Participants in discussions in the Foreign Policy Committee of the United States House of Representatives have called on President Donald Trump's administration to engage more in the Western Balkans to stabilize the region, assessing that Russia, through Serbia, is the main factor for destabilization.

Opening the hearing late Tuesday, the Republican chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Keith Self, assessed that the Western Balkans, aside from Ukraine, which is under Russian occupation, is "the most unstable region in Europe."

Serbia's unresolved relations with Kosovo are one of the main drivers of regional instability, which further enables Russia to undermine the European Union and NATO's ability to strengthen Balkan countries, Self said.

The worsening situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina has led, according to him, to a "great increase in the use of legally questionable powers" of the international high representative, writes Free Europe.

In the event of a conflict, NATO allies – Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro – would be directly targeted, which could lead to the potential activation of Article 5 of the Alliance, Self said, adding that NATO allies in the Balkans should build political and military deterrence together, but that Kosovo would be particularly exposed because it is not part of the Western alliance.

US adversaries are actively exploiting vulnerabilities to wage hybrid warfare that increases instability in the region, Self said, underlining that China is using its influence by conducting military exercises and sending weapons to Serbia.

In addition, he added, China is signing economic agreements across the region with the aim of maintaining its malign apparatus and exploiting corruption in the Western Balkans.

Russia also influences the increase in tensions in Bosnia, in 'Republika Srpska' and in Serbia, Self emphasized, noting that the former president of the Serb entity in Bosnia, Milorad Dodik, is continuing to use his political capital to control 'Republika Srpska' and act in Russia's interests by threatening its separation from Bosnia.

On the other hand, according to him, Serbia, despite indirectly sending weapons to Ukraine, also has defensive ties with Russia and China, and promotes Chinese and Russian propaganda. He noted that in order to end Moscow's political influence, the issue of Serbia's dependence on Russian energy must be addressed.

Despite these challenges, opportunities still exist for improving stability, peace, and prosperity in the Western Balkans, and American leadership must play an important role in preserving stability and preventing the return of conflicts, Self said, applauding the Trump administration for reengaging in what he called an "often neglected region."

William R. Keating, the ranking Democrat on the Subcommittee, expressed his belief that the US should continue to support the future of Bosnia, including the Office of the High Representative (OHR).

He criticized the Trump administration for lifting sanctions on Dodik and his associates, who, he said, have shown little willingness to change behavior in 'Republika Srpska'.

Stressing that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has for years undermined the rule of law and strengthened Serbia's ties with China and Russia, he called on Secretary of State Marco Rubio to strengthen the fight against corruption and the rule of law in Serbia, as well as to make it clear to Belgrade that strengthening ties with Moscow and Beijing is not compatible with the declared goal of integrating into the transatlantic community.

He expressed his conviction that greater American engagement in the Balkans would bring the region closer to EU membership and called on the Trump administration to assure allies and partners in the region that the US will continue to be engaged and committed to its future.

Max Primorac, a researcher at the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the conservative Heritage Foundation, assessed that "the Balkans are not in good shape" and added that "Bosnia is a failed state" 30 years after the signing of the Dayton peace agreement and billions spent in aid by the US.

He said that Bosnia is “in permanent crisis” and that it is time to end the “catastrophic failure of state-building,” stressing that the country’s sovereignty must be restored by closing the Office of the High Representative “which dismisses elected leaders, vetoes laws and bans anyone it doesn’t like.”

The State Department should stop trying to create a centralized Muslim-dominated state, which violates the Dayton guarantee of equality of the three peoples and pushes Serbs towards secession, Primorac said, adding that Croats suffer great discrimination within the larger Muslim community and are denied the right to elect their own representative.

"However, the region will not stabilize until Serbia normalizes," Primorac stressed, assessing that Serbian leaders "remain tied to the pro-Russian agenda that fuels instability" in neighboring countries, especially in Kosovo and Montenegro, and enables Moscow, Beijing and Tehran to undermine NATO's southern flank.

He assessed that the regional response should be to withdraw Serbia and exclude China, Russia and Iran, underlining that "only American leadership can do this", and that "President Trump's global leadership, based on peace through strength and practical diplomacy, offers Serbia and the Balkans a historic path towards integration with the West".

American gas and oil could help end the Balkans' dependence on Russia, remove funding for Vladimir Putin's war machine, and minimize Moscow's interference in the region, Primorac said, assessing that the US government was right to impose sanctions on NIS due to Russian ownership.

"The White House should appoint political ambassadors to the Balkans to promote a business-focused agenda, but be prepared to use visas, banking and other sanctions, as well as trade and investment incentives to wrest the region from Russian, Chinese and Iranian hands," he said.

Luke Coffey, a researcher at the Center for Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute, said that Russia sees the Balkans as an area for causing instability and for the disruption of the transatlantic alliance, while Serbia remains Russia's aide and serves as a major Russian base in the region.

"While Serbia occasionally claims a balanced foreign policy approach, the reality is that Belgrade is deeply anchored in the Russian orbit and that is not going to change anytime soon," Coffey said.

He added that the Kremlin is using 'Republika Srpska' to further spread instability, noting that Dodik, despite being removed from office, remains influential and continues to advocate for secession, which has been supported for years by Russia and Serbia. He also criticized the lifting of sanctions against Dodik and his associates.

Coffey assessed that the Dayton Agreement is one of the greatest successes of American foreign policy after the Cold War and that its undoing would create further instability.

"Although the US is not a Balkan country, it can be a Balkan power, and President Trump should take steps to ensure the protection of American national interests there," Coffey said.

Edward P. Joseph, a lecturer at Johns Hopkins University in the US and an expert on conflict management, said that while no single actor – domestic or international – is entirely responsible for the ongoing tensions and vulnerabilities in the Western Balkans, “one prerequisite for stability remains unfulfilled: Serbia must accept the Western order for the region.”

He stressed that the time has come for the US to be more determined in guiding Belgrade towards a final strategic choice, adding that the Euro-Atlantic path is the only rational choice for Serbia, which, according to him, should not become the Belarus of the Balkans.

“Fortunately, the administration is in a good position to steer Belgrade in this direction,” Joseph said, citing the year-long protests in Serbia demanding accountability from the government after the roof collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station, which was being rebuilt as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The path to lasting stability runs through Belgrade, not through pleading with the government, but through a strong approach and true partnership, Joseph said, explaining that this means the US should not fall prey to Russian or Serbian demands to buy time to leave the NIS.

Pressure should be exerted on Belgrade to nationalize the NIS, as well as demand the immediate closure of the Russian media outlets RT and Sputnik, which operate in Serbia, the imposition of sanctions against Russia, and the closure of the Russian humanitarian aid center in southern Serbia, which is suspected of being used for intelligence gathering, Joseph said.

The US can end Serbia's destructive relations with Russia and China by resolving the impasse with Kosovo, and according to him, "the ultimate answer is not EU-led dialogue, but the path to NATO membership for both Pristina and Belgrade."

"President Trump is well-positioned to present such a transformative offer," Joseph said, noting that the Trump administration is also well-positioned to work with the OHR to resolve the key issue of state property in Bosnia, opening up opportunities for American investors in the country. /REL/

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