The EU faces Trump tariffs

A day after US President Donald Trump announced his intention to impose a 25 percent tariff on steel and aluminum imports, the European Union's chief executive hit back.

"The EU will protect its economic interests. We will protect our workers, businesses and consumers," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.

"Unjustified tariffs against the EU will not go unanswered, they will prompt strong and proportionate countermeasures."

Transatlantic relations are entering new territory as the Trump administration embraces a foreign policy aimed at protecting American jobs and industry, and as it attempts to rewrite the rules of international trade.

For enemies like Iran or China, the situation is not much different from previous administrations. However, for allies and partners like the European Union, the situation is unclear and worrying.

"Things seem less predictable than in the first administration, or compared to most previous administrations," said Chase Foster, a professor of politics at King's College London who has studied regulations between the US and the EU.

"The signals coming from the United States are not putting conventional European leaders at ease," said Dalibor Rohaq, a senior fellow at the Enterprise Institute in Washington, in several responses to Radio Free Europe.

"To be honest, every policy is transactional, but Donald Trump's views on America's national interests seem very narrow and personal."

"The coming years could be very dangerous for the stability and security of Europe and will strain the transatlantic relationship that has benefited American and European interests for at least 80 years," said Ian Bond, deputy director at the London-based Center for European Reform.

Turbulence on arrival

The tariffs, announced just two weeks after the Trump administration took office - on steel and aluminum imports from trading partners Canada and Mexico - were expected by many.

Canada and Mexico are major producers of aluminum and steel products and export large quantities of goods to the United States. Trump officials have signaled that other tariffs are on the way — particularly on cars and trucks — that could have a direct impact on the European bloc.

Trump has long argued that American industry is being harmed by cheap imports. Tariffs are a measure through which an administration attempts to negotiate what it believes is a better deal for American workers, to protect jobs, and in the meantime to raise tax revenue, writes Radio Free Europe.

"I expect some kind of trade war," Foster said.

"I won't say the situation will escalate completely, but if 10-20 percent tariffs are imposed on European goods, I expect the EU to respond in kind."

The Trump administration has an advantage over Brussels due to its strong economy, although the situation could worsen if the EU deems American trade policies to be contemptuous.

If something like this happens, Foster believes that European industries and their political supporters could advance "economic patriotism."

"Look at what happened in Canada," he said.

"An aggressive approach by a state that feels economically attacked by a more powerful state."

"Economic patriotism is an emotion that transcends parties," Foster said, adding that it may therefore be possible that "the people of Europe can put aside their differences and unite and defend their interests against the United States, or any state that might bully them."

Technology sector

The EU has taken a more aggressive approach to regulating tech companies like Google and Apple. Last year, it strengthened the Digital Markets Act, declaring six tech giants as monopolies and requiring them to comply with strict regulations. Five of the six are American and one is Chinese — TikTok’s parent company.

Meanwhile, CEOs of major American companies – including Elon Musk as head of Tesla and X – have strongly supported Trump’s return to the White House. These companies have generally sidestepped EU regulations.

At an AI summit held this week in Paris, attended by senior American and European officials, as well as heads of major technology companies, US Vice President JD Vance criticized the EU and its efforts to regulate the technology sector.

"We believe that over-regulation of the AI ​​sector could destroy a transformative industry," Vance said.

"We will make every effort to encourage pragmatic growth and policies for Artificial Intelligence."

"I think for many Europeans technology is seen as an existential threat, both to companies and to their economies, to Europe's ability to compete with its own technology, but also as a threat to European democracy," Foster said.

"It's not just about the disinformation that we know exists online, but also about the fact that these companies are outside of European territory," he said.

"So I don't know if the demands being pushed forward by the Trump administration will be satisfactory to European leaders."

Scope of influence

There is also a question mark over whether Trump's conservative policies will strengthen relations with leaders like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban or Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who are known for their populist messages, conveyed through conservative politics, with a single goal: winning elections.

"What we notice in Orbán and Fico is that their agendas are quite anti-American and through them they attempt to strengthen the position of US enemies in the region, such as Russia or China," Rohaq said.

"However, they seem to share this warmth for the current administration, which is pushing forward the 'America First' agenda."

Orbán, who is in trouble with the EU because of his beliefs, has consolidated power with the concept of "illiberal democracy", undermining the independence of the media and the courts, and making his Fidesz party dominant in the state.

His enthusiasm for Trump and conservative activists in the United States is no secret. On election day in the US, when Trump defeated his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, the Hungarian leader said 'We won', in a post on his Facebook page.

"Orbán feels vindicated and is only strengthening his 'eurosceptic' position and his illiberal approach," said Zsuzsanna Vegh, of the Berlin-based Marshall Fund of the United States.

She has said in several responses to Radio Free Europe that Orbán now feels he has more authority to suppress opposition groups and government critics.

"The government narrative is the attack on independent media and non-governmental organizations in Hungary. This signal is expected to be followed by other like-minded officials within the EU, and Robert Fico has already embarked on the same path," she said.

“Fico is a different figure than Orban,” said Grigorij Meseznikov, a Slovak political analyst in Bratislava. According to him, Fico cannot be easily categorized as a right-wing politician.

"It's true that he's pushing ideas very similar to the far-right, but he's not the kind of far-right politician. He's still pushing the pro-Russian narrative. He's pro-Russian and he's against America, which is quite paradoxical," Meseznikov said.

"In general, he has a positive approach towards Trump. I think he welcomed his victory in the presidential election, despite his anti-American beliefs," he said.

Last week, Fico published an open letter to Elon Musk, who has been trying to shut down the US Agency for International Development (USAID), to share with him information about "non-governmental organizations, media outlets, and individual journalists" who have received money from USAID.

Meseznikov called the letter a "joke," since, according to him, USAID has had a minimal presence in Slovakia for several years.

"I expect the Trump White House to do its best to boost right-wing populists in Europe, not just those in power, like Orban and Fico, but others as well," Bond said, citing the German party, Alternative for Germany, or France's National March as examples.