Source: The Telegraph (title: Trump's stunning show of strength is a major gamble)
Translation: Telegrafi.com
Bold strategic coup or reckless act of madness? As news spread that the United States had bombed Venezuela, erasing any trace of the Biden-era reputation as a gentle giant afraid of its own shadow, it became clear that, once again, Donald Trump had caught everyone by surprise. The Colossus of the North has awakened. And he is hungry.
A few hours later, the triumphant president was informing bewildered reporters at Mar-a-Lago that the United States would “run the country” until it could be handed over to a new administration. What? For how long? And with how many divisions of troops? There were no details, but according to him, American oil giants would “make money” in the meantime.
This was regime change in its full form. So much for “America First.”
Trump chose Secretary of State Marco Rubio to speak to the press alongside him. Rubio deserved it: this was his moment.
Hailing from staunchly anti-communist South Florida, a known haven for Cuban and Venezuelan dissidents, Rubio has long argued for regime change in Caracas, hoping it could lead to the overthrow of Havana, a prize the United States has avoided since the days of President Kennedy. That outcome may be uncertain, but Rubio’s faction of old warriors is on the rise.
It was also a blow to Trump's isolationist MAGA faction. Sure, they supported the war on drugs. But this? Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and her anti-intervention clique — who were in favor of a deal with Maduro for his oil — have been completely ignored, just as they were when, last June, they tried in vain to convince the president not to bomb Iran's nuclear sites.
Clearly, this wasn't just about drugs. It should be noted that Venezuela's drug trade lags behind narco-states like Colombia, Mexico, Bolivia, and Peru. Sure, Maduro had white powder on his hands, but was he really the head of the drug syndicate, the Sun Cartel, as the United States alleged in November?
Indeed, the scale of the American campaign went beyond law enforcement objectives. The daring abduction of Maduro and his wife was reminiscent of the killing of Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad in 2011, yet in August the White House increased the reward for Maduro’s capture to $50 million—double that of the al-Qaeda leader.
Venezuela's economy - similar in size to that of today's Iran - is 280 times smaller than that of the United States, but the troop concentration, which included 10 people, dozens of warships, fighter jets, submarines and the fearsome aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford, constituted America's largest mobilization since the Iraq war.
This was a global show of force. In November, the Kremlin said it was open to arming socialist Venezuela with Oresik - his most advanced hypersonic missile, to counter the American threat; Maduro had also requested military assistance from Beijing and Tehran.
So much for that. Meanwhile, regional narco-states and far-left regimes like Cuba, which are allies of Beijing and Moscow, have been shaken. Will they unite around their flags in a challenge? Or will they bow to the madman? After this weekend, an answer seems possible.
The consequences of this new Trump on "steroids" have only just begun. Consider the bloody and cunning Islamic Republic of Iran, which a few days ago was threatened by a president "ready to shoot."
Kasra Aarabi, a British analyst on Iran, spoke yesterday with sources in the feared Basij militia, part of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. “They thought Trump was bluffing about Venezuela,” Aarabi told me. “So they didn’t take his threats against Iran seriously.”
Now they get it. Not only are America’s enemies scared, but its sluggish Western allies — still hurt after he ruined the carnival of recognizing Palestine to end the Gaza war on his terms — are also feeling uneasy. If this man can disrupt our diplomacy and attack Venezuela, what else is he up to?
“I call it the Madman Theory,” Richard Nixon told his chief of staff, Bob Haldeman, as the latter recounted in his 1978 memoir. “I want the North Vietnamese to believe that I have reached the point where I can do anything to stop the war ... I can’t stop him when he’s angry – and he has his hand on the nuclear button.”
Of course, the madman's trick doesn't work unless it's convincing. True or not, Trump's aggression toward Venezuela certainly showed signs of madness. Last month, Washington Post revealed that a US attack on a Venezuelan drug ship was followed by a second strike that killed two survivors trapped in the hull of the ship. “Kill them all,” was reportedly the order from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He has since been charged with war crimes.
But for all his bragging, Trump may not be as crazy as he seems. In 2013, then-Secretary of State John Kerry heralded an era of “equal partnership” and goodwill in Latin America after the Cold War, but Trump’s muscular approach harks back to an older tradition of American foreign policy, in which the White House has resolutely pursued its interests in the region, both economic and ideological, for more than a century.
Beginning with the Monroe Doctrine of 1893, American intervention initially confronted European powers before evolving to combat the Soviets during the Cold War. Between 1898 and 1994, the US caused 41 changes of government in Latin America, 17 of which involved aggression.
In particular, George W. Bush’s 1989 invasion of Panama — followed by Operation Promote Freedom, in which the United States supported the new Panamanian government for nearly five years — helped create the stable democracy we see today. Is this what Trump has in mind for Venezuela?
This is the Donald. Keep everyone guessing, even those on your side. Narcotics may have shaped the narrative, but Venezuelan extravagance is part of Trump’s foreign policy doctrine – from the Middle East to his own backyard. Maneuver; deceive; show great force; strike with ferocity. In this volatile world, one thing is certain: Mad or not, American gunboat diplomacy is back. /Telegraph/
