He recently suggested in a post on X that Merz is risking a nuclear war with the ultimatums to Russia.

"All I can say is: when it comes to matters of war and peace, you don't need an unpredictable opposition leader, you need a cool head," he wrote.

Merz accused Scholz of fomenting war fears - but later denied the statement himself, saying he had not given Putin an ultimatum.

However, according to Ukrainian journalist Denis Trubetskoy, Merz's statement was completely legitimate.

"In principle, he said that Russia should stop attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, otherwise Germany would supply Taurus long-range weapons," he explained in an interview with Euronews in a cafe in Kiev.

"To be honest, this is not a radical position, as Ukraine is already authorized to use Storm Shadow and ATACMS on Russian territory," he added.

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Trubetskoy was unable to make the interview at home as intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have left Ukrainian households without electricity for hours.

Trubetskoy was hesitant to criticize Scholz's reaction to Merz's statement, but neither praised his ultimatums, describing it as "populism." He sees the changing public mood as a far greater risk.

"We have to assume that this war, or at least the active war phase, could last for years," he explained, adding that "after all, much will depend on the mood and climate in Germany."

The journalist believes that the importance of Germany for Ukraine should not be underestimated. If financial aid from the US is reduced or even cancelled, the burden of financial support will fall on the shoulders of the EU and Germany.

The country's aid agency, USAID, has provided significant funding to Ukraine this year, including $1.75 billion for agricultural sustainability and $32 million for anti-corruption and other humanitarian and budget support.

USAID's total assistance since the outbreak of the full occupation includes over $3 billion for humanitarian assistance and long-term development and governance projects.

According to a German government report, Germany has pledged around 1.2 billion euros in humanitarian and economic support to Ukraine in 2024. This fund will be directed to various areas, including energy supply, infrastructure, health and support to the government in stabilizing its economy.

Despite the critical importance of this aid, he believes that the federal election in Germany is not as worrying for Ukrainians as the recent US presidential election was.

"The US election became a topic of conversation in the kitchen here, which was often viewed in a fatalistic way," he said, noting that while Ukrainians knew they would have to live with the election result and that life they could be directly affected by it, "the fact that the 'traffic light' coalition broke up on the very day that Trump won, of course, was a worrying factor".

"However, I must say that the date set for early elections was found relatively quickly and now it is not so far in the future. If we see the possible result of the elections, Ukrainians can relax a lot", he declared.

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According to him, a coalition between the CDU and the Greens or a grand coalition would be results that Ukraine could be satisfied with "basically, this means that support for Ukraine will continue at least after February 23".

Until that point is reached, Germany will enter an election campaign period during the Christmas season. In the end, Trubetskoy doubts whether a potential chancellor Merz would follow a very different course than Scholzi.

Campaign at the cost of Ukraine?

"Of course, this is also a potential problem for the mood in Germany in the long term," Trubetskoy explained, alluding to the Taurus missile debate that often erupts.

"A review is needed as soon as possible regarding support in general for Ukraine. Simply, without citing specific data, Ukraine would now need 300 Marder, 500 Leos, increased ammunition production, and so on. Of course, it's much easier to discuss a single weapon system than to address all of these issues, which are really hard to do, and where you can start a debate among the population that could result in more complicated," he asserted.

A recent poll by Germany's Korber Foundation showed that while 57 percent of Germans support military aid to Ukraine, 40 percent are opposed. Opposition is strongest among supporters of the left-wing Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (91 percent) and the AfD (78 percent). However, 35 percent of CDU supporters are also against military aid to Ukraine.

Scholz continues to emphasize that Germany will stand by Ukraine "as long as necessary" and introduces himself as the "chancellor of peace". What Trubetskoy criticizes are the peace proposals, which he sees as completely unrealized.

"No nation wants peace more than the Ukrainians. But there is someone in the Kremlin who has other ideas. And this man also sees himself now on the winning side," he said.

He agrees with many outside experts who argue that Putin does not want negotiations at all and wants to continue the war.

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In a post on X, Claudia Major, director of the security and defense policy research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, stated that “peace is the goal. Russia can achieve peace simply by stopping attacks on Ukraine. But, she has chosen to continue to destroy the country and exterminate the population".

call

A few weeks ago, Scholz announced that he had become the first head of a major Western government to call the Russian president since the full invasion began. News of the phone call angered several NATO countries and Ukraine.

Scholz told Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine. But Putin did not respond to this request – and a few days after the call, Russia first attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with an intermediate-range ballistic missile system known as the Oreshnik.

"I think there was a lot of ambiguity regarding the phone call. This misunderstanding was well-founded, simply because people could not understand what an outgoing chancellor could offer to Vladimir Putin, who clearly sees himself on the winning side of this long war," said Trubetskoy, adding that thinks that the phone call was part of the SPD's election campaign.

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Being the potential target of an election campaign strategy is a feeling that Trubetskoy describes as "extremely uncomfortable".

"This has also been true in the US election campaign. Of course, you feel a little taken advantage of. This is clear. But we have to accept this situation. We are dependent on Western aid, and without the help of the US, Germany and other countries, this country may no longer exist, at least in its current form. This is where the cynical and pragmatic thinking 'close your eyes and get on with life!'"

After more than 1000 days of all-out war, Trubetskoy has the feeling that many people outside still don't understand that Putin doesn't just aim to occupy Ukrainian regions, but to destroy the state. Even before the full invasion, Putin denied the country's existence in speeches and writings.

For Trubetskoy, Russia's war of aggression is a war of the past against the future.

"It is always clear that the future wins in these wars. "Unfortunately, it is not at all certain whether we will survive this war here in Ukraine," he said. /Telegraph/