Kiev can still snatch victory from Putin's jaws

Source: The Daily Telegraph
Translation: Telegrafi.com

The United States Administration's sudden willingness to authorize Ukraine's use of advanced weapons looks like a classic case of delayed and insufficient action. However, this does not mean that this action cannot help to change the course of the war in favor of Kiev.

Joe Biden's belated decision to allow Kiev to use long-range missiles against military targets in Russia. it comes after months of resistance to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's demands to use these weapons for their primary purpose: defeating Russian forces.

After humiliating the Democrats in the last US election, Biden has reversed course and promised to provide Ukraine with as much military aid as possible - before leaving office. This includes permission to use the US Army's Tactical Missile Launcher System (ATACMS) against targets inside Russian territory, as well as the supply of anti-personnel land mines.

Biden's previous reluctance to approve the use of long-range missiles – supplied by the West – across Ukraine's borders has been tantamount to forcing the Ukrainian military to fight with one hand tied behind its back. The Russians have been able to attack Ukraine without fear, from the safety of their bases inside Russia, while the Ukrainians have been limited to attacking Russian positions only within Ukrainian territory – at least in terms of using missiles.

This significant limitation has had a tangible impact on the course of the war, enabling Russian forces to take territory - for the first time since the start of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" against Ukraine in February 2022. The reason Washington is now supplying the front line with landmines is to prevent a major advance of Russian forces against Ukrainian defensive positions before Biden leaves office.

This depressing reality is a sharp critique of Biden's continued reluctance to support Ukraine. But the belated admission that more needs to be done to prevent Putin from declaring victory - which would have devastating consequences for the West - means the Ukrainians may still have a chance of inflicting a significant defeat on Moscow.

The Ukrainians' urgent need to stop Russia's military offensives, hitting key targets inside Russian territory, was clearly demonstrated by the speed with which Ukrainian forces carried out the first attack with ATACMS to Russia, firing six long-range missiles at a Russian ammunition depot in the Bryansk region, near Ukraine's northern border. It is also reported that the Ukrainians used a long-range missile, Storm Shadow, supplied by Britain, to attack a Russian base in Kursk – a Russian border province partially taken over by Ukrainian forces in August.

Retaking Kursk is now one of Putin's top priorities as he wants to avoid the humiliation of becoming the first Kremlin leader to lose Russian territory to foreign forces since World War II. For this purpose, the Russians have engaged 10 North Korean troops to free the territory from Ukrainian control.

The involvement of North Korean forces in Putin's war effort is said to be one of the factors that finally convinced Biden to lift restrictions on the use of Western long-range missiles, a decision that could be crucial to Ukraine's chances. to prevent Moscow from retaking Kursk.

Another important consideration for Biden is the imminent return to the White House in January of Donald Trump, who has promised to end the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Ukraine was a major topic when the two leaders met to discuss transition preparations at the White House last week, with the outgoing president telling Trump that allowing Putin to declare victory in Ukraine could ultimately lead to Washington's involvement in a wider European conflict.

Trump, as someone who likes to take credit for any deal he negotiates, will want to appear in a favorable light if he succeeds in brokering a deal between Moscow and Kiev. Giving Ukraine the opportunity to go on the offensive and gain a battlefield advantage would certainly help Trump justify the heavy spending Western nations have made on the Ukrainian cause.

Also, Putin's latest attempt to scare the West by raising the specter of a nuclear catastrophe should not be underestimated. This has been a recurring tactic of Putin since the invasion of Ukraine, especially when the Kremlin finds itself on the defensive. While Putin's nuclear threats have succeeded in persuading Biden to exercise discretion in his support for Ukraine, overt acts of intimidation — like his latest attempt to lower the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine and its allies – are nothing more than blackmail.

Putin and his army of profiteers in the Kremlin are well aware of the dire consequences for Russia to use even one of its tactical nuclear warheads against Ukraine.

After more than a thousand days of fierce conflict, hope remains alive that Ukraine, with the effective support of the West, can still emerge victorious. /Telegraph/