The post of president may become part of the "bargaining" for the new government

The preliminary results of the February 9 parliamentary elections in Kosovo do not create an opportunity for any political party to form a single government.

Political experts say that eventual coalitions after the elections could also include the issue of the position of the president of Kosovo, writes Free Europe.

The mandate of the current president, Vjosa Osmani, ends on April 7, 2026.

Based on preliminary results, published by the Central Election Commission, the Vetëvendosje Movement, which received the most votes, has secured 47 seats in the Kosovo Assembly, while it needs at least 61 to form a government.

The Democratic Party of Kosovo secured 25 seats, the Democratic League of Kosovo 20 and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo 8.

Of the remaining 20 seats in the 120-seat Assembly, ten are guaranteed for the Serb community and ten for other minority communities.

The president's issue, in two of the three scenarios for the government

Political analysts believe that the final election result may change minimally after counting votes from outside Kosovo and conditional votes.

But, based on the current results, they say there are three scenarios for the formation of the new government.

The first scenario implies a government formed by the Vetëvendosje Movement with non-Serb communities, a representative of the Serbian community, and an MP from the three previous opposition parties.

A coalition of the Vetëvendosje Movement with one of the current opposition parties, the Democratic Party of Kosovo or the Democratic League of Kosovo, as well as with non-Serb communities, is seen as the second scenario for forming a new government and creating a parliamentary majority.

And, as a third scenario, a coalition between three political parties, PDK, LDK, AAK, and non-majority Serb communities, is considered.

Demush Shasha from the Kosovo Institute for European Policy says that, if the Vetëvendosje Movement manages to form a new government with non-Serb minorities, the issue of the post of Kosovo president will not be on the "political bargaining table".

But, in the other two scenarios, it will not be avoidable, according to him.

"In these other two scenarios, the Vetëvendosje Movement will be together with another Albanian party, or the opposition all together. Here, then, even the post of president is included in the discussions. Simply because there will be more actors involved and each, rightly, will demand their own piece of the pie," Shasha tells Radio Free Europe.

However, he emphasizes that the post of president of Kosovo will not be the primary interest of political entities in the calculations to be included in the formation of the new government, but rather part of completing an eventual agreement.

"Their primary interest will be executive power. It seems to me that the issue of the president will be treated more like those second-order benefits," Shasha estimates.

The election of the president as "leverage" to move to new elections?

Belgzim Kamberi from the "Musine Kokolari" Institute for Social Policy in Pristina sees the situation differently.

According to him, only a "grand coalition" can cause the issue of the country's next president to be included as part of a political agreement.

The Kosovo Assembly must vote for the election of the president with two-thirds of the votes of the 120 deputies it has in total. If the presidential candidate does not receive these votes in the first two rounds, he or she is elected in the third round with the votes of half of the deputies.

If the Assembly fails to elect the president in the third round, then it is dissolved and new elections are announced, which must be held within 45 days.

Kamberi emphasizes that, if the new government is created by the Vetëvendosje Movement with non-Serb minorities or the current opposition parties with non-Serb minorities, the necessary votes to elect the president are uncertain.

The disagreement of one or two ruling MPs in that case, according to him, would fail the election in the third round of voting.

He estimates that the issue of the presidency is unlikely to be part of any agreement for a coalition after the elections, unless a "grand coalition" is reached.

"The issue of the president, in this constellation, can only be resolved by a grand coalition for the government. When I say 'grand coalition', I mean Vetëvendosje with PDK or Vetëvendosje with LDK. This currently seems to me to be the least likely option, unless there is some major international pressure, in this case from the US administration," Kamberi tells Radio Free Europe.

In the last four years, the Vetëvendosje Movement has governed with non-Serb minorities.

After the February 9 elections, Vetëvendosje, PDK, and AAK have stated that they rule out the possibility of a coalition among themselves. Before the elections, the LDK also rejected the possibility of a coalition with Vetëvendosje.

Kamberi sees all political entities as dissatisfied with the results achieved in the February 9 elections, because, according to him, neither the prime minister candidate from Vetëvendosje nor from the opposition would be able to create a stable government.

According to him, the "bargaining" for the post of president would become more of an obstacle than a tool for the formation of the new government.

Moreover, he says, political parties will save the issue of electing the president for later, as leverage for possible political actions a year from now.

"It seems to me that we are in a situation where the parties will make their calculations for a short political electoral term, one year, until we get to the situation of electing the president and, only then, calculate what suits them best. So, should they take the country to elections or give Kosovo a new president or a new president," says Kamberi.

Under the Constitution of Kosovo, the country's president serves a five-year term. His position is largely ceremonial, but he plays a leading role in foreign policy and as commander of the armed forces.

The current President of Kosovo, Vjosa Osmani, took office on April 4, 2021, following early parliamentary elections held on February 14 of that year.

With her Guxo party, which was on a joint list with Vetëvendosje, Osmani was the most voted person in those elections, with over 300 thousand votes.

She was elected president by the Kosovo Assembly in the third round of voting, after receiving 71 votes out of 82 deputies present at her election session.