Source: The Financial Times
Translation: Telegrafi.com
According to Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden's national security adviser, the G7 is "the steering committee of the free world." If so, the free world has a problem. Most of the governments of the G7 countries are so burdened with domestic political problems that they are incapable of running their own countries, much less the free world.
Consider the political situations in France, Germany, Canada, Japan and South Korea (the latter is not an official member of the G7, but regularly attends summits). In France, the government recently fell after failing to pass a budget. A new prime minister has been appointed, but will face the same problems. There is much speculation that Emmanuel Macron will step down as president - before the planned end of his term in 2027.
Germany is heading towards the elections, after the dissolution of the "traffic light" coalition led by Olaf Scholz. Recent elections in Japan saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [PLD] lose its majority – for the first time since 2009, with another pair of elections expected next year. In Canada, Justin Trudeau's approach to a decade in power is coming to an inglorious end. With his party far behind in the polls, the prime minister is under intense pressure to resign.
The peak of democratic decline is in South Korea, where President Yoon Suk Yeol's political position became so desperate that he declared martial law. Popular protests soon forced him to back down, leading to his dismissal from office.
Beyond the US, the only two G7 countries that can claim to have a stable government are the UK and Italy. Britain's Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, won a huge majority in this summer's election. But his ratings in the polls have fallen rapidly. In fact, Starmer is now the most unpopular after five months in office, compared to any British prime minister in the past four decades. Only Italy's Giorgia Meloni can claim to enjoy consistent support – both from voters and markets.
So what is troubling the G7 countries? As always, local context matters. In Japan, corruption scandals have weakened the PLD. Macron and Trudeau are leaders who have lost their luster after many years in office.
But there seem to be two major factors that are making it very difficult for almost all G7 democracies to maintain a stable government. The first is the decline of the political center and the rise of populist parties. The second is the fiscal pressure created by slow economic growth, aging societies, the pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and demands for increased defense spending.
Populism and fiscal problems are feeding each other, making governance increasingly difficult. France's government collapsed after trying to cut spending and raise taxes to combat a budget deficit of six percent of GDP. Since a large part of the French Parliament is in the hands of the extreme left or the extreme right, it is extremely difficult to reach political compromises.
Starmer's large majority in Britain enabled his government to do what the French government failed to do – raise taxes to balance the budget. But the tax hike has contributed to Labour's decline in popularity. The difficulty of finding money in hard times has also played an important role in the political crises in Canada and Japan.
Donald Trump's return to the White House is likely to contribute to the atmosphere of political instability across the G7. Instead of trying to help the governments of his Democratic allies, Trump and his current favorite, Elon Musk, seem to enjoy making things difficult. Maga [Make America Great Again] Republicans especially like to bully left-of-center leaders like Trudeau, Scholz, and Starmer.
Trump has tried to humiliate Trudeau, referring to Canada as the "51st state of America" and its prime minister as the "governor" of this state. Musk has caused a stir across Europe by posting on X: "Only the AfD [Alternative for Germany] can save Germany". He has also held a publicized meeting with Nigel Farage, Britain's Reform leader, who has made it clear he hopes for financial backing from Musk.
Trump's Republicans no longer regard traditional conservatives in Europe as a sister party. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader in Britain, and Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's Christian Democrats, may be disappointed as Trump and Musk move closer to the radical and nationalist right. Christian Lindner, the leader of Germany's pro-business Free Democrats, made a desperate appeal to Elon, informing him that the AfD is an "extreme right-wing party". Touchingly, he seems to have believed that this would persuade Musk to back down.
Merz's CDU party is currently well ahead of the AfD in the German election polls. But populist and far-right parties across the G7 now almost certainly have a friend in the White House. Musk can help parties like the AfD and Reforma with publicity – and possibly finance. But his support can also have negative consequences. France's National Rally, a nationalist party, has a strong anti-American tradition and will be careful not to appear as a tool of rich foreigners.
Trump's interventions may not ensure the establishment of his ideological allies at the top of the rest of the G7. Instead, he could create a situation where the leaders of many of America's closest allies see the US president not as a friend, but as a dangerous political enemy. /Telegraph/
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