Good news from Kiev: With or without a ceasefire, Ukraine is confident

Source: The Guardian
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Last week, my train arrived in Kiev as Russian ballistic missiles and drones pounded the city, killing a mother and her son. A little over a year ago, I was last in Ukraine. Back then, in April 2024, the atmosphere was grim. People were frustrated by delays in Western military aid and had a clear fear of Russia’s territorial advances – and even the possibility of a collapse of Ukraine’s front line. Today, the international context is even more tense. The Biden administration was very slow and timid, but few doubted that the US did not want to stop Russia from winning. The same cannot be said for Donald Trump, whose ideological closeness to Vladimir Putin has destabilized Europe, starting with Ukraine.

But despite the betrayals of the Trump administration, I found a more confident atmosphere in Kiev than a year ago. After more than three years of war, Ukrainians are tired but not exhausted. The soldiers, civil society representatives, parliamentarians, and government officials I met seemed increasingly determined to resist and defend their country.

This confidence stems from the country's growing self-sufficiency. The Ukrainian drone industry is impressive in terms of technological advantage, adaptability, mass production, and speed. In the production of drones and artillery, Ukraine is getting stronger day by day. It has no reason to envy many of its European neighbors and has much to learn from them.

And while the lack of personnel is a problem, the Ukrainian army – especially the professional units – (unfortunately) understands war better than other forces anywhere in Europe. Of course, realism prevails in Kiev: no one thinks that this understanding is enough to regain lost territory. But while peace through military victory over Russia is no longer expected, neither is the fear of defeat as it once was. Ukraine is quietly calculating, seeking a lasting ceasefire through deterrence.

This is not to say that Ukrainians think they can – or want to – act alone. The sense of disappointment with the US is clear. But, in Kiev, there is a clear awareness that Ukraine still needs Washington, especially for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and air defense.

It is true that the open closeness between the White House and the Kremlin is worrying. But Ukrainians also believe that Putin will continue to overreach with his demands. That is why Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged him this week, proposing a face-to-face meeting in Istanbul.

Putin, in a bad position, could pull another diplomatic rabbit out of the hat to buy time, delay new sanctions, and further divide the West. But it is becoming increasingly clear, even to the Putin-friendly White House, that Russia now does not want to end the war. This, along with the minerals deal that Ukraine signed with the Trump administration, may have influenced a cautious repositioning by Washington.

The war in Ukraine could never be ended in 24 hours, as Trump boasted, because it was never a war between the West and Russia, as Russian propaganda claimed and as Trump seemed to believe. The war is not ending because the only man who can stop it—Putin—continues to think he can win. This truth may not move Trump to change course toward full support for Ukraine. But it may move Washington from an actively hostile stance toward Kiev to one of inaction. In this scenario, the United States would gradually withdraw from the war, while continuing to offer or allow the sale of military capabilities to Ukraine. And while this is not ideal, Kiev can tolerate a US that withdraws amicably much more easily than a US that openly obstructs it.

The other side of the coin is that Ukraine is increasingly integrated into the new European security architecture that is now taking shape. On Europe Day, May 9, EU foreign ministers gathered in Lviv. A few hours later, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom arrived in Kiev – their first joint visit. This was not just symbolic: these states, together with the Nordic and Baltic countries, constitute not only the core of the “coalition of the willing” supporting Ukraine, but also the new European security architecture that is emerging from the Russian threat and disillusionment with the United States.

Their support for Ukraine, both diplomatic and military, is essential to show the world – and especially Washington – that it is Putin and Putin alone who wants the war to continue.

Whatever happens this week, it is essential that European leaders do not limit themselves to discussions of a “security force” after a deal for a territorially divided Ukraine. This idea has been important to maintain Ukrainian morale when Trump seemed to have fully embraced Putin. And European governments must be ready to reinforce Ukraine’s deterrent capabilities in the air, sea and land, whenever the war begins to flare up.

But the immediate priority is different. A lasting ceasefire, unfortunately, does not seem imminent. Russia may accept a short-term pause, but it is unlikely to permanently stop the fighting in the coming months.

Therefore, Ukraine’s allies must be ready to support it in an ongoing war. This means increasing European military support. It also means cooperating to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry, through joint projects with European companies. Equally important is Ukraine’s broader integration into European security and defense plans and actions. Ukraine’s battlefield experience, born of the tragedy of war, is invaluable as Europe strives to strengthen collective defense.

Europe's security passes through Kiev. Understanding this means that the leaders of the "coalition of the willing" will continue to support Ukraine. They know that Russia poses the greatest threat to Europe.

But this is not a one-way street: as Europeans strengthen their defenses against Russia, they will only benefit from Ukraine’s involvement in this effort. Ukraine’s resilience comes from increased self-confidence. As major European powers continue to stand by Kiev, they too should be more confident that Ukraine’s integration into their shared institutions, industries, and societies will strengthen Europe as a whole. /Telegraph/