The Polish Presidency of the EU, for a Europe in action

Ardit Gjinali

The end of 2024, a dramatic election year in various countries of the political map of the world, an election year that included anxieties, uncertainty, ambiguity and more than dilemmas, not only on the respective election results, but also on the governing political stability in the national scene of to many political actors, such European and beyond the continent in the geographical context, depending on the political implications in the intercontinental context. Conclusions often carry the dramatic context that the term itself conveys, but "the end of a mandate" does not always convey drama - the Presidency of the European Union is an example that "the conclusion" is the right relay of a beginning with a philosophy of continuity in the common vision of a Europe better, more politically present and more effectively decision-making.

The end of 2024 also marks the end of the Hungarian Presidency, a member country of the Visegrad alliance, in the period June-December 2024, and marks the beginning of the Polish Presidency, another member country of the Visegrad alliance, in the first six-month period of next year, namely January-June 2025. We can mention that Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland are the four countries that make up the Visegrad alliance - the four member countries of the European Union, after the great enlargement of 2004.

Poland will hold the Presidency of the European Union for the second time in the period January-June 2025, after the first time, namely in 2011. The country has experienced a strong political clash through a visible extreme polarization and in the final election result that marked the change of government, where the country is governed by a reformist coalition government under Donald Tusk, leader of the Civic Platform, the man who will lead the Presidency of the European Union due to the quality as Prime Minister of Poland, after the elections of 2023 – the same, Donald Tusk, former Prime Minister of Poland in the period 2007-2014, former President of the European Council in the period 2014-2019 and former President of the European People's Parties in the period 2019 -2022, too. The Polish Presidency of the European Union will build its institutional action based on three main priorities namely: energy, defense and security.

Tusk has clearly emphasized through a powerful political voice, such not from the issuing sounds, but from the individual political stature and the country he represents on a Polish Presidency of effective action, such beyond the Polish mandate, but the Polish mandate to serve as the beginning of a new mindset for Europe, where according to Tusk, "Europe cannot remain in a survival position, but in a completely politically and actively active position", and following and repeating more than one times that "We will make Europe think Polish in many ways".

Security will be the main priority in all dimensions, including the internal dimension, namely in the political map of the Union such as competition, food quality, essential medicines and a realistic study for a new energy price, for businesses and citizens and guaranteeing security of energy supply and diversification, as well. On the other hand, the external dimension that goes beyond the Union's political borders includes, respectively, the protection of Europe's borders, cyber security, the fight against disinformation through foreign interference and the growth of the Union's defense industry as a whole, where the defense budget during the year 2023 was about 279 billion euros, but the implementation of the vision on common European air defense will call for an increased multidimensional commitment, where the ambassador of Poland accredited in Tirana, Agnieszka Bartol, will to emphasize: "The mentality has been fundamentally changed. Now we are talking about new funding for defense, which was taboo a few years ago."

This new financing for defense would enable a new direction of the Union in similar financing trends with the other two world actors, namely the US and China. Following the same spirit, Tusk would declare: "Whether it is about energy, climate, food, increasing Europe's defense capabilities or transatlantic cooperation, the policy towards the war between Russia and Ukraine, everywhere we will have to overcome traditional divisions and to remember that the security of the whole continent depends on us".

The political relationship with Germany and France remain of essential importance for a successful Presidency, where the principle of "political balance" remains the essence of encouraging the Union's political proactivity during the Presidency. Beyond an unfavorable political time, namely with the fall of Chancellor Scholz's government in Germany after the negative vote of confidence in the Bundestag and early elections, which will be held in February 2025, or even the political instability in France with the continued inability of governments to continue due to the lack of numbers in the French Parliament, Prime Minister Tusk's experience will be essential in driving forward the Polish agenda in coordination with the axis of the EU, France-Germany, as a pan-European interest depending on the dynamics of national politics, in France, Germany or Poland, too.

Tusk's visits in February 2024, respectively to Berlin and Paris, remain an example of a new era of cooperation, which will positively affect the overall fulfillment of the agenda of the Polish Presidency of the European Union. The visit to Germany was made due to the strong political rhetoric accusing him from the Polish conservative opposition, namely from the "Law and Justice" Party. On the other hand, the visit of French President Macron to Warsaw in December 2024, where during the meeting with Prime Minister Tusk, the joint commitment to the protection of peace and the strengthening of instruments that would guarantee the further consolidation of European security was confirmed, where Poland can is considered as a positive example within this vision. The statements of the two leaders, Tusk and Macron, were as follows, where respectively Macron would emphasize: "We have a common vision, that the only possible peace is a lasting peace, which means a peace negotiated by Ukrainians who it will allow them to have long-term security solutions”. On the other hand, Tusk emphasized: "After the discussions, we notice the need for an absolute unity in Europe, to act in favor of peace in Ukraine. Poland hosts the logistics center, unique in its genre, which serves to transfer aid to Ukraine. We are the ones who bear the burden of the security of the EU's eastern border".

Beyond the discussions and joint commitments for peace, security and increased European proactivity, a polarizing challenge within the European Union during these six months of the Polish Presidency will be the implementation of the trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries, signed between the president of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen, and the leaders of the Mercosur countries, namely Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, an agreement that is expected to pass in a short way implementation, where the main challenge remains approval in the European Parliament and overcoming the skepticism of the two most strongly opposed countries within the European Union, namely France and Poland. This agreement and Prime Minister Tusk's attitude towards it remains difficult due to the implications that the "Yes" to the agreement would convey in the Polish domestic political scene, especially with the presidential elections of May 2025 or with public support in the ranks of farmers to the policies of the government as a whole in the following period, where strong political polarization may bring side effects on broad decision-making in coherence with the political position of the EU towards other global actors.

The Polish presidency of the European Union conveys positive expectations about the encouragement of the enlargement process towards political actors, countries in the Balkan region in the status of a candidate country or Ukraine or Moldova. During an informal meeting in Krakow with the presidents of some of the EU member states, namely Italy, Bulgaria, Germany, Croatia, Greece, Estonia, Slovenia, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia, President Duda would emphasize the following: "We want to first for Ukraine, but also Moldova and the countries of the Western Balkans to be admitted to the European Union. We all hope that Georgia will be admitted after the next election. There should also be a more active role from the United States in relations with the European Union".

The current Polish president has expressed in an earlier period, before the presidential elections held in the USA, on November 5, 2024, on the necessity of holding two summits, namely EU-USA and EU-Ukraine, during the six-month period of the Polish Presidency of the European Union. President Duda emphasized: "We must organize two European summits in Poland to highlight the most important elements of Europe's development for the future." He continued: "The meeting between the EU and Ukraine should be dedicated to the reconstruction of the country attacked by Russia."

President Duda's statement is an expression of a vision for encouraging and strengthening the transatlantic alliance, the Polish president is a vocal political ally of the US president-elect, Trump, and considered one of the possible mediators in any potentially complex situation the negotiation between the European Union and the USA during the next four years, if President Duda will be confirmed in a new mandate in the Presidential elections of May 2025 that will be held in Poland. Beyond the extreme polarization in the national political life, the country experiences an important political consensus in relation to important world events, where the condemning attitude towards Russia due to the attack on Ukraine stands out or in the further encouragement of the expansion of the European Union, namely in the Balkan countries or for Ukraine and Moldova, too.

Common positions in the function of a consolidated European alliance will encourage joint institutional commitment for a successful EU Presidency, depending on the deep political differences between President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk, where a successful Presidency would increase the reputation of Poland in the international arena. But the presidential elections in Poland, set to be held in 2025, where the main candidates will be the current president Duda and the mayor of Warsaw, representative of Prime Minister Tusk's party, Rafa Trzaskowski, are expected to transform the Presidency of the European Union into a topic of a campaign that is expected to convey a repeated polarization, depending on the different nature of the Presidential elections from the same Parliamentary ones.

Tusk's long-term vision and expertise in the institutions of the European Union combined with President Duda's proactivity and his special relationship with the US President-elect, Trump, would lead to a very successful Polish Presidency and a reference model. for each presidency in the next 6 months, but the dilemma remains in the degree of overcoming divisions at the national level, which the two Polish leaders will show in the function of a successful presidency, overlooked the success or failures in segments of the Presidency in function of political rivalry at the national level.

Beyond presenting the positive or inhibiting aspects chronologically listed above, the political and national cohesion of Poland against the Russian aggression in Ukraine will influence the encouragement of a strong political action by the Polish Presidency to transform the European Union into a vocal and active on the world political stage, where political action would be the healthy foundation for the Europe of the next decade, a global actor that must define world developments in coherence with the USA in the light of a possible world polarization due to the groupings of other alternative world actors.

The Polish national interest will overcome national policy differences and each of the Polish political actors will influence a successful EU Presidency at a time of world political challenges, where a successful Presidency would strengthen Poland's political reputation in the international arena. and would transform the Polish Presidency into the guiding model at the end of the 20th anniversary of the EU's major enlargement, where Poland is the successful example of enlargement, in the context historical, economic and in political positioning in support of the Western and transatlantic alliance, as well.