Why is the Champions League playoff draw for Real Madrid more complicated than it seems?

Real Madrid will face Benfica in the Champions League knockout stage, a duel that for the Madrid team could end either as a salvation for the season or as a complete European humiliation.
The 15-time European champions were comfortably placed in third place in the league stage before the eighth round, where a win against Jose Mourinho's side would have been enough to secure direct qualification to the round of 16. Even a draw would have guaranteed Los Blancos a place in the top eight, thanks to their superior goal difference.
However, Alvaro Arbeloa's team were completely dominated at the Estadio da Luz, suffering a disappointing 4–2 defeat, which dropped Real Madrid to ninth place and forced them to start the knockout phase from the play-offs.
The draw proved to be ruthless, as the Madrid team could have faced either Bodo/Glimt or Benfica, but fate reserved the more difficult alternative for them. Benfica comes into this match full of confidence and with a clear knowledge of how to hurt Real Madrid.
Before the match in Lisbon, Real Madrid were seen as the absolute favourites to take the three points, especially considering that Benfica had suffered five defeats in the league stage and had scored only six goals.
Benfica v Real Madrid. Reload it. pic.twitter.com/VO9AOIH6K8
— Sports Illustrated FC (@SI_FootballClub) January 30, 2026
But by the end of the match, the Portuguese had scored four goals, had 22 shots on target with just 33 percent possession and had neutralized the likes of Vinicius Junior, Jude Bellingham and Franco Mastantuono. Although Kylian Mbappe scored twice, it was not enough to avoid defeat.
Real Madrid's possible path to the final
Benfica's move would be just the beginning of an extremely difficult path for Real Madrid.
Possible opponents in the 1/8 finals:
Sporting CP
Manchester City

Without a doubt, Manchester City is the name that Madrid would like to avoid. The two teams have already faced each other in the league stage, where Pep Guardiola's team won 2-1, even before Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi came close. City will also be looking for revenge for last season's elimination.
Possible opponents in the quarterfinals:
Arsenal
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta

At this stage, the difficulties would only increase. Arsenal ended the league stage without defeat, while Bayern Munich has suffered only two defeats in all competitions this season. Against these names, Real Madrid would enter as underdogs, an unusual status for the “kings” of Europe.
Possible opponents in the semi-finals:
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco
Barcelona
Chelsea
Galatasaray
Juventus
Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur

At this stage, the biggest threat comes from reigning European champions PSG and arch-rivals Barcelona, who are still full of confidence after their Spanish Super Cup triumph over Real Madrid. Liverpool and Chelsea also pose serious threats, given Madrid's recent struggles against English clubs.
Only a run of matches similar to their European golden eras would take Real Madrid to the Champions League final in May.Telegrafi






















































