By: Micah McCartney / Newsweek
Translation: Telegrafi.com
Recent moves by China reveal that it has not forgotten the territory lost in the Russian Far East during the “Century of Desecration.” This has fueled speculation that the world’s longest land border could be open to Chinese encroachment, even as Beijing and Moscow — “borderless” partners — appear increasingly coordinated on the global stage.
Changes to Chinese maps and border disputes
China's Ministry of Environment ordered in 2023 that new official maps must include cities in the area - such as the Siberian city of Vladivostok - by their official names. Another change was the depiction of an island at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers - which has been the subject of a long-standing dispute and a 2008 border agreement - as entirely Chinese. Increased Chinese purchases of farmland and multi-year lease agreements across the border have also raised concerns.
Strategic partnership and power imbalance
Meanwhile, Chinese nationalists openly call for the return of territories forcibly taken from Tsarist Russia by the weakened Qing dynasty in the 19th century. These calls are not echoed by Beijing, which has downplayed the map changes while regularly emphasizing the importance of relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin - who stood in a place of honor next to Xi during the Victory Day military parade in June in Tiananmen Square.
China has also supported Russia since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the heavy international sanctions that followed. As one of the largest buyers of Russian natural gas and oil, China has helped prop up Russia’s wartime economy. In turn, Russia benefits from record trade with its neighbor and the use of the Chinese yuan for payments, helping to cushion the impact of the SWIFT exclusion.
The partners are increasingly coordinating diplomatically, leading to a potential multilateral order in opposition to US-led hegemony. This includes intensified joint exercises in the Pacific, which are seen by the US and its allies as a challenge to Washington's military dominance in the region.
However, concerns have emerged in Russia about becoming a "second-rate partner" in this relationship, with some Kremlin-linked propagandists warning that excessive reliance on China could backfire.
Strained but stable relationships
A report of New York Times-it earlier this year cited a leaked Russian intelligence document revealing concerns about Chinese plans to expand its influence. The report highlighted a degree of mistrust on both sides, with Chinese agents reportedly recruiting Russian citizens with Chinese spouses and conducting polygraph tests on agents returning from the Eurasian country.
How much China intends to take advantage of the growing power imbalance with Russia remains unclear, with some observers arguing that concerns are exaggerated.
Chinese territories ceded to Russia in 1858 (red) and 1860 (yellow).
The border rivers that separate Russia, China and North Korea.
"Xi Jinping sees Russia as an irreplaceable strategic partner in building a post-US-led world order," Patrick Cronin, director of Asia-Pacific security affairs at the Hudson Institute, told The Washington Post. Newsweek"The reconciliation of these opposing impulses suggests a strategy of slow and steady accumulations of effective sovereignty, punctuated occasionally by performative displays of solidarity - from parades to joint military exercises - that conceal a developing asymmetry."
However, Cronini said that China "seems clearly willing to expand its influence across shared border areas, through a mix of overt cyber interventions and opportunistic moves to anchor itself within Russia's increasingly weakened economy."
The future of China-Russia relations
Lyle Goldstein, Asia director at the Defense Priorities organization, argues that China-Russia relations have never been closer.
"Are there daily frustrations and occasional bitter complaints? Of course," he told Newsweek"The Russians, in particular, are a little bitter that the Chinese haven't helped, for example, more in the Russia-Ukraine War. But, overall, the relationship is healthy and developing strongly in all directions."
“I believe that one of the reasons why the Chinese and Russians are getting along so well with each other is that both countries have experienced considerable strategic pressure from ‘excessive balancing’ by the US and its allies,” Goldstein added. “However, the bilateral Sino-Russian relationship is healthy and stable. There have been no real crises in more than 30 years and, despite some gloomy predictions in the West, I don’t see any on the horizon.” /Telegraph/
