What does the ceasefire in Ukraine mean for Europe?

Several weeks have passed since the "infamous" debate between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump on February 28 in the Oval Office.

Zelensky has now accepted the partial ceasefire demanded by the US, paving the way for negotiations to reach a peace deal with Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been reluctant to accept the US proposal for a complete cessation of hostilities.

So far, he has only agreed to stop attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Putin is most likely weighing the possibility of an eventual collapse of the Ukrainian front, the Telegraph reports.

At the very least, he will seek to consolidate his advantage and negotiate from a position of strength that would allow him to set conditions for peace negotiations.

Read too Putin conditions implementation of naval ceasefire

At a minimum, these conditions would include retaining occupied Ukrainian territory, keeping Ukraine outside Western institutions like the EU and NATO, and avoiding the deployment of NATO forces.

However, even if a negotiation gave him all of this, the geopolitical issue that drove Putin to war would be far from resolved.

Control of Ukraine is a cornerstone of Russia's territorial shield, which it considers essential to its security in the West.

As victorious as it now appears, Russia is far from achieving its goals.

A peace that does not fully meet its security needs will be, for Russia, a bad peace and will leave questions.

As a natural consequence, it is prudent to prepare to avoid or cope with further conflicts in the future.

Negotiations without Europe

With the exception of brief visits to the White House by some of its leaders, Europe has been left out of the negotiating efforts.

It has been ignored for an issue that, if only for geographical reasons, is directly related to it.

This forces European states to confront existential questions, writes yahoonews.

Russia, rightly so, has no imperialist ambitions (although one can never know how it would act if it found a clear path to the Atlantic), but it wants to restore the security shield it lost at the end of the Cold War.

Read too Five things to know about the Russia-Ukraine peace talks

We cannot rule out the possibility that it will insist on this in the future if the geostrategic conditions are appropriate.

This is a source of acute concern for policymakers in Eastern European states, especially those of the Baltic republics.

By itself, Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine the support it received from the West when the US became involved in the war effort.

From a pragmatic perspective, she has little choice.

It will probably accept US efforts to end the war, trying to make its voice heard in the process and, if Russia accepts it, going as far as deploying peacekeeping troops.

European strategic autonomy

Meanwhile, the continent should not abandon the efforts it has begun to strengthen its defense capabilities.

It needs this not only as a deterrent, but also as the only way to preserve US interest in NATO, which remains vital to European security.

Assuming there is no turning back on the political integration project, Europe needs sufficient credible military power (and power projection) if its voice is to be heard in an increasingly harsh international arena.

It is recognized that continued efforts to achieve real strategic autonomy must also cultivate and strengthen the transatlantic bond.

Read too US believes ceasefire in Ukraine war can be reached by Easter

Neither the US nor Europe has any interest in damaging, let alone severing, their relations.

If this were to happen, the US nuclear umbrella would disappear, paving the way for a future full of worrying unknowns in which European states could “fragment” and seek solutions to their own security problems alone.

This, in turn, can lead to all kinds of unpredictable scenarios.

Otherwise, Europe must prepare for a future in which it must confront the Russian threat without the unconditional support it has received so far.

Europe must rise to this historic moment and seize the opportunity to grow as a global actor. /Telegraph/