How China and Taiwan are preparing for war

With China seemingly planning a possible invasion of Taiwan and the self-ruled island preparing to retaliate, Newsweek says it spoke with analysts about the state of preparations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

According to the media outlet in question, US defense and intelligence officials have warned Chinese President Xi Jinping that he has ordered the People's Liberation Army to be at least capable of moving against Taiwan by 2027, reports the Telegraph.

And Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, has said that Beijing's increasingly sophisticated military exercises, including simulated blockades, are "dress rehearsals".

But the gap between the two armies is large and widening, he points out. Newsweek.

China spends roughly 10 times more on defense than Taiwan and now operates the world's largest navy, backed by an expanding missile arsenal and some 600 nuclear warheads.

Xi has pledged to build a "world-class military" by mid-century, a goal widely seen as an army capable of rivaling the US.

On the other hand, Washington has long urged Taipei to invest less in heavy weapons - such as tanks and large warships - and more in asymmetric systems such as drones, mobile rocket launchers and coastal missiles that could slow down a much larger invasion force.

A "frightening amphibious invasion"

"The development of the Chinese People's Liberation Army shows that they are preparing for something - that's for sure," Jyh-Shyang Sheu, a research fellow at Taiwan's National Security Defense and Research Institute, told Newsweek.

But for an invasion, China would have to cross the 80-mile (about 130 kilometers) wide Taiwan Strait.

Therefore, Sheu believes this could seriously hinder any attempt by China to land troops on Taiwan, citing the obstacle that the much narrower English Channel proved to be in World War II.

"When we talk about the English Channel, it's from France to Dover - it's only about 30 kilometers (19 miles), but even that created a huge difficulty for Nazi Germany to launch an invasion (of England)," Sheu said. "So for China, the 200-kilometer distance between Taiwan and the mainland is still a serious obstacle. Even with advanced technologies today, that tyranny of distance remains a huge challenge."

Analysts say only about 14 of Taiwan's beaches could support an amphibious landing - and all are heavily fortified.

Referring again to World War II, Sheu noted that instead of a Normandy-style assault, Beijing would likely combine amphibious, air and helicopter operations to seize airports, ports and bridges that could serve as entry points for follow-on forces.

Air exercises

China has trained its military aviation units for this type of mission and, according to a 2023 report by the British think tank RUSI, may be seeking Russia's help.

The report, based on leaked contracts, said Moscow agreed to train a Chinese air force battalion and supply anti-tank weapons and light vehicles.

"This is because the Russians have much more advanced equipment for this type of mission," Sheu points out. "If this is true, of course China can benefit from this."

For China, the key would be speed, Sheu said, with a focus on weapons systems such as missiles that deny access to the conflict zone to a potential US-led intervention.

Cyber ​​warfare

"Maybe a few days or even within a few hours," Sheu thinks, describing the kind of rapid campaign that China would have to complete before the US or its allies could react.

To this end, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has developed cyber warfare tools and space weapons designed to "blind" Taiwan's early warning systems and disrupt communications and take down critical infrastructure early in the conflict.

The goal would be to "attempt to shut down Taiwanese society and the government system with cyberattacks."

Amphibious forces

Another part of China's construction is a new class of landing craft called Shuiqiao, or "water bridge."

Each ship carries a "movable unit" that allows tanks and vehicles to move directly onto coastal roads beyond the beaches.

"There's been a lot more activity around them over the past year," recalls Bryce Barros, a security analyst and fellow at the think tank GLOBSEC.

"Whether or not they can be used effectively depends on China's complete control of the waters and skies around Taiwan," he told Newsweek, according to the Telegraph. "They are very slow; they are very large; and they are large targets. That means they would need strong air defenses, anti-drone systems, and protection against unmanned surface and underwater vehicles."

Then there is the Type 076 attack ship, a larger derivative of the older Type 075 that functions as a mini-aircraft carrier.

China has also expanded its fleet of civilian "roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro)" ships that would almost certainly be commandeered during a cross-strait conflict and loaded with troops and armor for transport across the strait.

However, to put China's colossal invasion force into motion, "it will really take dominance of the sea and the air - especially the sea," he said.

Taiwan's preparations

Recent exercises in Taiwan have focused on coastal defense and counter-landing operations, while reforms have included improved mobilization of reserves and extending the island's mandatory military service to one year from four months.

President Lai Ching-te has said he aims to increase defense spending to above 3 percent of GDP next year.

Last month, he announced that a new multi-layered network of air defense systems known as "T-Dome" is under development to protect against missile barrages that could lead to a Chinese invasion of the island.

Barros noted that Taiwan is developing unmanned systems - underwater, surface and aerial - as part of an asymmetric strategy aimed at keeping Chinese forces at bay.

"Making sure they're doing everything they can to develop UUVs, USVs and UAVs, especially long-range UAVs, is going to be really critical to maintaining Taiwan's overall defensive posture," he estimates.

Barros stressed the need for improved military training, especially empowering young officers and non-commissioned officers to make tactical decisions on their own.

"Taiwan should focus on ensuring that unit tactics are done at the lowest possible level," he said, adding that such reforms were key to Ukraine's successes on the battlefield against Russian forces. /Telegraph/