Israel will tear apart the Western alliance

Source: The Financial Times
Translation: Telegrafi.com

The war crimes indictment of Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is a disaster for Israel. It is also a big problem for the Western alliance.

Israel is enjoying full bipartisan support in the United States as it tries to challenge International Criminal Court [ICC] charges against its prime minister and former defense minister. However, most governments in the EU, as well as those of Britain, Australia and Canada, are likely to comply with the lawsuit. Despite the reluctance, they will have to arrest Netanyahu if he steps into their territory.

Even in normal times, this rift between the US and its main allies would be very difficult. But these are not normal times. Donald Trump, who will take office as president on January 20, has already promised to take actions that deeply threaten the interests of America's friends.

Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 10-20 percent, which will hurt European and Asian exporters. His commitment to the NATO alliance has been called into question. Also, his plan for a peace deal with Russia could endanger the security of Europe.

Another bitter transatlantic confrontation – this time over Israel – is the last thing the Western alliance needs. But this is exactly what is happening.

Some Israeli ministers already happily predict that the Trump administration will allow Israel to formally annex occupied parts of the West Bank and Gaza. The EU would consider such an action dangerous and illegal.

The Trump administration will almost certainly push forward with sanctions against the prosecutor and the staff of the ICC. Also, in Republican circles there is talk of destroying the court, possibly threatening the countries that fund it with sanctions. Japan, Germany, France and Britain are the four largest contributors to the IPR.

Neither Israel nor the US appear interested in dealing in detail with the specific charges in the indictment, which include allegations that Israel has killed civilians and used "hunger as a weapon of war". Instead, the Trumpist right supports Netanyahu's claim that the ICC is driven by anti-Semitism. It ignores the fact that the court has also indicted Vladimir Putin, Hamas and many African leaders, while the court and its European supporters will be branded as Jew-haters.

The reality is that most European governments have strongly supported Israel since the atrocities of Hamas on October 7, 2023. More recently, Britain and France have participated in military actions to defend Israel against Iranian missiles.

Some EU countries, such as Germany, are so committed to Israel that they may disassociate from the International Criminal Court [ICC], despite accepting its legitimacy. However, the instinct of most European countries is to combine support for Israel's right to self-defense with support for an international legal system that applies the rules of war.

The issues at stake extend beyond the immediate question of possible war crimes in Gaza. Most medium-sized democracies in Europe and Asia understand the danger of returning to a world where the great powers and their clients act with impunity.

Some violations of international law – such as flouting a World Trade Organization ruling – may not seem too terrible. But Russia has already demonstrated that ignoring international law can mean the occupation of territories, the kidnapping of children and the massacre of civilians.

The legitimacy of the international campaign to deter Russian aggression is based on international law, where the ICC's indictment against Putin is a central issue. If America, which welcomed the indictment against Putin, now turns against the ICC – and the international legal order it represents – then the chances of convincing the skeptical world to implement sanctions against Russia, Iran or North Korea are significantly reduced.

The new clash between the US and its allies over Israel is part of a much wider debate about the future of the world order. John Ikenberry, of Princeton University, claims that Trump is turning the US into a revisionist state that challenges every element of the liberal international order it once built: free trade, openness to immigration, multilateralism, security alliances, solidarity among nations. democratic and the protection of human rights.

The ICC is a relatively new addition to the international legal system, beginning operation in 2002. The US, Russia, China, India and Israel are not among the 124 countries that have accepted the court's jurisdiction. But its deliberate destruction would send a dangerous message – at a time when authoritarian powers are increasingly confident of starting wars and committing human rights abuses.

As the most powerful country in the world, America may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something only weak Europeans need to do. But even the powerful USA needs allies and global rules.

The coalitions America is building against Russia and China are based around appeals to international law. The US has used legal justifications to support its opposition to China in the South China Sea and to Russia in Ukraine. Even the Russians and Chinese always try to pretend that they are acting in accordance with global rules. They know that flagrant violation of international law loses a country allies and exposes it to sanctions.

International law can be frustrating and its operation can seem disorganized. But a world without law will be a scary and dangerous place. /Telegraph/