What does Trump's push for peace in Ukraine mean for China?

By: Simone McCarthy/CNN
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Clarity is beginning to take shape around US President Donald Trump's plans to end Russia's war in Ukraine, with his administration appearing to accept some of the Kremlin's key demands, including that Ukraine not join NATO and not return to its pre-2014 sovereign borders.

Amid the chaos that the change in the previous US position on peace seems to be creating, another priority of the administration is emerging: shifting attention from Europe to China.

Speaking at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that "grim strategic realities prevent the United States from focusing primarily on the security of Europe."

One of the main areas of US focus, according to him, should be border security, while another was Beijing.

“We also face a rival in the Chinese communists, who have the ability and intent to threaten our homeland and our core national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth said. “The United States is making it a priority to prevent war with China in the Pacific.”

Beijing is undoubtedly closely following Hegseth's statement, which comes at a time when the US has intensified its economic competition with China, imposing a 10 percent tariff on all Chinese imports earlier this month, with the possibility of imposing additional tariffs.

China has welcomed what has been a warmer-than-expected start to the Trump administration's second term, with the American leader consistently expressing positive views about Chinese President Xi Jinping and the potential for cooperation between the two countries.

Officials in Beijing also likely hoped that the shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump would weaken American alliances in Asia. China has been irritated by the strengthening of relations between the U.S. and partners such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines during the administration of former President Joe Biden.

It is now clear that they will be closely watching how the US might adjust its stance and focus in the region where Beijing hopes to expand influence and strengthen claims over the South China Sea and over the self-governing democracy of Taiwan.

They likely have another pressing concern: whether Trump's rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin will pull Moscow - a key ally for the Chinese leader in his rivalry with the West - away from Beijing and closer to Washington.

Xi and Putin touted a “borderless” partnership just days before Russian tanks crossed the border into Ukraine. The two have further strengthened cooperation during the war, with China emerging as an economic lifeline for Russia, including supplying dual-use goods that NATO leaders say are bolstering Russia’s defense industrial complex. Beijing has defended this stance as normal trade.

Their relationship has long been built on a shared disdain for NATO and U.S. alliances in general. Putin and Xi have worked together to create non-Western international blocs, while intensifying joint military exercises and supporting each other in forums like the United Nations.

This means that a warming of relations between Putin and Washington could have a broad impact on China's ability to resist pressure from the US and advance Xi's vision of an alternative world order, independent of American influence.

Meanwhile, observers say Beijing may also be closely watching how the US and the international community will manage a potential resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, given its own ambitions for Taiwan.

China's Communist Party claims the island as part of its territory, despite never having ruled it, and Xi has vowed to take it under control - by force if necessary.

Speaking to CNN's Kaitlan Collins on Wednesday, Trump's former national security adviser, John Bolton, said that Beijing now sees the US as a power that is "unwilling to act against unprovoked aggression in the heart of Europe."

"What are they thinking about Taiwan now?" Bolton said. /Telegraph/