Albin Kurti won convincingly inside Kosovo, but another difficult test may be outside it. The mandate given to him by the people in the elections, with over 51 percent of the vote, comes after a period of tense relations with Western allies, to the point that strategic partnerships themselves began to waver.

Tensions were fueled by a series of actions by Kurti's previous government - from the installation of Albanian mayors in Serb-majority municipalities in the north, to the closure of most Serbian institutions - which were described by the international community as unilateral, uncoordinated and problematic for the Serb community.

At the height of the crisis, in 2023, then-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken strongly condemned such actions, which he said were “against the advice of the US and Kosovo’s European partners.” He also warned of consequences for bilateral relations between Kosovo and the US.

And the consequences were not long in coming: just a few days later, Kosovo was excluded from the "Defender Europe 2023" military exercises, of which it was the host.

For Kurti, now in retrospect, "the burden has been worth the rent," as Serbia's parallel structures have been eliminated and the state has extended law and order.

"We are friends despite criticism. We are not true friends if we fail to normalize criticism of each other," Kurti told Channel 10 Television in Pristina last December.

But, in contrast to his statements about "normalizing criticism among friends," the US, last year, accompanied its disagreements by suspending the Strategic Dialogue with Kosovo - a mechanism created to deepen bilateral relations.

Washington's stance was reinforced in December by a meeting of the House of Representatives Foreign Policy Committee, in which Kurti was described as an obstacle to advancing the processes.

In Kosovo, however, the perception seems quite different. With over 51 percent of the vote in the December 28 elections, the Vetëvendosje Movement aims to return Kurti to the head of the government and quickly create new institutions – a step that looks set to test both the patience and approach of international partners.

When asked by Radio Free Europe Regarding how the United States plans to cooperate with the future Government, the US Embassy in Pristina emphasized its readiness to strengthen relations, but, at the same time, specified that this will also require the fulfillment of several conditions.

“We look forward to strengthening our partnership with the next Government of Kosovo, including resuming the Strategic Dialogue. Achieving this, however, will require actions by the Government of Kosovo that advance our shared agenda for regional peace, stability, and mutual economic prosperity,” a US Embassy spokesperson said.

Late last year, the US passed the National Defense Authorization Act, emphasizing, among other things, the need for Kosovo and Serbia to normalize relations. Since 2011, the two countries have held negotiations and reached several agreements, but most of them have not been implemented. Since September 2023, there has not even been a single high-level meeting because Serbia has not handed over the suspect in the Banjska attack, Milan Radoićić – a step that Kurti has been continuously demanding from both Belgrade and international partners.

This week, the EU Special Envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue, Peter Sorensen, visited Kosovo, praising the electoral process. The visit came as Kosovo is set to emerge from more than two years of EU sanctions imposed over what he called unilateral actions. Speaking from Pristina, Sorensen reiterated that continuing high-level dialogue with Serbia remains key.

"We continue to work on dialogue issues, with the hope that 2026 will bring what 2025 did not. That is precisely why I started the year with a visit here and then to Belgrade, this week," Sorensen told the media.

After the meeting with Sorensen, Kurti stated that Kosovo is ready for constructive dialogue and normalization of relations with Serbia, but reiterated his conditions: the handover of Milan Radoić and the withdrawal of the 2023 letter, with which Serbia expressed reservations to the Agreement on Normalization with Kosovo and its implementation annex.

Responding to Radio Free Europe on how they plan to engage with the new Kosovo government, both the EU Office in Kosovo and the German Embassy stressed the importance of continuing the dialogue with Serbia and expressed support for it. Meanwhile, the other Quint countries – France, the United Kingdom and Italy – did not respond to the question.

The strong mandate, some analysts say, strengthens Kurti's position vis-à-vis the EU and the US. Florian Bieber, director of the Center for Southeast European Studies, says this gives him political space to continue his current course – even when it means unpopular decisions and tougher stances in the dialogue with Serbia.

"The message to international actors is quite clear: they need to cooperate with Kurti. Like it or not, he is the dominant political actor in Kosovo. Even before, his party was by far the most popular. And, currently, there is no strong political alternative," Bieber tells Radio Free Europe's Expose program.

Lisa Homel, director of the Center for Europe at the Atlantic Council, similarly sums up the situation: “Kurti has an extraordinary and clear support behind him” and this “will encourage him in his relations with Brussels and Washington.” According to her, he will be willing to engage in dialogue, but less inclined to compromise, especially in relations with Serbia.

"Kurti has received the message from the citizens of Kosovo that his stance towards Serbia is popular. This gives him a clear and unwavering position. I do not expect there to be any immediate major progress, but we may see more movements, statements and media events after 2025, as, until now, everything has been blocked by the political deadlock in Kosovo," Homel tells Exposé.

For almost the entire past year, Kosovo was in a caretaker government, after Kurti's party failed to form a new government after the February 9 elections – which led to a snap election process. In this context, Bieber says that Kurti's strong mandate is not simply an affirmation of everything his government has done, but also a public punishment for the opposition's failure to support a new government.

Bieber says the EU's logical response would be to adapt and engage with Kosovo, not isolate it. According to him, the EU should rethink the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, engaging with Kurti as a partner.

"Of course, there is now a partner who could compromise, if there is a will to do so, so that the dialogue can be moved forward to a stage where, at least, the Kosovar side is no longer seen as an obstacle. This would clearly shift the responsibility to the Serbian side and orient the dialogue towards a more constructive process," says Bieber.

During the previous mandate, Kurti often accused European officials of "positioning against Kosovo" and of coordinating with the Serbian side against Kosovo.

Bieber argues that Serbia's authority in Kosovo has been "weakened" by the previous Kurti government and further by the attack in Banjska, which allegedly involved people from the Serbian List. This leaves Serbia in a "weaker negotiating position than it was before," he says.

Homel, of the Atlantic Council, does not expect increased international pressure on Serbia, noting that, in the face of multiple global crises, the Western Balkans are unlikely to be a high priority – especially for Washington. According to her, the resumption of the US-Kosovo Strategic Dialogue, if it happens, would be the clearest signal of how Washington intends to engage with Pristina. From the EU, her expectations are also limited, and not only for the dialogue.

"The Presidency of the Council of the European Union has just started, led by Cyprus, one of the five countries that does not recognize Kosovo. Therefore, it is difficult to see any progress in the enlargement process during the Cyprus Presidency. But, perhaps when Ireland takes over the Presidency in a few months, we may see more visible movements," says Homel.

Based on this, Homel sees a status quo. According to her – far from ideal, but the most likely reality, and the responsibility does not fall solely on the international community.

"One of the most challenging aspects of normalizing relations is that it has to come from the region itself. The international community can express its priorities and ambitions, but, ultimately, the initiative and solutions have to come from Kosovo and Serbia themselves," says Homel.

And we're not there yet... Serbia is engulfed in internal anti-government protests, while Kurti told the representatives of EU states in Kosovo that the next mandate will be "a mandate of large infrastructure projects, oriented towards sustainable economic development."

But at a time when unpredictability has become the norm, no precise date for the formation of Kosovo's new government seems certain. Appeals and vote recounts have slowed the process of certifying the December 28 results, while the law stipulates that the election of Kosovo's new president must be held by March 4. If this step fails, the episode could start all over again... with new elections. /REL/

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