Is Kosovo at risk from fires and floods? World Bank Climate Report

A few days ago, the World Bank published a report on the climate and development of Kosovo.

In this summary for Kosovo, in the climate section it is stated that Kosovo's climate change policies are, in part, shaped by various external drivers and international commitments; internally, Kosovo needs to make more progress, not only by intensifying its climate ambitions, but by strengthening its capacity to realize these ambitions.

Although it is not a party to either the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, Kosovo has established equivalent voluntary national commitments.

"In addition, as a contracting party to the Energy Community Treaty, Kosovo is committed to harmonizing its energy and climate legislation with the acquis of the European Union (EU), thus contributing to the goal of Europe becoming the first climate-neutral continent until 2050.

The Law on Climate Change, approved in December 2023, is the legislative basis for planning and establishing institutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Despite the establishment of such commitments, the institutional maturity for the implementation of climate policies in Kosovo is just beginning to be established (classified as "emerging" by the World Bank's Climate Change Institutional Assessment).

Considerable work is being done to strengthen the institutional capacities of the country, but they still have a long way to go before they can be assessed as mature", this report states.

According to the WB, the country's human capital also needs to be developed substantially to ensure that Kosovo is ready for the green transition, and it is estimated that more than 40 percent of the country's human capital potential is currently untapped.

Unlike most other BP6 countries, Kosovo's population of working age (age 15-64) is growing, Telegraph reports, referring to the World Bank report.

Long-term planning for improving education and training outcomes will be vital to give the country's relatively young population the best chance of becoming highly productive.

"As a landlocked country in Southeast Europe, in the center of the Balkan Peninsula, Kosovo is vulnerable to climate risks. The country is often exposed to forest fires, floods and landslides.

Currently, 36.8 percent of the total area of ​​Kosovo is under medium fire risk and 15.8 percent under high fire risk. In addition, the mountainous areas of the country are exposed to the risks of floods", the report states.

According to this report, the severe floods that occurred in 2013, 2014 and 2016 resulted in total estimated damages of more than 4 million euros.

"Kosovo is also prone to droughts, earthquakes and heat waves. Extreme climate events often cause severe damage to critical infrastructure, leading to the risk of cascading effects and exacerbating the vulnerabilities of key economic sectors, particularly agriculture, forestry and water.

Also, these climate effects are localized and exacerbate existing socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Vulnerable communities and municipalities with declining populations, as well as new expanding urban areas, are more exposed to floods and other climate risks. According to all scenarios of the representative concentration pathways (RrPQ) of greenhouse gases, Kosovo may suffer substantial economic damage from climate change. It is estimated that if no investments were made to adapt to the changing climate, by 2050 there would be a significant decrease in production as a result of natural hazards, namely a decrease of 5.1 percent of GDP in the scenario with RrPQ 2.6, 4.2 percent in the scenario with RrPQ 4.5 and 4.0 percent in the scenario with RrPQ 8.5", it is further stated.

In the summary of this report, as Telegrafi reports, it is stated that limited resources and expertise, coupled with the disconnection between national and local authorities, become an obstacle for Kosovo's disaster management capabilities, requiring more investment to improve coordination, to raise of capacities, to support a better understanding of risk, to improve information systems for early warning, as well as to increase community engagement.

"The costs of adaptation investments are undoubtedly high, but the costs of inaction are even higher, as are the benefits of action.

Kosovo will need to invest about 2.8 billion US dollars (in 2020 dollars, without discount) over the next decade to protect citizens and property from the harmful and escalating impacts of climate change.

This initial comprehensive package of adaptation investments would have costs equivalent to about 0.6–0.9 percent of GDP per year by 2050. Adaptation investments would provide a 'AAA Rating Dividend' with three types of benefits: losses avoided, economic potential accelerated, and associated social and environmental benefits amplified.

The implementation of climate adaptation actions at the national level would greatly reduce human and economic losses from climate disasters and events and facilitate the development of human capital," the report states, among other things. /Telegraph/