The La Niña phenomenon is losing strength, a signal for major climate change in 2026.
The La Niña phenomenon, which has significantly affected global climate conditions in recent months, is rapidly weakening over the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The latest data from the ocean and atmosphere show that cold anomalies in the Pacific are fading, especially in the western part, which indicates that significant changes in the global weather system may occur during 2026, writes Severe Weather.
Although the influence of La Niña on the atmosphere will continue during the first part of winter and early spring, long-term models increasingly clearly show a transition towards the El Niño phenomenon, which could begin during the summer and be fully consolidated by autumn.
This change has important consequences for Europe, including Croatia, especially in the context of the winter of 2026/2027.
What are La Nina and El Nino?
La Niña and El Niño are part of the climate system known as ENSO, which describes the alternation of cold and warm phases in the equatorial Pacific.
Although these processes occur far from Europe, they strongly influence the distribution of high and low pressure areas in the atmosphere, as well as the directions of the major air currents that shape weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
During La Niña, persistent easterly winds near the equator strengthen, pushing warm surface water toward the western Pacific, while colder water from deep below rises to the surface. But in recent weeks, this pattern has begun to change.
A strong westerly wind is developing in the western and central Pacific, which is driving ocean surface warming and destroying the cold water layer typical of La Niña.
Signs of change
Sea temperature analyses show that cold anomalies are shifting from west to east, and this is happening earlier than usual for such events.
At the same time, beneath the ocean surface, at depths of about 100–250 meters, a large “pool” of warm water is spreading. This subsurface warming is one of the first and most reliable signs of the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon.
However, the atmospheric effects of La Niña do not disappear immediately.
The atmosphere reacts more slowly than the ocean, so its impact can be felt months after sea surface warming. For this reason, La Niña is expected to be in effect at least through the early part of spring 2026.
Impact on Europe and the Balkans
During this period, according to long-term averages, a warmer trend is observed in Europe in the western and west-central parts of the continent.
This phenomenon is related to lower pressure over the North Atlantic, which strengthens the westerly flow towards Europe.
Such a circulation usually brings milder air, moderate temperatures, and less penetration of cold continental air from the east, thus also affecting the upcoming winter in the Balkans.
What does the second half of 2026 bring?
The main change is expected in the second half of the year. All relevant seasonal models agree that La Niña will end relatively quickly, and that the El Niño phenomenon could begin as early as the summer of 2026.
By early autumn, the warm phase of ENSO is expected to be fully established, which could peak during the winter of 2026/2027, with the possibility that its impact will last even longer.
For Europe, El Niño usually brings more pronounced changes in the circulation over the North Atlantic. Historical data shows that such winters are often characterized by unstable weather conditions, stronger cyclones and greater temperature contrasts.
A particularly important element is that during the winter with El Niño a “corridor of cold air” often forms, which can extend from the southern part of the United Kingdom, through Central Europe, to the southeast of the continent.
Along this corridor of cold air, the potential for snowfall increases, including over central parts of Europe. This pattern may also occasionally affect Southeast Europe, increasing the chance of snow and significant cold air intrusions towards the Balkans.
Dynamic winter 2026/2027
For the Balkans, such a development would mean a more dynamic winter, with greater chances of snow inland, more frequent changes between warmer and colder periods, and more pronounced cyclonic situations over the Adriatic Sea. Instead of long-term stability, there is a greater likelihood of sudden weather changes.
Although it is still early for detailed predictions, the direction of development is clear: La Niña is weakening faster than expected, the ocean is warming, and the atmosphere will gradually follow this signal during 2026.
Spring will still retain signs of La Niña, but summer and autumn pave the way for El Niño, which could strongly affect the 2026/2027 winter in Europe, including the Balkans. /Telegraph/
