As Arctic ice melts and geopolitical tensions rise, NATO's northern flank is emerging as one of the alliance's most important and neglected "theaters."
And Europe is now facing a bitter truth: it is strategically unprepared to play a role in a region that is expected to become a key military and economic corridor, according to a Euronews article, reported Telegraph.
According to him, most European allies may not have agreed with United States President Donald Trump's aggressive policy on the Arctic, but most seem to agree with the gist of his message: the Arctic needs special attention, and it needs it fast.
Their problem: they lack both the doctrines and the military capabilities necessary to implement them.
On a military level, the Arctic is essential for the defense of the North Atlantic, especially given that Russia's Northern Fleet outnumbers NATO's capabilities.
"When we talk about the protection of the UK, the gap between Greenland, Iceland and the UK in particular is very, very significant," Anthony Heron, a research fellow at the Arctic Institute, told Euronews.
According to him, "any opposing force or army that approaches the United Kingdom is very likely to come from the Arctic region."
Monitoring that space, he added, depends on ongoing domain awareness across a vast, sparsely populated and “environmentally hostile” region.
And this awareness is not just about military actions.
Beneath the ice lies the infrastructure that supports modern economies: underwater cables and power lines that carry vast volumes of data between Europe and North America, which are attractive targets for espionage and sabotage.
Other Arctic cable projects in the pipeline include Far North Fiber, which aims to connect Japan to Europe via the Northwest Passage, and Polar Connect, which plans to provide secure connectivity across the Arctic to Asia and North America.
"Awareness of the importance and the ability to track submarines in the Arctic are key to ensuring these undersea cables and power lines are safe," Heron said. "If such lines were to be cut, it would be catastrophic for the economy."
Climate change is also creating new shipping routes through the Arctic, which would significantly shorten transit times compared to the Suez and Panama canals.
But they also introduce a new layer of strategic competition.
Russia, Heron points out, is likely to expand its military presence to protect these lanes, increasing the risks to NATO if it fails to respond.
"If we sit back and miss the opportunity," he warns, adding that "this will really cause economic turmoil."
The capacity problem
However, despite the region's growing importance, NATO's position in the Arctic remains uneven and heavily dependent on the US - and Greenland is a concrete example.
"When we talk about Greenland, it's primarily an American presence in terms of satellites," says Heron, although the island is "very, very well placed in terms of domain awareness and early threat detection," particularly for tracking Russian movements through the GIUK gap.
This support reinforces a broader structural problem.
While Denmark, Sweden and Norway have long invested in cold-weather forces – NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe last month described their capabilities as "extraordinary" and "uniquely positioned to strengthen NATO's northern security and the Arctic" – other European allies are lagging behind.
"The neighboring Arctic states, and that includes the United Kingdom and France, do not have a specific Arctic doctrine," Heron said.
More fundamentally, decades of underinvestment by NATO allies mean that there are currently few modern capabilities deployed in the Arctic, and simply moving assets and resources there from other theaters is not possible due to the difficult conditions.
And while NATO does not maintain a year-round presence in the Arctic, Russia has around 30-40 specialized bases and improved airfields scattered around its Arctic territory.
"Not every capacity you have elsewhere can simply be transposed to the Arctic and function there," Verineia Codrean, head of strategy at Euroatlas, tells Euronews.
Her company, which has contracts with many European governments, produces advanced autonomous underwater vehicles with an endurance of up to 16 weeks.
This is because the Arctic's extreme cold, ice cover, and remoteness degrade all systems that work well in milder environments, from drones and sensors to basic communications and navigation equipment.
Investment problem
The Arctic, which covers approximately 4% of the Earth's surface, imposes serious technical constraints.
"If you look at an area like Greenland or the North Pole, there is no fixed infrastructure," James Campion, CEO and co-founder of Swedish deep-tech company 6G TERASi, tells Euronews. "Any defense force operating in the area would have to bring all that equipment with them."
Even deploying communications can become a major logistical undertaking. Traditional military radio towers used by the military can take hours to assemble and require large teams to deploy in difficult conditions.
Campion's company offers a system that combines lightweight radio equipment with drone platforms that would require only one person to deploy - although it remains experimental and with limited range.
It will be deployed for the first time in March with the aim of subsequently increasing the system's range.
Cold weather also shortens durability.
Frost can immobilize drones within minutes, batteries drain quickly, and even cables can become brittle and snap.
The alternative would be to use satellite-based services which can provide coverage, but they bring their own weaknesses.
"These systems are starting to come under threat," Campion thinks, "and they are also under the control of third parties that may or may not be aligned with our interests."
But this is just the tip of the iceberg.
The challenges become even more acute for the skills needed under the cover of ice.
Navigation near the magnetic pole is difficult, communication is disrupted and resurfacing may be impossible for long periods due to ice cover, Codrean said.
"In the Arctic, 24 hours doesn't get you that far," she said.
Systems considered long-range elsewhere barely manage to find the surface area needed in the Arctic.
This is because drones usually have to return to the surface or fly past sensors to transfer the data they have collected.
"If that asset isn't able to go very far and needs to be recharged every couple of days, then you have to bring it back. And where would you bring it back if there's ice around you? If you have to bring it back to your starting point, it can't go that far."
New platforms, such as autonomous underwater vehicles powered by “hydrogen fuel cells,” can operate for weeks or even months under ice, but these capabilities are still in their infancy.
And it is perhaps under the ice that new capacity is most needed, according to Codrean, because the new cables to be laid will require basic mapping of the seabed.
"The future of Arctic security will be decided underwater, not in the air or on the ice," she told Euronews.
European strategic autonomy, she added, "will not be built through diplomacy alone, but through sustained underwater capabilities."
In this regard, there are signs that European governments are beginning to view the region much more strategically.
France, for example, published a defense strategy for the Arctic last year, reflecting a growing recognition that the Arctic offers long-term military and economic advantages.
But doing so will require difficult compromises.
"The brutal reality is that it will require significant investment," Heron said. "This will obviously naturally draw funding from other areas that the NATO public may be unhappy with." /Telegrafi/
