Natural gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply in recent days, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark falling below 28 euros per megawatt hour on Tuesday - a level not seen since April 2024.
The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is the main natural gas trading “hub” in Europe, located in the Netherlands. It is a virtual marketplace where companies buy and sell natural gas, not a physical location.
And this, according to an article by Euronews, reports the Telegraph, comes despite a relatively early and cold start to winter in most of continental Europe.
As stated further, since January, natural gas prices in Europe have fallen more than 45% and over 90% from their record levels during the 2022 energy crisis.
At first glance, this decline seems counterintuitive as temperatures fall and gas storage levels remain relatively low.
As the article points out, as of November 30, European reserves were 75% full, roughly 10% below the five-year average.
In Germany, Europe's largest gas market, storage levels are even weaker, at just 67%, more than 20% below seasonal norms.
American gas reshapes the European market
The main cause behind the price drop lies across the Atlantic, the Euronews article emphasizes, according to the Telegraph.
The United States has increased exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, offsetting reduced Russian supplies and reshaping the global energy balance.
According to Kpler data, US cargoes have accounted for about 56% of Europe's LNG imports this year.
And with Asian demand relatively weak and U.S. export capacity strong, Europe has become the primary destination for U.S. LNG.
This continued flow is putting downward pressure on the TTF, narrowing the spread – or price differential – between European and American natural gas prices.
TTF-Henry Hub gap narrows significantly
Historically, US gas - priced at the "Henry Hub" - has traded at a discount to the European TTF due to abundant domestic production in North America.
However, this difference has narrowed significantly in 2025, falling from around $12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the beginning of the year to just $4.8, the lowest since May 2021.
Currently, TTF gas is trading at just under $10/MMBtu, just double the price of Henry Hub gas, which averaged $5.045 this week.
For context, during the 2022 energy crisis, TTF prices rose to 350 euros/MWh (about $100/MMBtu), while Henry Hub was close to $10, creating a record transatlantic spread of nearly $90/MMBtu.
This narrowing price gap reflects a broader realignment in global energy flows, Euronews estimates.
According to the media outlet in question, American LNG has become "Europe's safety valve," easing fears of shortages and bringing a sense of normalcy back to markets.
The more LNG the US can export, the more it can ease price pressure in Europe.
Long-term forecasts for natural gas
Looking ahead, analysts at Goldman Sachs predict this rebalancing trend will continue throughout the decade.
Samantha Dart expects increased global supply - particularly from the US - to increase European storage levels and gradually reduce TTF and prices, predicting TTF at €29/MWh in 2026 and €20/MWh in 2027.
By 2028–2029, storage glut in Northwest Europe could reduce the TTF to as low as €12/MWh, closing the LNG export arbitrage to the US and forcing cancellations of US cargoes.
This in turn would lower prices in the US, with Henry Hub potentially falling to $2.70/MMBtu.
However, after 2030, Goldman sees the potential for a new LNG glut, led by China's decarbonization policies and increased investment in Asian infrastructure. /Telegraph/
