The conflict between the United States and Iran is "unclear," with several factors pointing to a greater likelihood of war.
The conflict is likely to be a week-long operation that would resemble a full-scale war, rather than the targeted attacks of last summer, sources told Axios this week.
This information leak, combined with an accelerated US military buildup in the region, Iran's refusal to budge from President Donald Trump's red lines during Tuesday's talks, satellite images showing Iran fortifying key facilities, increasing internal pressure within Iran and a dramatic move by Tehran in the Strait of Hormuz, suggests that war is imminent, according to a report by the Washington Post. Newsweek, the Telegraph reports.
Trump sends additional troops to the Middle East
The scale and speed of American military preparations are striking.
Trump has ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, to the Middle East, where it will join the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers already there.
The US has also moved more aircraft and naval assets to the region, and US forces recently shot down an Iranian drone that approached the Lincoln. This goes beyond routine deterrence.
It puts in place the ships, planes, and support needed for sustained air and naval strikes - exactly what would be required for a longer campaign against Iran's nuclear and missile facilities.
'Massive, weekly campaign' planned
Anonymous information to Axios describes plans for a "massive, weeks-long campaign," not just precision strikes, such as those launched by Trump on Iran's nuclear facilities last summer.
This type of communication prepares the American public for a prolonged conflict and signals to Iran that Washington is serious.
It can also make escalation more likely.
Talks reach "Red Lines"
The two sides remain distant from each other in the talks.
Indirect negotiations in Geneva, brokered by Oman, have shown limited progress.
Vice President JD Vance said discussions this week went well "in some ways," but made clear that Trump has set "red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to accept and cross."
The biggest sticking points are Iran's uranium enrichment and missile program.
Tehran insists it has the right to enrich uranium on its own soil and has resisted calls to give up its stockpile enriched to 60 percent purity, just below weapons-grade.
Iran fortifies key facilities
The latest satellite images, published on Wednesday by Reuters, show that Iran has been quietly repairing and strengthening key facilities, suggesting that Tehran is preparing for conflict even as diplomacy continues.
Analysts reviewing Planet Labs and other commercial satellite photos have noticed new roofs and shelter structures being built over damaged buildings at major nuclear plants such as Natanz and Isfahan.
They are being done potentially to hide the activity from international observers and to assess whether valuable equipment or enriched uranium survived last year's attacks.
Some tunnel entrances appear to have been reinforced, and missile bases hit in the conflict have been repaired.
Unrest in Iran shakes leadership
Iran's leadership is also facing increasing pressure at home.
Years of sanctions, deepening economic difficulties, currency instability, and repeated waves of public unrest have strained the political system and eroded public trust.
Inflation remains high, purchasing power has fallen, and frustration has spread to the streets, leading authorities to launch brutal crackdown measures.
And this internal tension is also reflecting in Tehran's external stance.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued stern warnings, arguing that even the world's strongest military could suffer a devastating blow and signaling that Iran has the capability to strike US naval assets if attacked.
At the same time, however, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has struck a more measured tone, saying that a "new window has opened" for diplomacy in the ongoing talks.
Strait of Hormuz closes for first time since 1980s
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire exercises on Tuesday in a dramatic move that was the first announced closure of the key waterway since the 1980s.
About 20 percent of the world's oil passes through the strait.
Iranian forces fired live missiles and restricted traffic for several hours, citing security concerns.
Even if short-lived, this action was a clear warning: any conflict would have global economic consequences.
If Iran were attacked, it could retaliate in ways that disrupt energy markets.
The exercises took place as American and Iranian officials were meeting in Geneva.
As a result, oil prices rose briefly on fears of escalation before falling on hopes that talks could continue.
Gulf Arab states have warned that any attack could trigger a wider regional war, especially after last year's 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran.
High-risk moment
In conclusion, the Newsweek article assesses, these six factors indicate a high-risk moment.
US forces are moving into positions, while diplomacy is deadlocked on core issues.
“Prediction markets” are also signaling high expectations for military action this year.
On the Polymarket platform, the probability of an American or Israeli attack by June 30 is currently around 71 percent.
Others like this are not optimistic that an agreement will be reached.
Still, war is not certain. Talks are still ongoing, and both sides say they prefer a deal. But the warning signs of full-scale conflict are stronger than they have been in years. /Telegrafi/
