I don't know if Putin will accept a ceasefire, but I know what he thinks.

By: Orysia Lutsevych / The Guardian (title: We can't know if Vladimir Putin will accept a ceasefire in Ukraine. But this is what he'll be thinking)
Translation: Telegrafi.com

At this stage of the crisis, it is important to have a clear vision. The US-Ukraine meeting in Jeddah was a damage control operation. Both sides restored relations that had been damaged, largely by Washington’s impatience. The US reversed previous decisions in exchange for something that Ukraine was already prepared to offer: privileged access to Ukraine’s natural resources and a willingness to launch a peace process.

It is encouraging to see a renewed US-Ukrainian dialogue to end the war. As Churchill said, the only thing worse than fighting with your allies is fighting without them. The public tensions in the Oval Office, where Volodymyr Zelensky was called a dictator, and the suspension of military aid and intelligence information were difficult to understand. Ukrainians wondered why President Trump was blaming and pressuring the victim while protecting the aggressor. Trump’s “miracle” deal involved bullying the weak and securing the strong. It seemed more natural to him to put pressure on allies, whether Ukraine or Canada, and to ease up on adversaries.

This week’s meeting in Jeddah may have been an attempt by the White House to redress the balance of pressure and expose Vladimir Putin’s true intentions. Earlier this week, the US lifted a freeze on intelligence sharing and resumed security assistance. That intelligence is essential for protecting Ukrainian cities from nighttime aerial bombardments. US satellite imagery and communications systems support several air defense and targeted strike platforms. On the night the delegations met in Saudi Arabia, the port of Odessa was hit, killing four people in an attack on a grain ship. Ukraine is waging a defensive war, and perhaps the White House has realized that its most potent weapon against Putin is Ukraine’s powerful and well-equipped armed forces.

No one wants peace more than Ukraine. When President Trump accused Zelensky of not wanting peace, it may have pleased the Kremlin. Trump was echoing Russian propaganda views. The U.S.-Ukraine meeting refuted this lie and demonstrated Kiev’s constructive and cooperative stance.

The joint statement noted that "Ukraine expressed its readiness to accept the US proposal to immediately implement a temporary 30-day ceasefire, which may be extended by mutual agreement and which is subject to simultaneous acceptance and implementation by the Russian Federation."

So what will Putin do? I think his agreement to a ceasefire will be influenced by two factors: whether his country can continue the war for much longer, and the terms of the agreement imposed on Ukraine. Putin may decide that the cost of losing his country at the superpower table, next to the US president, is greater than the benefits of occupying a few more villages in eastern Ukraine. Therefore, he may accept a ceasefire that provides his temporary benefits: he gets the “gray zone” with a weakened Ukraine outside NATO and an unresolved war that could flare up at any moment. This would mean that Ukraine would have to continue to spend a large part of its national budget on defense, weighing on the economy and making it difficult to fulfill its EU integration agenda. Meanwhile, Putin would secure a “land bridge” connecting Crimea to Russia via the shores of the Sea of ​​Azov.

A ceasefire would provide Russia with much-needed economic relief and give it time to rebuild militarily. Given the ongoing destruction of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine, they too will need time to repair. To that end, the lifting of Western energy-related sanctions will be essential to securing new equipment. The pause also allows for the regrouping of manpower, as Ukraine has killed or wounded nearly 80 percent of the ground troops Russia has mobilized for this war. Russia has struggled to take large parts of Ukraine due to a lack of personnel and military equipment.

The final push to stop the war may come from Putin’s belief in his ability to destroy Ukraine from within. The recent US insistence on holding elections and calls for Zelensky’s resignation are also part of the Kremlin’s plans. Putin is determined to destroy Zelensky’s government. The “gray zone” scenario allows the forces of chaos, fueled by disinformation, to undermine pro-democracy parties. The blame for this no-war-no-peace situation will fall on Zelensky. Issues such as war trauma, a lack of foreign investment, and a renewed exodus of people once travel restrictions are lifted make a ceasefire a risk for Ukraine. A ceasefire that does not lead to a just solution would worsen regional security in the long run.

Ukraine may not have all the cards in its hand, but it is not bluffing when it says it will not capitulate to Moscow’s demands. Support for Zelensky remains high. Despite its difficulties with military personnel, only 38 percent of Ukrainians believe that Kiev should agree to give up sovereign Ukrainian territory to Russia. This attitude is largely driven by the perception that Russia is waging a genocidal war to destroy the Ukrainian nation – 87 percent of Ukrainians believe that Moscow will not stop at the current front lines.

If the US can curb Russia’s appetite and force it to see the ceasefire as the beginning of a genuine solution, then peace has a chance. If not, a quagmire will be created that will sink Ukraine and further weaken the rest of Europe. Moscow is already engaged in an unconventional war with the West; but Western intelligence assessments show that it is preparing for a direct conventional conflict. The stakes of these peace negotiations could not be higher. /Telegraph/