By: Rafael Behr / The Guardian
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Before Donald Trump became a politician, he was a real estate magnate. Naturally, he thought he could resolve the war in Ukraine with a real estate-type deal. In exchange for a ceasefire, Vladimir Putin would keep the territory he had already conquered.

But before Putin became a politician, he was a KGB agent lamenting the collapse of the Soviet Union. His idea of a just solution begins with the complete subjugation of Ukraine to the Russian imperial motherland.

There is no evidence that Trump was ever horrified by this ambition or the atrocities committed in pursuit of it. But now he declares that he is “very unhappy” with the Russian president for escalating hostilities, defying the White House’s efforts to end the fighting. What angers the American president is not the killing, but the ingratitude. Trump offered Putin a large part of Ukraine (even though the territory was not his to give), and all he wanted in return was the opportunity to boast about his status as a peacemaker. Russia’s refusal to trade on these terms makes the White House look powerless — which is the best way to irritate an angry ruler.

The manifestation of this anger is the agreement to supply Ukraine with vital missile defense systems, as well as a threat to impose “tough” tariffs on Moscow - unless a ceasefire is reached within 50 days.

That is enough time for Trump to return to his old habit of pandering to the Kremlin. His terms are also notoriously flexible. It would be premature to celebrate the US president’s admission that Putin “cheated” him — as a sign of strategic enlightenment, much less an affirmation of solidarity with Ukraine. The president who this week spoke of Kiev’s right to self-defense is the same one who just five months ago scorned Volodymyr Zelensky as the author of his nation’s misfortune and as a fraud who lured Joe Biden into giving precious American resources to a lost military cause. Favors denied and then given can be withdrawn. That is the Trump way.

The current position may be temporary. That doesn't mean it lacks substance. The essential difference is that Zelensky and his European allies have convinced Trump that they are paying the price for the war; that Ukraine's independence is not a sham.

The first stage of this persuasion was the creation of a joint investment fund for the exploitation of minerals, oil and gas in post-war Ukraine. Washington's 50 percent share in these resources was presented as "repayment" for military aid.

Then came the commitment of NATO members to increase their annual defense budgets to five percent of national income — within a decade. The alliance’s annual summit last month was organized almost entirely to present the pledge as a personal homage to Trump. It was not a graceful spectacle. Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general, did not dignify his office by calling the American president “grandpa.” But it seemed to have impressed the intended audience. At the post-summit press conference, Trump spoke with unusual warmth about European resolve.

That goodwill was on display again this week in a White House broadcast, where Trump, with Rutte at his side, declared that “having a strong Europe is a very good thing.” He again referred to the “very successful” NATO summit, the five percent pledge, and a new agreement under which the missile defenses that Ukraine urgently needs — the extremely effective system — would be delivered to the EU. Patriot — will be bought on behalf of Kiev by its allies on the continent. Trump’s point was not to emphasize that the cause is just, but that others are footing the bill. (This shift in stance reflects a judgment that Europe is a better customer than the Kremlin.) NATO money beats Putin’s lies. For now.

This is a relief for Ukraine, but nothing more. PatriotThe tanks help to protect cities under fierce Russian bombardment, but they will not significantly change the balance of power on the wider battlefield. The Kremlin continues to advance slowly, paying a terrible price in human lives. Ukrainian forces continue to defend heroically and sometimes mount spectacular counterattacks, but their courage cannot indefinitely bear the weight of a larger population.

Putin’s plan is more arithmetic than strategic. He aims to send soldiers into what Russians call “cannon fodder” until there are no Ukrainians left with the strength or weapons to fight back. That’s why the economic front — especially sanctions targeting Moscow’s ability to generate revenue from oil and gas exports — is so vital. And that’s why Trump’s willingness to step up this effort, if he’s sincere, would really matter.

Putin may rightly think it’s a bluff, or a passing whim. But it’s also possible that the Russian president has overdone his moves. He has less control over events than his biggest admirers or his most anxious critics believe. Kremlin propaganda cultivates the myth of a great, visionary leader who walks through history. This figure is often seen from the outside as the shadow of an all-powerful puppet master pulling strings to bring down Western democracies.

The truth is still ominous, but it is more banal. Putin is the “chief of chiefs” in a gangster kleptocracy where the secret services are the most powerful clan. We find the ultranationalist ideology and the cult of personality around the president embedded in all public discourse as a test of loyalty. It is not known who really believes this narrative, when the penalties for the wrong word are severe. The economy is completely focused on war - from industries that produce ammunition to rewards for volunteers and compensation for the families of fallen soldiers, which supports remote regions where military service is the only employment opportunity.

Putin has repeatedly told Russians that they are engaged in an existential struggle with the West, akin to resisting the Nazi invasion in 1941. If he were to stop the war now in exchange for a piece of eastern Ukraine, it would not be the victory he has promised. He has mobilized patriotic sentiment to silence any doubts about the wisdom of this war — and the expected reward is national glory. If the war ends on poor terms, he will face angry mothers who have lost sons in vain. He will have to find civilian jobs for disillusioned veterans. These are the problems he would like to postpone. It is easier to continue on the conveyor belt of death than to descend to a deal like the one Trump has in mind — a deal that, it must be noted, is still terribly generous in its reward for unprovoked aggression.

Putin’s reluctance to choose that option is not the choice of a grand strategist, just as neither was the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Plan A was to invade Ukraine within days. The Russian president grossly underestimated his opponent then. Plan B is slow slaughter and patience, hoping that the other side will run out of ammunition and will. Keeping Trump hopeful could prove to be another serious error in judgment. Ukraine and its most trusted allies should hope so — and seize the advantage while it lasts. /Telegraph/

Opinions