Electoral elections as geopolitics

Electoral processes have begun to evolve from internal social-political and economic issues to a major force in the formation of politics and geopolitics. The elections in the USA, from 2016 until today, then in Germany, Italy and other European countries show that the ideological changes of the parties are not only appearing as internal changes in economic and social development, but also in the external geopolitical one. But these changes are hitting third countries the most. Autocratic regimes such as Russia and Serbia have recognized the potential of electoral processes through hybrid warfare as a weapon to exert influence on fragile democracies, including North Macedonia and Montenegro. This manipulation of democratic processes is a manifestation of hybrid warfare, where political, economic and informational strategies are used to achieve strategic objectives.

Recently, we have also witnessed the statement of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the elections in North Macedonia, clearly requesting that the SDSM be voted for. This statement of Mr. Scholzit is not just a personal preference of his, but a calculated move within a comprehensive strategy to protect the main interests of NATO and the EU in the strategic region of the Western Balkans.

Any change in North Macedonia's political landscape that does not align with Western interests could potentially create a dangerous anti-Western and pro-Western axis, including Serbia, Republika Srpska, Montenegro and North Macedonia. This development could have far-reaching implications for the stability and security of the entire region, and thus, for the interests of the West.

In this context, electoral processes have become a critical component of geopolitical influence, forming alliances and influencing international relations. As such, understanding the dynamics of electoral politics in third countries is essential to delve into the complexities of the contemporary global order. So, we are in the "electoral elections as geopolitics" trend.

For example, in the USA, the electoral challenge between the contenders Joe Biden and Donald Trump is not just a political duel within their borders, but is also a spectacle that can deeply affect global geopolitical structures.

In this context, it is carefully observed how the change of government in the USA can potentially affect the geopolitical orientation and relations with international actors.

During this election season, it is hard not to notice the influence of outside interests on the campaign and the outcome of US elections. In a changed and important geopolitical environment, international actors use their diplomatic, economic and propaganda tools to influence the course of events in the most powerful country in the world.

In this way, the electoral decision will not only be a manifestation of the political preferences of the American population, but also an expression of the determination of the responsibilities and challenges that belong to a newly elected leader in the context of a changing world.

In the context of the geopolitical challenges of the Western Balkans, the actions of Russia and Serbia through the use of hybrid war strategies in North Macedonia represent a clear attempt to influence the outcome of the elections and to manipulate the political structures in favor of their interests. In this scenario, the goal is to create an unstable political situation, which will result in an insecure government that will keep North Macedonia in a state similar to that of Montenegro.

In detail, this strategy aims to ensure a victory for right-wing nationalist parties such as VMRO-DPMNE, linking them with a left-wing movement such as Levica, to create a governing coalition that also includes some Albanian coalition on behalf of multi-ethnicity and pro-Western kinship guarantee. However, under the conditions of such governance, state and institutional stability cannot be guaranteed.

In this situation, the Western powers will be forced to accept such a governance structure in the name of stability, as they have done before in the case of Montenegro. Stability can be restored in the challenge, but not from the Albanian factor, as it is important to determine that the risk of worsening ethnic tensions in North Macedonia has no source in the Albanian factor. Instead, ethnic tensions mainly stem from internal Macedonian factors.

Albanians, whether politically or ethnically, have demonstrated a stable state consciousness towards North Macedonia, maintaining a pro-Western orientation and expressing their will to be part of the state and political structures of the country. This permanent position of theirs has constituted a stabilizing element in the political landscape of North Macedonia, regardless of the changes in the ideological and strategic characters of the political parties from the Macedonian side.

Therefore, in order to understand and address the ethnic tensions in North Macedonia, we must return to the challenges and dynamics within the Macedonian community, examining them in the context of the country's history and domestic politics, and identifying their main sources to find sustainable and long-term solutions for the stability and continued development of North Macedonia.

In order for North Macedonia to maintain its integrity, and to avoid widespread Russian-Serbian influence, one of the main challenges it must take seriously is economic and social development. In order to achieve this objective, it is important that the political, intellectual and civic classes of North Macedonia play the role of true patriots, trying to protect its independence and advancing on the path of sustainable development.

This process requires the political and social actors of the country to work in harmony to avoid the involvement of foreign policies that could lead to state capture, thus creating a favorable climate for sustainable development and the progress of the country. Otherwise, political disputes and tensions may cause social revolt and destabilization, endangering the existence of North Macedonia as a state entity in the current political structure.

In this context, it is important that North Macedonia seriously evaluates the internal and external challenges, taking as an example how they are faced and handled by Montenegro. The strong connection with NATO and the integration efforts in the European Union are also essential to guarantee the security and development of the country in a changed geopolitical context. Therefore, it is important that North Macedonia continues to understand and take appropriate steps to maintain its integrity and fulfill its strategic objectives on the international stage.

These conclusions came from the paper with the title: "Hybrid war and the importance of elections in the geopolitics of North Macedonia: Targeting the West or returning to the sphere of Russia and Serbia" published by the Institute Octopus. This paper examines the issue of how North Macedonia, at its head, had an entity with strong pro-Russian and pro-Serbian segments, to then change to another pro-Western entity after many challenges and which is now in danger of making a comeback back like before 2016 or worse.

During the paper, we examined the threats of serbization in North Macedonia, Russian influence and commitments to change the approach towards the West and the hybrid war which, in addition to damaging North Macedonia, was strong enough to be involved in the US elections. .

(The author is a researcher at the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies – Octopus. Full title of the article: Electoral elections as geopolitics: North Macedonia towards the West or Russia and Germany's reaction)