As elections approach, Serbia chooses weapons out of fear of its citizens

Militarization as a false “necessity”

Serbia has begun an accelerated militarization where, according to declaration of Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia, this country will double its military capabilities within a year and a half, creating a sense of urgency among the Serbian people from the strategic encirclement. This militarization becomes even more comprehensive with Serbia's plans to restore compulsory military service and centralization of the army.

To legitimize this course, Vučić's Foreign Minister, Marko Đurić, has DECLARING that Serbia acts on the principles of “realpolitik”, i.e. according to its state interests. In political discourse, this approach relativizes international norms to present the militarization of Serbia as a necessary response to a supposed danger. In other words, the invention of the enemy.

In order to achieve the total militarization and mobilization of society, Serbia has also built a narrative of justification towards international politics and the masses. The narrative is increasingly being built based on AGREEMENT military between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, raising this deal in the framework of propaganda as an alliance against Serbia.

Russian-Serbian synchronization against the Balkans

The acceleration of militarization by Serbia and the construction of a narrative of military encirclement by Croatia, Albania and Kosovo has diplomatic and practical support from Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the media that they are chatting with Washington on the Balkans, specifying Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region. In parallel, he has called on Serbia to reconsider relations with the European Union due to pressure for recognition of Kosovo. But, at the same time, it continues to always keep alive narrative that NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia and Kosovo's independence are violations of international law.

This narrative is constantly reinforced by the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, who in her statements constantly accuses the authorities in Kosovo of CLEANSING ethnic hatred towards Serbs, an identical statement by Petar Petkovic, director of the so-called office for Kosovo and "Metohija" and Alexander Boris-Hartsenko, Russia's ambassador to Serbia, which was said all with a few weeks. Meanwhile, also in line with her boss Lavrov, Zakharova continues insistence that NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia and Kosovo's independence are violations of international law.

These positions are not disconnected from the Kremlin's political line, but directly reflect it. statements of Vladimir Putin, who in December 2025 declared that NATO had "destroyed Yugoslavia and the Serbs."

This diplomatic protection of Serbia by Russia creates a vector system of action, where the global-diplomatic dimension is intertwined with the regional-military one. The hardening of this approach has intensified after the adoption of the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which has made clear the strategic importance of the Western Balkans and the limits of geopolitical changes in the region. In this context, Russia and Serbia are acting in synchrony: either securing their interests in the Balkans, or preparing for a wide-scale confrontation in the event of any global escalation, deliberately bypassing the European Union in the “bargain”.

The militarization of Serbia before the elections

Serbia is expected to hold parliamentary elections in October, November or December 2026, according to declaration Vučić. These elections are taking place in a tense political context, following a wave of anti-government protests and violence. documented state repression against protesters, including the use of sonic weapons. This situation has placed the electoral process under the shadow of fear and pressure instead of competition and political freedom.

Vučić has never Excluding the possibility of returning to the post of prime minister, using constitutional maneuvers similar to the Putin-Medvedev model. However, in authoritarian regimes, the formal position is secondary, what matters is real control over the state apparatus. In this sense, maintaining power is the main objective for Vučić, regardless of the function he holds.

It is here that the militarization of society and the state takes on political meaning. The invention of the external enemy and the construction of the narrative of strategic encirclement serve as two parallel vectors, as one exerts pressure and control over internal opposition, while the other maintains a mobilized and frightened mass. These two mechanisms function in a complementary manner, and whenever one weakens, the other is activated to balance and protect the regime’s interests.

That the preservation of Vučić's regime is also supported institutionally by Russia is evidenced by Agreement of December 2021, according to which Moscow commits to helping Serbia against so-called “color revolutions” and external interference. This agreement makes it clear that militarization and internal repression are not just Belgrade’s choices, but part of a broader authoritarian security architecture.

The militarization of Serbia and Russia's geopolitics in the security architecture

The analysis shows that Serbia's militarization and Russia's diplomatic support are not random or reactive actions, but part of a coordinated strategy with three main objectives.

First, the fundamental goal is to preserve the regime of Aleksandar Vučić. The current regime no longer enjoys sufficient political and social support through democratic mechanisms. For this reason, the government increasingly relies on force, fear and propaganda. The militarization of the state and society, together with the construction of a narrative of siege and permanent crisis, serve as tools for neutralizing internal opposition and maintaining political control.

Second, preserving the Vučić regime allows for the preservation of the current Russian influence in Serbia. In the absence of an equally strong and credible political alternative to Moscow, Vučić remains the key actor for guaranteeing Russian interests in Belgrade. Any uncontrolled change of power would jeopardize this influence, so the stability of the current regime is a direct Russian strategic interest.

Third, this situation creates the conditions for the expansion of Russian-Serbian influence in the Balkans. A militarized Serbia serves as an instrument of regional pressure and as a bargaining chip in Russia's relations with the United States and the West. By keeping the Western Balkans unstable and potentially escalating, Moscow maintains the ability to impose its interests at global negotiating tables.

In this context, the militarization of Serbia is not only an internal mechanism for political survival, but also a strategic component of the Russian authoritarian security architecture. In the event of a deterioration of geopolitical circumstances or a global escalation, Russia has at its disposal a ready and controllable actor in the Balkans, transforming Serbia into an active lever of influence and regional destabilization. Thus, peace and instability are becoming a strategic factor while bypassing the EU in this process is part of the strategy. This does not put the region directly on the brink of war, but in a state of constant tension where peace is always under negotiation.

(The author is a professor at Universum College and an external associate at the Institute for Hybrid Warfare Studies - “OCTOPUS”)