The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is very good news for the long-suffering people of Syria, says Adrian Shtuni, a Washington-based foreign policy and security expert and fellow at the International Center for Counter-Terrorism. Terrorism in The Hague.
However, he adds that this moment is also a slightly delicate aspect of the security risk because "we are in a phase of transition from a government, which has been bloodthirsty in the arrival of groups, which are unknown in terms of governance and which have a problematic (past) background in terms of security".
"There are some groups that still have names that are known as terrorist groups", he says, in an interview for Radio Free Europe.
The Assad regime in Syria fell on December 8, when the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) organization, declared a terrorist organization by the US and its allies, took power.
Shtuni, who is the author of the publication "Foreign Fighters and Domestic Jihadists from the Western Balkans: Trends and Implications" of the Center for War Against Terrorism at West Point, adds that there are several dozen Albanians who are active in the recent battles in Syria - "fighters who are integrated within the component called the Alban Congregation".
TLet's talk a little about the recent situation in Syria, the new battles there and the whole situation that seems to have changed in these last days, radically.
Saturday: Yes, what has happened is that Bashar al Assad's regime has fallen, which is very good news for the people of Syria. It is a people that has suffered for a very long time under a bloody dictatorship of the Assad family, so somewhere fifty something, between (his) father and Assad, and has experienced some fourteen years of civil war, in which over six hundred have been killed. thousand people.
This is good news, that Bashar al Assad has escaped, he has fled and now it is a different situation. It is also good news that what happened and the fall of the regime show that Russia has weakened along with Iran and their influence and the intervention of groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, which were artificially keeping the Assad regime afloat. oppressing the people of Syria.
And, at this moment, in addition to these positive things, there is also the, let's say, slightly delicate aspect of the security risk, because we are in a phase of transition from a government that has been bloodthirsty in the arrival of groups, which are as unknown as belong to the government and have a problematic background in terms of security.
There are some groups, which still have names which are known as terrorist groups. But we will see what this transition will bring, and this is the most important part of the discussion, I think, but we have to do it later, because at this moment it is not known what will happen with this transition.
You mentioned the groups that have become part of the battle for the liberation of Syria. Who exactly are these groups and what happened?
Saturday: There are several components here and the main group is called Hayat Tahrir Al-sham. That is, it is a coalition, which includes several other groups, but the main one is HTS, and the main leader is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who actually has this as his war name, whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.
He is a 42-year-old man, who was born in Saudi Arabia, but is Syrian. And, then, he returned, he was integrated, he went and fought in Iraq with Al-Qaeda and was part of it. He was later arrested in Iraq by American forces and then later integrated into the components of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and was sent to Syria, to start there this - let's say - Islamist confrontation and resistance, which in Syria It was originally known as Jahbat Al-Nusra.
These names are well-known, I'm talking about Al-Qaeda, I'm talking about the Islamic State in Iraq at the beginning, Al-Nusran... They are all organizations known for terrorist activities and this person who is the leader, has actually been the main element, the person main leader of jihadist initiatives in Syria and has since gone through several different transformations.
In 2016, he officially broke away from Al-Qaeda, because he did not want to have this connection with a terrorist organization, and gradually focused more on the revolutionary interests of the liberation of Syria. It was freed to some extent, detached to some extent, from the global jihadist component that the Al-Qaeda organization or the Islamic State organization has.
And, at this moment we are seeing an even greater transformation from Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has begun to no longer mention his Jihihadist name, which I called Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. He is trying to portray himself as a force, as a person who has a transformative force and is focused on governance in Syria - a governance which, it seems through the words he is trying to communicate, will be comprehensive and will not pose a threat to religious or ethnic minorities in Syria.
This is something that would be welcomed if it were real, but it remains to be seen if the words will be followed by the facts.
Before we move to a more local context for the Balkans, you mentioned that this leader has undergone or at least proclaimed transformations in his organization and personality. Yes, how is he seen internationally as a figure? How is he and HTS currently considered in world powers?
Saturday: The organization and he, personally, are listed as terrorist components, so the HTS organization is known as an organization linked to Al-Qaeda...
Can this be changed?
Saturday: Of course it can be changed, it can be changed, but it will depend not on the words spoken, but on the deeds. However, it is not only recognized as a terrorist organization in the United States, but also by European Union countries, England and so on.
And for Jolan there is a price of ten million dollars which has been put by the United States for information that would lead to his capture.
The reaction from the US president, Joe Biden, has been restrained. He welcomed the departure of Assad. I said it once again, he is a bloody dictator, who has killed and cut Syria for decades.
There are seven million Syrians who have been displaced and refugees, who are already trying to return to their homes, and I hope that they will have a future that will be more peaceful and not one of division and killing and the rule of terrorist organizations.
I would not like to see, let's say a Taliban regime coming to Syria. Hopefully it won't be like that!
How many fighters of Albanian or Albanian-speaking nationality are considered to be active or have been active in the recent battles in Syria? And in which organizations?
Saturday: There are several dozen who are active - mainly we are talking about the fighters who are integrated within the component called the Alban Congregation.
It is a group, which by nature is a jihadist Islamist group. It is a well-structured group that operates within the HTS coalition, that is, Jolan's coalition that we mentioned earlier. It is a group with an Albanian or ethnic Albanian command structure and the people who are members of this group come mainly from Kosovo, from North Macedonia, but also from other Albanian territories in the Balkans, and from the diaspora.
That is, the leader of the Albanian group there, the Albanian congregation, is a 48-year-old man from Skopje known by the name Abu Qatade al-Albani. His real name is Abdul Jashari. This is also a person listed as a terrorist and has had high advisory functions with the commander of HTS, Al-Jolan.
This group has been active in Syria since 2012, although not officially with this name as Jamati Alban, but its components, i.e. the people who formed this group, later used this name as Jamati Alban.
What would you say was or is the separation of these persons and organizations that they have decided to belong to, either the Islamic State or in this case HTS? Has there been a division in groups or organizations, has there been a transfer? How has this flowed after 2012?
Saturday: This question is very good, but it takes hours to explain the details, because it is not something that happened overnight and it is not something that is already over.
I mean, let's be clear, when I say a few dozen, I'm only talking about the fighters, but there are also family members, there are women, there are children, there are people who are not old enough to fight who are still there. And, if we are going to talk about all of them, then we go to a number that is much larger than a few dozen.
The Albanian groups were mainly divided into two parts: One was the one under the Islamic State and the other was the one that was part of Al-Nusra... and then later, they are now part of the group called HTS, which is the same group but which has transformed over time. This is because it sought to distance itself from known terrorist organizations and has already transformed or is seeking to transform into a governing organization within Syria that appears to have no official intentions to export jihadism globally.
This is important to understand.
As for the Islamic State, it is a terrorist organization, which has global dimensions and tries to create an Islamic state, which knows no borders and which invites and takes in its bosom all Muslims... And it has been their ambition to created the caliphate, which is another thing.
Currently, those who were affiliated (connected) with the Islamic State, the vast majority of them have either returned or been killed and some are still being held in Kurdish prisons in the northeastern part of Syria.
However, those who are affiliated with HTS, as I mentioned, are several dozen and they were also active in the last offensive that we saw and which culminated in the fall of Bashar al-Assad's system. They were active in the cities of Hama, in Homs, they were in Damascus two days before, taking pictures of themselves there.
And, let's be clear about one thing, there hasn't been much fighting these days.
The soldiers of the Syrian army have laid down their weapons and left, there have been reactions or let's say isolated fighting, but very minimal in some certain areas, but mostly there has been no resistance. They surrendered and the army surrendered and disbanded. So it's just been a march by HTS, towards the capitals of these major cities, which they've already taken over.
What was the importance of the (Albanian group) within HTS? Also, within the Telegram groups, we see another group that calls itself Tactical Albanian, which is considered a more specialized group in certain weapons that is even doing training for other fighters there. Are there also small teams or smaller specialized units of Albanians there that make up any significant units within HTS?
Saturday: Yes, I mentioned the main person, Abdul Jashari, has been quite close to Jolani, the leader of HTS, and has been one of his main advisers.
There is a person with an important military figure within this organization, the word is heard, and he has consistently had the ability to attract people and have sufficient funding to keep the group active.
This is not a little.
And, this group is divided into several subgroups, so the Alban Congregation is divided into several groups which are specialized: one for mine throwing, the other is a group of snipers and then we also have this training group which is called Albanian Tactical. But they are in the suaza of the same big group, which is the Alban Congregation.
Do you think that there may have been recruitments recently from the countries of the Western Balkans, especially through these social networks that you are mentioning, including Telegram?
Saturday: It is very difficult to measure real-time recruitment or their ability to attract individuals as we speak. What I find is that their commitments in terms of media, communication with the general public have been constant.
The quality of their communication has been increasing, which shows that their seriousness in terms of the ambition they have to communicate their activities, but also to attract others, is at a high level.
Mostly those who are active today are people who traveled there sometime between 2011 and 2014 or 2015 mostly, because later it was very difficult to move.
Now that the war is considered over, what is expected to happen to these foreign fighters? Is it likely that some of them may return to their home countries? Do you think they will aim to have positions in the new government in Syria? How do you see the role of these foreign Albanian fighters being transformed in this case?
Saturday: This is a very good question. First, I am not convinced that the civil war is over. I hope it's over, but if we look historically at these kinds of situations where there is a vacuum of government followed by wars and other confrontations, civil wars or other chapters of civil war but in a different way, or even clashes of the subgroups themselves within the group main, that now seems to have taken power.
So there could be internal power struggles and there could be war and other bloodshed going on.
We will have to see what happens, it is too early to draw conclusions.
But it may happen that these types of foreign fighters will be integrated within the structures of the future government.
The person, the main leader, that is Abdul Jashari, was also a person who commanded a military academy of HTS before and so we will see what will happen if they will be further integrated into the government or if they will look at some way to left.
But, I think mainly there will be a tendency to integrate them even more within the HTS structures and the governance within Syria than to expel them, because they are parts that have played a role in the victory of HTS , so they owe them, let's say.
HTS (is indebted) to these people who have risked their lives to bring about this change that has taken place.
What about them (the fighters), do you expect any interest in returning?
Saturday: I am not sure that they would want to return, as these people are focused, have a jihadist background, have risked their lives for their ideological goals, which they have not hidden.
They demand governance that is guided by the religious principles that are articulated in the Koran and want Sharia law to govern everything in the society they live in.
Such a thing I do not believe they can have the ambition to experience in the Balkans, so as long as they are in Syria under the leadership of a new government, which has an Islamist background and has a person who is known as Jolani who had these kinds of ambitions. They, I think, can continue to stay there.
But, this will also depend on the trajectory that Jolani will take and will lead the governance in Syria, because if he wants to be accepted by other countries, by the international community, he needs the transformation he is talking about , turn it into reality and show that there is enough tolerance for all minorities - be it ethnic or religious living in Syria and not to suppress and impose a law on them, which would not work for them, because it does not they are not interested in being guided by sharia law.
It remains to be seen what will happen. /REL/
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