What awaits Kosovo as the EU begins lifting measures?

The European Union has announced that it will begin the gradual lifting of sanctions against Kosovo in January.

The sanctions were imposed in the summer of 2023, after official Pristina implemented the results of the disputed elections in the Serb-majority north, despite warnings from Brussels.

This step could revive Kosovo's European hopes, as 2026 could be the year when the EU membership application, submitted at the end of 2022, will be reviewed for the first time by the European Commission.

There is also a possibility that the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, mediated by Brussels, could resume after a two-year hiatus.

The sanctions have been controversial and unprecedented in the EU's relations with an aspiring member state.

They were not sanctions in the full political and procedural sense, so in Brussels circles they were considered more like "measures".

EU sanctions must be presented to the 27 member states through a formal legal act and approved unanimously. This happened, for example, in 2019, when Brussels froze assets and banned visas for individuals from Turkey - an EU candidate country - over its unauthorized gas drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In the case of Kosovo, no such procedure was followed. Instead, the then EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, sent a letter to member states outlining the measures and recommending that capitals implement them, although there was no formal obligation.

The Directorate-General for Enlargement - the EU department that deals with countries aiming to join the bloc - has subsequently notified Kosovo of the measures that will be taken against it.

These measures have been mainly of an EU internal nature; they have included freezing funds for Kosovo from the EU's common budget, suspending high-level visits, and not holding meetings of the Stabilisation and Association Council - the main political mechanism of Brussels-Pristina relations - until further notice.

Although there was no formal unanimity among EU member states for imposing the measures, there have been calls for their removal.

When Borrell - in one of his last actions before leaving office in 2024 - requested the lifting of the measures, there was no consensus and the initial decision remained in force.

A new dynamic in favor of Kosovo has been created with the start of work of the new composition of the European Commission at the end of 2024, when some European diplomats have assessed that the outgoing Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelyi, who came from Hungary, had "a particular sympathy" for Serbia and has hindered any real movement in favor of Kosovo.

A "gradual lifting" of measures was then announced, but it was not clearly explained which measures would be lifted and in what timeframe.

During 2025, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the EU's chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, visited Kosovo, rejecting the idea that there was a ban on high-level visits.

However, over the past year, no senior Kosovar politician has made a bilateral visit to Brussels.

A major political breakthrough then occurred at the EU-Western Balkans Summit, which was held in Brussels on December 17. On that day, von der Leyen announced that the measures against Kosovo would be lifted.

This decision followed the October local elections in northern Kosovo, which Brussels described as "calm and peaceful", thus reversing the approach it took in 2023.

However, this did not mark the end of the story.

Before the summit, France, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Spain proposed that the lifting of the measures be done in two phases.

According to this plan, half of the frozen money, around 216 million euros, would be released immediately to Pristina, while the other half, 205 million euros, would be distributed after the parliamentary elections on December 28.

The reason was that the immediate release of all the money would give a huge political advantage to the incumbent Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, during the election campaign.

The new condition has been imposed by almost the same states that in 2023 played a key role in avoiding similar EU measures against Serbia, after Serbian militants - with suspected support from official Belgrade - attacked the Kosovo Police in the village of Banjska, leaving an officer dead.

Several other EU member states complained that pro-Serb countries were again instigating actions against Kosovo, but later agreed, wishing to avoid another political impasse.

In the end, Kurti increased the number of votes and the EU immediately announced that the second half of the frozen money would be released at the beginning of 2026.

The problem now is that, although political decisions have been made to lift all measures, the technical work has not yet begun.

The first grant has been “programmed,” meaning it has been earmarked for various beneficiaries in Kosovo, but the money has not yet been transferred.

According to EU officials contacted by Radio Free Europe, the formal step to "program" the second grant has not yet been taken, although it is expected to be completed as a formality in January.

After these measures were imposed in an unprecedented manner in 2023, discussions are also underway in Brussels about what needs to be done technically to lift them.

For example, should EU member states be consulted again in writing or through a Council working group or committee, or can the Commission proceed without obtaining their approval?

What is known for sure is that the European Commission wants to resume engagement with Kosovo.

Few people in Brussels believe that Kosovo and Serbia will be ready to engage in dialogue to normalize relations between them anytime soon, but Brussels' envoy for these talks, Danish diplomat Peter Sorensen, recently had his mandate renewed for another two years.

It is believed that Kaja Kallas, who has yet to mediate any round of dialogue at the highest political level, will try to achieve something in the Western Balkans, after a difficult start she had as the EU's top diplomat.

Given that Brussels has often been sidelined on issues such as peace talks for Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the situation in Iran, EU officials joke that reaching an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia could be the "lowest-hanging fruit" the bloc can achieve at this point.

There is also the possibility that EU member states will agree to send Kosovo's application for EU membership to the European Commission, so that the EU executive can assess whether Pristina could join the bloc in the future.

The Czech Republic, which accepted Kosovo's application during its EU presidency in 2022, was the last country to make a real effort to address this issue.

The five EU states that do not recognize Kosovo - Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain - have blocked any progress and have made it clear to the other member states holding the rotating presidency that they will not address the issue.

Expectations are that things will not move during the first half of this year, while changes may occur when Ireland takes over the presidency in July.

Dublin has made it clear that it is working to complete negotiations for Montenegro's EU membership by the end of the year and that it also aims to bring Albania, Moldova and Ukraine closer to the bloc.

With EU enlargement as one of its top priorities, Ireland may also launch an assessment of Kosovo.

According to rumors in Brussels, Spain - often the most difficult of the five that does not recognize Kosovo - may allow the Commission to make an assessment, as long as this does not force member states to immediately discuss the issue of recognizing Kosovo./REL.