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Valicon's first poll for the February 9 elections, these are the results

Valicon's first poll for the February 9 elections, these are the results

Valicon, the leading research agency in the Adria region, in collaboration with its online panel Opinia.Club, has published the largest pre-election survey for the Kosovo Parliamentary Elections to be held on February 9, 2025.

Of the 27 political parties and one independent candidate running in the elections, 4 of them are attracting more than 90% of all votes. These elections are about whether VV will manage to convince the majority of voters to vote for them. There are still 20% of voters who are undecided, which constitutes a decisive force. About 3 weeks until the elections, VV is a clear winner and cannot lose. Currently, PDK is in second place, but according to the potential, LDK has a greater chance and could still take second place.

If the elections were held today, the results would be as follows.


Valicon

Valicon

The projection is calculated only among determined voters who are likely to participate in the vote. The VV party currently has around 50% of the vote (confidence interval is ±3.6%).

Apart from the VV party, only three other parties will reach more than 5%: PDK, LDK and the coalition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, Social Democratic Initiative, Conservative List, Intellectual Forum – E-30. These elections seem to be the question of whether VV will reach a majority or not, as they are on the verge of crossing the 50% threshold. Valicon is a company specialized in providing market research services and statistical analysis.

The results among the general population show current political preferences. The results are similar. What is important is the still high level of undecided voters – 20%. They will play an important role if the VV party achieves a majority of votes.

The potential for tactical voting is not evenly distributed. The image below shows the range between the percentage of guaranteed support (“safe”) and the party’s ultimate reach (“reachable”). The blue area represents highly likely voters, while the green area represents the effect of potential tactical voting in favor of a particular party, the Valicom survey says.

As we can see, the ranges are quite wide and vary significantly from one party to another, meaning that the potential for tactical voting is not evenly distributed across all parties. Also, these ranges are much wider than the statistical confidence intervals.

With over three weeks to go before the elections, VV is a clear winner and cannot lose as the VV and PDK intervals do not intersect. VV could theoretically receive from 40% to 59% of the votes, depending on the final part of the political campaign. PDK currently holds the second position, but according to the potentials, LDK has greater potential and could still take the second position.

AAK-NISMA is theoretically still in the game to take third position.

How were the results achieved?

The survey was conducted using the CATSI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Self-Interview) method, an optimal method for social science research. This survey is significantly different from traditional election surveys: respondents responded using a simulated ballot, where the party rankings and the appearance of the survey reflected what they would see at their polling station.

We publish three types of results that give a complete picture of how the elections have unfolded in the last month.

Political preferences

These are the results of preferences for political parties measured across the entire sample. The analysis therefore includes everyone, including those who will not participate in the elections and those who are undecided. This is a snapshot of public opinion – political preferences among all respondents.

Current election projection

These are the results from a subsample of respondents, which includes only respondents who participated in the election and are determined, i.e. have their preferred political party. This is the best approximation of what the results would be if the election were held at the time the survey was conducted. Therefore, the term “current election projection” is often used, while the longer and more accurate description would be “current results among determined likely voters”.

The potential of political parties

By combining the answers to the questions about the parties chosen as the first and second options, the degree of certainty for the first option, and the likelihood of voting, we identified the following groups of voters:

Sure: Voters who are completely committed to one party and have no other choice. Based on experience from past elections, these votes almost always come true.
Almost certain: Voters who are almost decided on a party, indicating it as their preference, but who are also considering other options. Most of these votes are made, but not all.
Tactical: Voters who have one party as their second choice, but another party as their first choice. These votes can be won by a party if it runs a strong campaign finale or if voters decide to cast a tactical vote.

This analysis provides an overview of each party's potential to win votes, taking into account undecided voters or the possibility of voters switching from one party to another. The result also represents the maximum possible support a party can achieve.

It provides services through various data collection methods, including telephone surveys, online surveys, and face-to-face interviews. The agency covers various areas such as consumer research, public opinion analysis, internal company assessments, and many other services to assist clients in making strategic decisions.

Valicon is known for using modern technologies to collect and analyze data, ensuring that the information is accurate and reliable. It also offers services in the areas of marketing, brand management, and sustainability analysis of products and services./Telegraph/

Valicom Pre-Election Poll Results

More information:
Valicon doo, Pristina 10000, Kosovo
+383 45 540 708 (Ardiana Makolli, CEO)
info.ks@valicon.net
www.valicon.net/kosovo 

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