Who will be the next Pope? The leading candidates in an unpredictable race

Who will be the next Pope? The decision could have a profound impact on the Catholic Church and the world's 1.4 billion baptized Catholics, writes with the BBC.

It also promises to be a highly unpredictable and open-ended process for a multitude of reasons, the Telegraph reports.

The College of Cardinals will meet in conclave in the Sistine Chapel, to debate and then vote on their preferred candidates until a single name prevails.

With 80% of the cardinals appointed by Pope Francis himself, they are not only electing a Pope for the first time, but will offer a broad global perspective.

For the first time in history, less than half of those voting will be Europeans.

And although the college may be dominated by its appointments, they were not exclusively “progressive” or “traditionalist.”

For these reasons, it is harder than ever to predict who will be elected the next Pope.

Could the cardinals elect an African or Asian Pope, or could they favor one of the old hands of the Vatican administration?

Here is a selection of names being mentioned as Francis' possible successor.

Pietro Parolin

Nationality: Italian

Age: 70

Italian Cardinal Parolin was the Vatican's secretary of state under Pope Francis - making him the Pope's top adviser. The secretary of state also heads the Roman Curia, the central administration of the Church.

Having acted effectively as a deputy, he can be considered a leader.

He is seen by some as more likely to prioritize diplomacy and a global perspective over the purity of Catholic dogma. His critics consider this a problem, while supporters see it as a strength.

But he has been critical of the legalisation of same-sex marriage around the world, calling a historic vote in favour in 2015 in the Republic of Ireland "a loss for humanity".

Cardinal Parolin will be well aware of an old Italian saying that highlights the uncertainty of the papal election process: "He who enters a conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal."

Some 213 of the previous 266 popes have been Italian, and although there has not been an Italian pope in 40 years, the pivot of the Church's top echelons away from Italy and Europe could mean there may not be another one for the time being.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Nationality: Filipino

Age: 67

Could the next Pope come from Asia?

Cardinal Tagle has decades of experience – meaning he has been an active leader of the Church among the people as opposed to a diplomat for the Vatican or reclusive expert on Church law.

The church has massive influence in the Philippines, where about 80% of the population is Catholic. The country currently has a record five members of the College of Cardinals – which could create a significant lobbying faction if they all support Cardinal Tagle.

He is considered a moderate within the Catholic definition and has been called the "Asian Francis" because of a commitment to social issues and sympathy for immigrants that he shared with the late Pope.

He has opposed abortion rights, calling them “a form of murder” – a position consistent with the Church’s broader stance that life begins at conception. He has also spoken out against euthanasia.

But in 2015, when he was Archbishop of Manila, Cardinal Tagle called for the Church to reevaluate its “harsh” stance on homosexuals, divorcees and single mothers, saying that past harshness had done lasting damage and left people feeling “marked” and that each individual deserved compassion and respect.

The cardinal was considered a candidate to be Pope since the 2013 conclave, in which Francis was elected.

Asked a decade ago how he viewed suggestions that he might be next, he replied: "I treat it like a joke! It's ridiculous."

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Nationality: Congolese

Age: 65

It is very possible that the next Pope could be from Africa, where the Catholic Church continues to add millions of members. Cardinal Ambongo is a leading candidate, originally from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

He has been archbishop of Kinshasa for seven years and was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis.

He is a cultural conservative who opposes blessings for same-sex marriages, stating that "unions of persons of the same sex are considered contrary to cultural norms and inherently evil."

Although Christianity is the majority religion in the DRC, Christians there have faced death and persecution at the hands of the Islamic State jihadist group and associated rebels. Against this backdrop, Cardinal Ambongo is seen as a fierce advocate for the Church.

But in a 2020 interview, he spoke in favor of religious plurality, saying: "Let Protestants be Protestants and Muslims be Muslims. We will work with them. But everyone should maintain their identity."

Such comments may make some cardinals wonder whether he fully embraces their sense of mission – in which Catholics hope to spread the word of the Church throughout the world.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Nationality: Ghanaian

Age: 76

If elected by his peers, the influential Cardinal Turkson would also have the distinction of being the first African Pope for 1500 years.

Like Cardinal Ambongo, he has claimed he does not want the job.

"I'm not sure if anyone aspires to be Pope," he told the BBC in 2013.

Asked if Africa had a good chance of providing the next Pope based on the growth of the Church on the continent, he said he thought the Pope should not be chosen based on statistics, because "these kinds of considerations tend to muddy the waters."

He was the first Ghanaian to become a cardinal, in 2003 under Pope John Paul II.

Like Cardinal Tagle, Cardinal Turkson was considered a potential pope a decade later, when Francis was elected. In fact, bookmakers made him the favorite before the vote.

A guitarist who once played in a funk band, Cardinal Turkson is known for his energetic presence.

Like many cardinals from Africa, he leans conservative. However, he has opposed the criminalization of homosexual relations in African countries, including his native Ghana.

In an interview with the BBC in 2023, while Ghana's parliament was debating a bill imposing harsh penalties on LGBTQ+ people, Turkson said he felt homosexuality should not be treated as a crime.

In 2012, he was accused of making frightening predictions about the spread of Islam in Europe at a Vatican bishops' conference, for which he later apologized. /Telegraph