We seem to be entering the crazy ages that people impose. Because of my experience in archaeology, I am inclined to say that the human perception of history is limited to what parents and grandparents tell them. If you go further, you should read the historical propaganda, writes Tobias Stone for the Huffington Post. Telegrafi brings his writing below.
When we see the whole picture, people know how to enter stages of mass destruction. Wars are the norm for humans. I am interested in the "Black Death" that devastated Europe. The Battle of Somme, Hiroshima or the Holocaust cannot be compared to it. It is normal for us to have survived, but for people living at that time it was unimaginable to recover.
For people who survived the "Black Death", world wars, the Soviet famine, the Holocaust, etc. it was unbelievable that humanity would ever recover. At that time things quickly got out of control and mass destruction was experienced. For later historians everything made sense, so they told how things unfolded. But before the First World War, surely no one thought that the killing of one member of the European nobility would lead to the death of 17 million people.
This is a cycle, but people have a narrow perspective that does not see that everything is repeating itself. People who warned before the First World War that the agreements of that time would lead to a major war were declared hysterical and crazy, like those who worry about Putin, Brexit and Trump today. So, after the "war to end all wars", another one began. Historians still knew why. The people felt that they had no control over the state, so they started the hunt for a scapegoat. And, the charismatic leader charmed the masses and divided the sacrifice. Then the anger and hatred grew. The masses moved as one, and the whole became unstoppable.
This was Hitler, but also Mussolini, Stalin, Putin, Mugabe and many others. It seems unimaginable that we can create a situation where tens of millions of people die, and we do this again, again, again... The cycle is repeating itself, but most do not understand it, because: they only see the present; they see the immediate circle and not the global connections; they do not read, do not think and do not listen to opposing views in the world!
Trump is doing this in America. He is a charismatic narcissist who, with the help of the audience, is strengthening himself and creating a cult of personality. If we look at the whole picture, Russia is a dictatorship also led by a charismatic leader who has already created his own cult of personality. Here is also Turkey. Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are heading in this direction, while the rest of Europe is waiting for little Trumps and Putins.
We have to ask ourselves what is the trigger that will start the avalanche? We are observing Putin, Trump and Brexit in isolation. But everything is connected, so we cannot see them separately, Telegrafi reports. Brexit may encourage other groups to launch a similar movement, convinced that they will win. This can set off a chain reaction. For example, it may happen that: the Italians or the French to hold a similar referendum. Thus, Europe is now home to a broken EU.
The EU, for all its faults, nevertheless stopped Putin's military ambitions. Sanctions have hit the Russian economy to slow down attacks on Ukraine. But now that Trump won in the United States and becomes isolationist, it weakens NATO. Putin needs an external goal around which to rally the people. He can finance the uprising of the Russians in Latvia and Lithuania and send there "peacekeepers", as he did in Ukraine. Then, it adds eastern Latvia to Russia. This calls for sanctions or a military response. NATO is slow, Europe indifferent. Without any resistance, Russians from Latvia go to Estonia and eastern Lithuania. The Baltic states declare war on Russia. Half of Europe is with them, the rest with the Russians. How will Turkey react? How will ISIS respond to the war in Europe? Who will be the first to use the nuclear weapon?
This is just one of the scenarios, and their number is endless, due to the complexity of the situation. All historical records indicate that one of these scenarios is inevitable. We will not foresee it nor will we be able to stop it. Future historians will wonder how we were so naive. It is easy for experts to be called pessimistic and ignored. But, this is like ignoring a doctor who tells you to stop smoking, and then realizing that you have cancer!
I feel that everything is inevitable. I don't know exactly what will happen, but we are entering a bad phase. It will be unpleasant for those who will experience it, and perhaps it will be unimaginable. But people will get through this too, and maybe they will be even stronger because of it. But for those on the wrong side, this will be their Battle of the Somme.
Well, what can we do?
Not many. Liberal intellectuals are still a minority. People who think that life is best in open societies, without wars, without racism, and without treating other people badly, usually lose these wars. They don't fight dirty. They are less violent and end up in camps, prisons, and graves. We need to be careful not to divide and counter populist messages with our own messages. We need to understand and use social media. We need to find ways to connect closed groups with other closed groups.
Or, maybe I'm writing so that history remembers me as someone who predicted things? /Telegraph/
