If Donald Trump has the will, Russia's aggression can still be repelled and Ukraine's sovereignty secured.
Source: The Telegraph
Translation: Telegrafi.com
One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's less convincing tactics during the protracted conflict in Ukraine has been to threaten the West with apocalyptic scenarios whenever it found itself in a difficult situation.
Early in the conflict, when the Biden administration was debating whether to supply Kiev with tanks and other heavy weaponry, Putin raised the possibility of the conflict escalating into a full-scale nuclear war. Similar threats were made when discussions were held about supplying Kiev with Western fighter jets, such as F-16 fighter jets, which have since made a significant contribution to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian ground offensives and drone attacks.
Putin has gone so far as to authorize Russia's strategic nuclear forces to conduct a series of exercises, with the sole purpose of intimidating Western leaders. By continuing to offer military support, the West risks forcing the Kremlin to use its nuclear arsenal.
Putin's latest threat that Russia is ready for war with Europe - if European leaders do not accept Moscow's maximalist territorial demands for an end to the conflict in Ukraine - should therefore be seen in the context of Putin's meaningless boasting and not as an existential threat.
Putin made his warning after European leaders, along with Ukraine, intervened to soften the Trump administration's initial peace offer to Moscow, which was widely seen as a shameful capitulation to Russia's demands.
But rather than being cowed by Putin's latest "gangster-style" threats, NATO leaders should understand that, in the event of a direct military confrontation with Russia, they undoubtedly have the upper hand.
As NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized in October - following deliberate violations of the airspace of several member countries by Russian fighter jets - Moscow must be careful, because the alliance's overall military power is "far greater" than what Russia has at its disposal.
Russia violates NATO airspace: Russia is intensifying efforts to test NATO's defensive capabilities by violating its airspaceSource: The Telegraph
That's not to say that Putin's angry speeches haven't always backfired. One reason the war in Ukraine has dragged on for almost four years is because former US president Joe Biden has been terrified that any of his actions could provoke the Russian despot into escalating the conflict.
Biden repeatedly balked at providing Kiev with the advanced weapons that Ukraine needed to continue its military operations. The result was that the US and its allies ended up giving the Ukrainians the means to defend themselves against Russian aggression, but not the ability to win the war.
It is vital that in the current round of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict, the Trump administration and its allies in Europe do not fall into the same trap as Biden and take Putin's absurd threats seriously.
There have already been encouraging signs that US President Donald Trump, far from being afraid of Putin, is more than willing to play his game.
Trump is no stranger to using risky political tactics - staging a US Air Force demonstration flight led by a B-2 nuclear bomber that has the power to destroy large parts of Russia - to mark Putin's arrival in Alaska in August.
Since then, Trump has significantly escalated his confrontation with Putin, ordering the Pentagon to resume US nuclear weapons tests.
Trump is also keenly aware of the weakness of Putin's domestic position - which undoubtedly explains the Russian leader's recent claims that Russia is winning on the battlefield and that the Russian economy remains strong.
The opposite is true. The Russian military may have made some small gains in eastern Ukraine, but they have come at a terrible cost — in terms of human losses. The fundamental weakness of the Russian military was made apparent in recent photos of frontline soldiers forced to fight without basic protection — such as helmets and body armor.
Trump's latest round of economic sanctions, in which he blacklisted Russia's two main oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, has already had a significant impact on the country's war-torn economy, with recent estimates suggesting that the measures have resulted in the loss of a third of Russia's monthly export earnings.
Russia's oil production is in free fall: Current and projected monthly crude oil production, in million barrels per daySource: Goldman Sachs
Chief among them would be greater enforcement of sanctions imposed against countries like China and India, which continue to buy Russian oil. Another move would be targeting Russia's fleet of shadowy tankers, which are used to transport illicit cargoes of Russian oil around the globe.
And Trump still retains the option of approving the transfer of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Kiev, which would give the Ukrainian military the ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory — a capability that could turn the tide of the conflict decisively in Kiev's favor.
If Trump is truly serious about ending this terrible conflict, then he must understand that Putin will only accept a peace deal when he finally learns that he has no other viable option but to stop the “special military operation” to invade Ukraine. /Telegraph
